Russia Might Talk Tough But its Navy is a Shrinking Wonder

[Onkel Neal]

The Russian Navy is in trouble. After years of coasting on the largesse of the Cold War, Russia’s navy is set to tumble in size and relevance over the next two decades. Older ships and equipment produced for the once-mighty Soviet Navy are wearing out and the country can’t afford to replace them.

As U.S.-Russian relations continue to decline, it’s a good time to look at an arm of the Russian military in control of a hundreds nuclear weapons, most of which can strike the United States within minutes. At the end of the Cold War, Russia, the largest of the ex-Soviet republics, inherited the lion’s share of the USSR’s military equipment. Among naval forces this included several Kiev and Riga-class aircraft carriers, Kirov-class nuclear powered battlecruisers, destroyers, frigates, and more than two hundred submarines—including the enormous Akula-class ballistic missile submarines. Russia, struggling to switch from a planned to market economy, could not afford to maintain such a truly massive force and scrapped much of it, preserving only the newest equipment.

Russia’s naval decline isn’t just a matter of fewer warships but a decline of industry and infrastructure. Russia can’t even build large engines for warships: as Reuters points out, several Russian warships under construction are currently sitting high and dry because they are waiting on gas turbine engines ordered from Ukraine, which was made a bit more complicated after Russia invaded the place. The war between the two countries means it could be years before those ships can hit the water. In late 2018 the Japanese-built floating dry dock PD-50 sank as the Admiral Kuznetsov departed it, leaving Russia without a place to work on large warships.

More details on the diminishing Russian naval force

[Onkel Neal]

Addition: this chart shows the difference between the 1990 Soviet Navy and the 2015 Russian Navy.

[Mr Quatro]

In late 2018 the Japanese-built floating dry dock PD-50 sank as the Admiral Kuznetsov departed it, leaving Russia without a place to work on large warships.

I didn't know that ... with our open society of Russia knowing our ship building industry in Connecticut with EB and Newport News, VA with General Dynamic's (aren't they both the same now?) plus the North and South shipyards we are bigger and better than they are and have been for years.

Which makes Putin' threats of a nuclear war even worse due he's not promising a WWII scenario, but one of total annihilation with fear to start a missile stationing race like they did with Cuba.

Putin wants Trump and the USA to respect his wishes or else ... what else do world leaders have left to do anymore, but threaten one another.

[ikalugin]

The article is quite misinformed, for example:

Russia can’t even build large engines for warships

The production for the powerplants has been localised, with LRIP engines being completed since last year.


However that said Russian Navy is scaling down naturally in many ways down to the size of a normal European Navy in terms of combat ships. You can see it for example in the SSN/SSGN production, with Yasen-M construction rates and production run being about the same as that of Astute class.

[Kapitan]

Foxtrot Alpha isnt a brilliant source they are very misinformed about the situation, one of my key questions during my meeting in St Petersburg was which direction was the Russian navy headed and i put that one to Andrei Nikolaev and Igor also commented.

Both were agreed that the don't need aircraft carriers and if they do build them they wouldn't build them in numbers like the USA has, this also follows the ethos of the Russian navy, back in the 1980's they were a blue water navy and yes today they still are but with much lesser assets.

The 1990's was tough Russia was bankrupt the cost of the cold war was too great for the economy to bear and what is even more challenging is that people today still think and see Russia as some back wards basket case that is still bankrupt and having ques a mile long for a loaf of bread, this is not the case and since Putin came to power Russia and its armed forces have grown steadily and il show you the facts that prove my point.

Economy:

Currently Russia is the 11th largest economy in the world with a GDP of $1.693tr USD, since 20016 Russia's economy has grown from a 0.2% contraction in 2016 to 1.5% growth in 2017 and a further 2.35% in 2018, the current inflation rate is steady at 2.4% this coupled with the fact 4.4% are below the poverty line makes for a stable economy despite the sanctions.

Currently this is the ratings agency outlook for Russia:

Standard and Poor's overall rating BB+ with a positive outlook
Moody's BA1 with an out look as stable
Fitch BBB+ with the outlook positive

Currently the gross external debt of Russia is $531.1bn USD (around 4% of its economy) in comparison to Germany which has a gross external debt of $5.104tr USD (around 70% of its economy)

The public debt owed by Russia is 10.4% of its GDP and is one of the lowest in the world, Germany has a public debt around 64% of its GDP but granted the German economy ranks 5th in the world tables and is number 1 in Europe.

