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Old 11-25-2018, 01:23 PM   #1
ABBAFAN
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Default Russian warships fire on Ukrainian vessels (apparently)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.tel...-entering/amp/

Has anyone heard anything more substantial about this?
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Old 11-25-2018, 02:18 PM   #2
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The Russians seem to be a bit toujchy regarding that new bridge of theirs. One ship loaded with explosives and being blown up under it could really make a scratch in the paint - and more.



Considering the status of Mariupol and its geographical location, we can expect more tensions about Ukrainian vessel trying to pass that area.
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Old 11-26-2018, 12:29 AM   #3
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Yes, for security and navigational safety reasons we are running fairly tight regulations on how ships pass the straits now, you need (a paid) (locman) pilot on board and so on.


Interestingly Ukraine has just declared wartime (but did not close the border with Russia or end the ongoing trade and economic cooperation), which would allow Poroshenko to remove remaining opposition and get re-elected with single digit approval ratings.

Makes one wonder if their Naval Forces behaviour could be related to that.
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Old 11-26-2018, 05:18 AM   #4
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The UN Security Council will hold an emergency meeting as a result.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-46340283
Oh well, that should sort everything out then
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Old 11-26-2018, 05:28 AM   #5
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The UN has its flaws, so you think it would be better to leave or abandon the UN project altogether, and this will then be the end of problems?
I don't think so.
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Old 11-26-2018, 05:51 AM   #6
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No I don't.

The root of the problem is clearly the annexation of Crimea by Russia.

The point I was trying to make (rather sarcastically I admit) was that the UN have failed since the annexation first took place so what difference/effect will it have now.
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Old 11-26-2018, 06:12 AM   #7
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The UN is a lobby organisation for special interests at one time, and a toothless tiger at another time. Personally, I'm done with it. Cannot take it serious anymore, since long. Their latest stunt, the migration pact, and then the planned refugee pact, is an affront to all people in Western countries and a total disenfranchisment of the native populations in said countries.
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Old 11-26-2018, 09:23 AM   #8
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Without a common platform (the UN) there would be nothing slowing down the great power competition. And in the nuclear age the inevitable general war would be rather uglier than the WW2.
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Old 11-27-2018, 05:07 AM   #9
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I disagree ^ .


However, the incident in the street of Ketch seems to be an effort by Mscow to indirectly enforce recognition of the Crimean annexation. The bilateral agreement between Russia and the Ukraine for mutually agreeing passage of ships by both nations through the Asow Sea and access to the harbor of Mariupol is not the relevant here, more important seems to be international maritime law that guarantees passage of any navel streets by any any ship even if the nations bordering that streets do not agree or like it, and both states have not yet cancelled their membership. Russia benefits itself from that arrangement, considering the sreets linking the Black sea with the Mediterranean, or its passages in past years thorugh the street of Gibraltar or the Channel.The Russian claim the Ukraineans were in Russian waters only holds ground when the Crimean gets recognised as Russian territory. Internationally however the Crimean peninsula still is seen s as part of the Ukraine, and so the waters were the insicdent took place are not Russian territorial waters.


The status regarding international laws and treaties, is crystal clear. I never based my tolerance of the Crimean annexation on laws and treaties, but historical reasons and my sense for Realpolitik and recognition of fundamental Russian vital core interests.


I think the Russian move this time was very stupid indeed. If they want to protect their new bridge from Russia to the peninsula from getting bombed by ship, they should continue doing what they have done all the time: checking the ships wanting to pass, and when they are free of such risks, let them pass. Challenging the international perception of the annexation in this way, was a dumb move, imo. Unneeded. It creates exactly the opposite verbal fallout they wanted to see.
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:04 AM   #10
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A video of three crew members from the Ukrainian vessels seized by Russia confessing to violating a border has been released by their captors.

Footage was distributed by Russia's main intelligence agency, the FSB, and shows interviews with three seamen.

In the footage, they all admit to having violated the Russian border, an act which prompted the military response.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...id=mailsignout
Now there's a surprise
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:08 AM   #11
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A certain blogger posts what are allegedly full audio logs of the comunications.