The export economy of Russia is made up of mainly of natural resources such as coal, oil, gas, chemicals but also other finished products like military hardware and electronics.

What is also noticeable in the economy is that currently the unemployment rate of Russia is down to around 3.4% of the population Germany hangs around the same percentage.

Defense spending

In this area Russia ranks 4th by largest defense budget its only beaten by Saudi Arabia China and the United states, currently the Russian defense budget is split 5 ways 1) Army 2) Navy 3) Air Force 4) Border Force 5) Strategic forces.

Currently Russia is spending around 4.3% of its GDP on defense thats around $64.2bn USD and that figure is set to rise the target is to be around $96bn USD but at present it wouldn't be manageable nor sustainable in the long run.

The Navy does get a good share of that budget around 1/3 overall and this in turn finances the up keep of older units as well as construction of newer vessels and maintains facilities and also personnel wages.

Whats the real terms?

Well in real terms what we are seeing is actually a build up but from the bottom up, Russia is focusing on close to home confrontations and thus does not yet require the injection of large surface warships, the old soviet era vessels from the Sovremenny and Udaloy classes remain active a total of around 15 of these two types of destroyers are currently in service and yes they are old but for now they do the job, also in service are the Slava class cruisers along with a single Kirov class battle cruiser, what is very important to note is that the second Kirov admiral Nakhimov repair has been slowed down so we wont be seeing her this year but more likely 2021 this in part is due to the PD50 incident but also an announced decision to build two more project 955 borei class submarines (initially 8 were planned now 10 will be built).

So far we have also seen the completion of smaller stealth corvettes and frigates such as:
Gorshkov Frigate (15 planned 2 completed 2 in build)
Steregushchi corvettes (24 Planned 7 Completed 6 in build)
Sub class Gremyashchi is also being built (4 planned 1 being built)
separate additional sub class based on this design but enlarged this is called the Project 20386 which are the size of a small frigate around 3,500 tons (10 are planned 1 being built),
Also noting that the Grigorovich class is being built this is a sizeable and capable stealth frigate (8 planned 3 completed 3 building)

also being built in numbers are the Buyan and Buyan M these are notable for being able to fire Kalibr missiles they are small craft less than 1000tons and are based around the Caspian sea making them the most powerful units in that region currently 15 are planned 10 are operational and the final 5 are being built, in turn they will be succeeded by Karakurt class which are more able to operate in open waters they also carry the P800 Oniks and are roughly the same size as the Buyan, unlike the Buyan they will be displaced to the Pacific fleet, Black sea fleet and Baltic fleet 22 are planned 4 are completed with 5 in build.

Other areas haven't been neglected either we have seen the new Ivan Gren class amphibious landing ship (LPD) come about with orders for 3 more modified units.

Also new intelligence ships the Yuri Ivanov class 4 are planned 2 are in service 2 being built

We have seen the new Mine sweepers of the Project 12700 Alexandrit class which can double up as off shore patrol craft they have a total of 40 planned with 2 completed 4 building this is also an export option India has already started negotiating licence rights.

Now in terms of numbers yes these small boats may not cost the same as a type 45 or Arleigh Burke class destroyer they are still very capable in local waters, but this is what i mean they are starting bottom up.

What we see is a plan for a major surface warship the Project 23560 Lider class and this if built will replace the slava sovremenny and Udaloy classes, in my theory they would require a minimum total of 20 vessels spread across four fleets (Black sea, Baltic, Northern and Pacific) with the lions share going to the Northern fleet, however it is unclear as of yet if the funding will be approved if they do approve the funding the first steel will cut somewhere in early 2020 (they will debate this around April /May time so stay tuned).

As for the Project 23000 aircraft carrier i don't see this gaining ground too much but they have said they want a new carrier laid down by 2025 but i do believe it will be a modest affair not some super duper 100,000ton nuclear carrier i think this will be a modest 70,000ton conventional power carrier if they do lay it down that it.


We have also noted an upward trend in submarines, recently the Duma announced that two extra Project 955 Borei class will be built taking the total to ten not eight as originally planned.

The new Yasen M are being built at a fast pace there are plans for 10 submarines but i think they need around 25 submarines but currently 5 are being built 2 have been completed .

Smaller cheaper conventional submarines are also on the list including the venerable project 636 Kilo in a heavily modified updated form the 636.3 i know there is around 5 or 6 being built some will be for export, it is rumored as well the 677 Lada class may resume the production as they have re designed the submarine but i cant see this personally.


Whats the current issues in the navy?

Well in my opinion they focus too much on multiple surface units doing the same job in fact a lot of what i listed out above are over lapping sub classes designed for the same mission, they also do not have a clear enough plan for new major surface units, and they are trying to keep old units in service beyond their intended life span.

What i would like to see is an approach based on compromise and short term pain and this is how i would re organize the assets in the fleet.

Scrap the Slava and Kirov cruisers also scrap Kuznetsov funnel the saved money into a new destroyer program with similar proportions to the type 45 so a ship of roughly 530ft and a displacement around 8,000tons conventionally powered.

Once the plan is in place as these units come online start phasing out the sovremenny class then the Udaloys until total replacement with the money saved from not having to maintain the expensive units you could in theory get around 25-30 perhaps new destroyers.

I would also like to see a single class of frigate based around the Gorshkov class again you could funnel the savings in not having multiple classes and sub classes into having a one type you could get around 40 to 50 of these vessels and again spread over the four fleets.

also to scrap will go most of the Auxiliaries and replace them with multi role ships at least 4 in the Pacific 6 in the Northern 2 in the Black sea 2 in the Baltic this would give a better flexibility to a fleet heading over seas.

Do we need a carrier not really in my opinion although 2 modest size carriers one for the Northern and one for the Pacific fleet wouldn't be turned down if funding was there.

Can this be achieved? yes it can be achieved if Russia acts soon the whole plan could be put in place.

Conclusion

Russia today is a shadow of its former self, the pictures Foxtrot Alpha posts of Vladivostok are some what dated as these have all now been scrapped, the waste land of Gremikha has also been tidied up and Russia is also looking to dismantle the two reserve typhoons TK17 and TK20.

I take issue with people that say Russia is bankrupt because i think i have adequately demonstrated its quite the reverse, yes Russia is not 1st world but equally it is not 3rd world either it sits in the middle.

Russia want's a restructured navy one comparable to a large European navy, historically Russia is a submarine navy and they are continuing those roots, but today we see shipbuilding in Russia at its highest level since the 1970's and this shows a return to strength (ok but not on a soviet style numbers match)

Russia is now also adopting a western approach emphasizing quality over quantity and it is working, the latest weapons systems and assets are showing their mark and with the latest quad firing of the beluva missiles shows a return to top rank politics.

Soviet era stuff has been modernized or phased out for example there are only 3 modified Victor III in service and the current Project 971's Akula's are being updated, in contrast the Americans have kept in service the 688's which they are phasing out with the new Virginia class, Russia is doing the same but on a smaller scale.

by 2025 i estimate that there will be very few soviet era assets around the project 971's maybe the last to go because they are being upgraded, the Russians have a great way to keep things going well beyond thier life span, in fact one pacific fleet SSBN the Delta III K44 Ryzan remains active along with special projects submarine BS136 Orenburg, we may also see the remaining Oscar II re worked to carry either the Kalabir or P800 cruise missiles making them a formidable platform.



Mr Quatro i take issue with this:

Which makes Putin' threats of a nuclear war even worse due he's not promising a WWII scenario, but one of total annihilation with fear to start a missile stationing race like they did with Cuba

The Soviets didn't cause the Cuban crisis that little honor was caused by the United states and here's why, prior to 1962 the United states put short and medium range ICBM's in land bases around Turkey that's around 90 miles from South Russia just across the Black Sea, coupled with the failed bay of pigs invasion in 1961 the United States created a hostile Cuban reaction one the Soviets capitalized on.

The Soviets moved the missiles to Cuba not only to threaten the USA but also to make it clear how do you like it in your own back yard.
Be assured this is coupled with illegal over flights of U2 spy planes both over the Soviet Union and Cuba, whats more the "Quarentine line" that Kennedy announced was technically a blockade and was conducted in international waters that under the post and pre dated UN charters can be seen as a technical act of war and regime change again illegal.

After the event the United states agreed to not invade Cuba and the total withdraw of missiles in Turkey.