Skybird, the Russian narrative is that Ukrainian Naval Forces:
1) violated the established procedure (you need to wait your turn for passage and receive a pilot).
2) violated the pre-2014 territorial waters (ie the ones that do not include Crimean waters).
Note that previously when the procedure was followed the Ukrainian Naval Forces ships were allowed safe passage through the Kerch straits.
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Old 11-27-2018, 10:43 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ikalugin View Post

Skybird, the Russian narrative is that Ukrainian Naval Forces:
1) violated the established procedure (you need to wait your turn for passage and receive a pilot).
2) violated the pre-2014 territorial waters (ie the ones that do not include Crimean waters).
Note that previously when the procedure was followed the Ukrainian Naval Forces ships were allowed safe passage through the Kerch straits.
And the real story is that Russia invaded the Crimea. I guess that does not fall under violation of anything.
It is perfectly clear what the russian "facts" are
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:54 AM   #13
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Back to the current situation at the bridge


I'm reminded of Fort Sumter South Carolina 1861.


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Confederate vice president, Alexander H. Stephens, claimed that the war was "inaugurated by Mr. Lincoln." Stephens readily acknowledged that General Beauregard's troops fired the "first gun." But, he argued, the larger truth is that "in personal or national conflicts, it is not he who strikes the first blow, or fires the first gun that inaugurates or begins the conflict." Rather, the true aggressor is "the first who renders force necessary."
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Old 11-27-2018, 11:55 AM   #14
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Ikalugin,

at its tightest point, the street of Kertch is so narrow that its practically impossible to sail in its middle without violating the usually claimed 6 miles zones. Thats why the treaty of 2003 for the shared use of the Asowian and Kertch waterways/waterbodys was formulated to treat much of these as domestic waters of both countries. The strait at the passage under the bridge of the Crimean bridge West of the little island Tusla - that lies in the middle of the street of Kertch - is less than 8 km wide: 3.3 nautical miles.

Its quite clearly about putting pressure on the Ukraine by haunting its trade. The traffic from and to Mariupol and Bjerdjansk must pass through here, else the whole coast of the Ukraine in the region of the sea of Asow would be cut off from naval trade. And that is what this is about, from a Russian POV.


Porochenko on the other hand has become quite unpopular in the Ukraine, and there are upcoming elections. He must do somethign to keep the chances of his fraction and government, thats why he wanted martial law over all of the Ukraine - with parliament now having limited it to 30 days and only some provinces of the Ukraine falling under it. What purpose this ldrve militarily, is beyond me. But the whole manouver is aiming not at the Russian enemy anyway, but at the elections. For Porochenko, this incident is a blessed gift. And who knows, maybe the Russians want rioght this: assist him to secure he stays in power - and can continue to drive deep rifts into the civil society and the unity of the Ukrainian people. It may ocmpare to why Isarael always wanted to stay out of Syria and did noit like the West to move into Syria: for them, Assad was the lesser of the possible evils. For Putin, Porochenko maybe plays right into his intentions.

Russia started this latest of messy events. Porochenko happily joins it and tries to make best use of it for his own purposes.

That he had the nerves to demand German forces (NATO as well, but explicitely German forces) being sent and stationed in this area, I really take queer. Obviously he counts on us and NATO getting drawn into it all. Not only has Gemany not the military means to drop into a de facto embattled warzone that the eastern Ukraine is - demanding anything is what in this situation I take queer for principle reason alone already. We owe neither Porochenko in person nor the Ukraine in general anything. Even just asking, while acceptable in itself, would lead nowhere, since NATO is not willing to confront Russia under real martial conditions, nor is Germany capabe to do.

Putin does like long time ago I predicted: he keeps the conflict constantly simmering, to keep the Ukraine off balance and under threat of destabilizing further, keeping it weak that way. Stable peace with the Ukriane under any mutually agreed conditions - is not in the Russian interest, not locally, not globally.

That is why I am very pessimistic about the forseeable future of this conflict. If one side does not want peace in a war and instead has an active interest in keeping the war going, any negotiating is pointless. And for the West the risk simply is too high, and own interest in the matter to small. Possible that Putin one day may overplay it, and the latter point thus gets a fundamentally changed reevaluation. But this time has not yet come. And that means the Ukraine still is on its own, no matter what anyone thinks of that and what the sympathies are.
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Last edited by Skybird; 11-27-2018 at 02:40 PM.
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Old 11-27-2018, 12:06 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Catfish View Post
And the real story is that Russia invaded the Crimea.
yes, but that is old news, Crimea is never going back to Ukraine. That is like arguing that the Golan Heights still belong to Syria...

Meanwhile the root of the problem is that what Russia did is fine under Russian law since Crimea is part of Russia and what the Ukrainians did is fine under Ukrainian law since Crimea is part of Ukraine...it is a recipe for conflicts.


You will keep seeing these flare-ups until both countries have an all-out war or sign a peace treaty.
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