So i'm sorry but no the Russians / Soviets did not start the Cuban crisis that was down to the USA and its actions pre 1962, i think Otis Pike put it perfectly

"The Russian's wasn't interested in invading western Europe and we knew that they were only interested in protecting their own bloody country"

Sources for financial data:
World Bank
International Monetary fund IMF
Standard and poor
Fitch
Moodys
Official Russian government financial releases 2018
Official German Government financial releases 2018

[ikalugin]

Nominal GDP is a bad measure of an economy in my opinion, PPP is much better for the domestic goods and services.

[mapuc]

Here's my 5 cent on this

It's not what you have in peacetime

It's what you have in wartime and what you can produce.

Markus

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Here's my 5 cent on this

It's not what you have in peacetime

It's what you have in wartime and what you can produce.

Markus

With production cycles of modern equipment and the vulnerability of industries to strategic strikes you fight the war with what you have.

[Kapitan]

PPP of Russia is around $4.1tr USD which is healthy

[jaop99]

The best thing is that nobody should mess with Russia. Like China, they have a large atomic arsenal, any conventional war that goes badly for either of them, can turn into a nuclear catastrophe.

[Georg Lassen]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Here's my 5 cent on this

It's not what you have in peacetime

It's what you have in wartime and what you can produce.

Markus

Navies are different, they are very long term investments.

[Georg Lassen]

Originally Posted by jaop99

The best thing is that nobody should mess with Russia. Like China, they have a large atomic arsenal, any conventional war that goes badly for either of them, can turn into a nuclear catastrophe.

By that logic everyone should just take it up their ass when Russia comes calling.

[Georg Lassen]

The main mission of the Russian Navys surface fleet is protecting the Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk nuclear bastions, their strategic deterrence and second strike cabability.


The attack subs, nuclear and conventional, are tasked with the offensive operations against enemy subs, invasions and LOC.


This dictates the minimum level that Russia will invest in the navy, frigates and submarines will mostly be produced.

[ikalugin]

Current state of the Navy (minus SSBNs, specialist and supporting vessels):

 

There are several keys areas.
- The SSBN program is doing ok, with 5 more Borei-A on the way to begin replacing 6 Delta-IV and 3 Delta-III.
- SSN/SSGNs do not get as much love proportionally wise, with only around 1/4 being replaced with the Yasen-M run (6 boats) with another 1/4 being modernised (5-6 boats).
- SSKs are getting a stop gap Improved Kilo program, which would replace around half of the old boats (6+6). There is some work on new Ladas, but those would most likely stay a very small class till there is a big run of Kalinas.
- Major surface combatants are getting slow (Kirovs) or small (Slavas) refits, there are no significant replacement programs on the horizon (Leader is not happening any iime soon)
- One of the bigger issues is the situation with the escorts, there are around 11 destroyers (3 Sovremeny, 7 Udaloy-I and 1 Udaloy-II) still surviving and their replacement with Gorshkov class FFG is rather slow due to the delays with Gorshkov. The lighter escorts that nearly died as a class in post Soviet era are getting beefed out by Steregushy/Gremuashy class corvettes (light FFGs really, 5+8). There was also a limited Essen class run of FFGs for the BSF.
- For the minor surface combatants while there is a decent program for the small missile ships (Buyan-M 7+6 and Karakut 1+11) that do give new capabilities (Kalibr LAM) but the lack of new small ASW ships and minesweepers/hunters drives some people nuts.
- The amphib construction is rather limited, Navy is waiting to procure big ships.
- There is new construction of supporting vessels such as tankers, etc.
The biggest issue seems to be the industrial side, which did not do as well as some other sectors of MIC in the pre GPV-2020 days.



Overall the missions seem to be:
- strategic nuclear
- defending the Russian coastline
- supporting martime flanks of land forces
- supporting operations abroad (ie Syrian express, Kalibr launches, etc)
with the desired (but not really reacheable) goal to create out of region power projection tools.


What could be quite interesting is how Zircon would come into play in 2020s. Zircon on the Bastion batteries and a number of other platforms could provide a very good (1000km class allegedly) reach, which would solve most of the strike needs in the nearby maritime regions. This is important, as 1000km from our bases covers a lot of key maritime estate globally due to how sprawling Russia is.