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Old 01-23-2022, 11:57 AM   #286
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird View Post
For whatever it will ultimately be, the Russians will not ease pressure in this crisis and pull back without having gotten any sort of win, gain, prey, trophy. Just returning to a previous status quo would be an immense loss of face. They will not give up without any sufficient additional gains achieved.

Do they want it all at once or is it enough to get some of the demands ?

Demands like Ukraine and Georgia will never join NATO
or
NATO leave Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Estonia...

It's not going to happen-that NATO leave these countries to them self.

Only thing Russia can get is a promise that Ukraine and Georgia will not become a NATO member.

When it comes to Finland and Sweden I don't know.

Markus
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Old 01-23-2022, 12:13 PM   #287
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I think they are going after something more substantial than just any NATO declaration that I would rule out to ever be given anyway. They want to boost their stand and influenc ein the Ukraine. By proxy forces gianign influence, by a puppet regime installed as the BBC claimed they plan to do, or gaining further ground. They are not dumb, they knew from day one on that their demand that NATO should pull out of Eastern Europe and should declare formal ends to any future NATO expansion to the east, would not be accepted. If NATO would do that, it could quit and dismantle itself immediately, becasue it then would only be mentioned as a joke anymore.

Could also be that they want the Ukraine to be divided.
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Old 01-23-2022, 01:37 PM   #288
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Could also be that they want the Ukraine to be divided.
That is the way I'm thinking.
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Old 01-23-2022, 02:18 PM   #289
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It makes me sad-Knowing Skybird may very well be correct what he wrote and there will come a war. Due to the demands Russia has towards NATO-Demands NATO can't or will fulfil.

A bad feeling I have - An upcoming exercise in Belarus and a huge naval exercise with 140 warship these are to be held in the beginning of the next month Feb.

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Old 01-23-2022, 07:23 PM   #290
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The US has ordered the relatives of its embassy staff in Ukraine to leave amid rising tension in the region. The State Department has also given permission for non-essential staff to leave and urged US citizens in Ukraine to consider departing.


In a statement. it said there were reports that Russia is planning significant military action against Ukraine.


https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60106416
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Old 01-23-2022, 09:32 PM   #291
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I think there are two ways we need to look at this:

Tactical- What can be done now to protect Ukraine?

Strategic- Who are the the next countries on the list?

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Old 01-23-2022, 10:01 PM   #292
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Conspiracy theory:

China and Russia are now allies so I suppose Russia will take Ukraine and simultaneously China will take Taiwan!!
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Old 01-24-2022, 03:24 AM   #293
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Basically Putin wants Russia to be respected, he obviously misses this in seeing NATO grow ever nearer to Russia's borders (see baltic states, Poland etc.) despite the pledges of western states made to the (then) CCCP.

The USA argues that this eastern shift of NATO is not violating the pledge since the CCCP does not exist anymore. They also insist of every country having the freedom and right to decide to join any military treaty, anytime.

The first is a lawyer's argument which is somehow correct theoretically even if it feels definitely morally wrong; the second has more weight.
Ok Russia tries to influence Ukraine politics, but so does the US.

Anyway, the guarantee or assurance Putin wants is that there is no additional country at Russia's borders joining NATO, read: Ukraine.

Let's be honest, Ukraine is neither financially ready or fit enough to join the EU, nor "ripe" to join NATO. It is corrupt even without Russia's or the US's external influence and has to get a grip on its own situation first. Interference from abroad will not help them as a nation.

Would it have been so impossible for 'the west' to agree to this not joining the NATO, at least for the next decade? Especially in this (for the west) weak situation?
Russia could be a valuable partner against China, just in case..
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Old 01-24-2022, 05:16 AM   #294
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It isn't up to "the west" or the EU when it comes to which nations can join NATO. NATO is pro "democracy" in that its up to the population of a country to request that the country joins NATO (via the voting booth and popular sentiment).

If the people want it, it is then up to the government to get its crap in order before it applies for membership (again, via the voting booth and popular sentiment).

NATO doesn't want to expand, NATO wants to keep the peace. Recall why NATO was founded (the destruction from WWI and WWII) in the first place.
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Old 01-24-2022, 06:23 AM   #295
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It isn't up to "the west" or the EU when it comes to which nations can join NATO. NATO is pro "democracy" in that its up to the population of a country to request that the country joins NATO (via the voting booth and popular sentiment) [...].
As you said "it is then up to the government to get its crap in order before it applies for membership", the Ukraine did nothing of the kind.
And when Ukraine requests a NATO membership who decides if they can join?

Quote:
NATO doesn't want to expand, NATO wants to keep the peace.
Tell this to Russia. The only reason for NATO's existence was the soviet CCCP.
Quote:
Recall why NATO was founded (the destruction from WWI and WWII) in the first place.
NATO was founded against the CCCP when the 'Allies' were not allies anymore, "against communist aggression and subversion", not much to do with WW1.
After WW2 soviet Russia proposed a unified neutral Germany as a precondition to remove its troops and end the occupation, but as we know the US were against it - whence East and West Germany until 1989. Not much here forget this.
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Old 01-24-2022, 06:26 AM   #296
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A nation can ask for club membership, this right it has, naturally. But it has no right to expect that the answer necessarily must be what it wants to hear: "Yes". The club has also a right: the right to say "No".



Same is true for EU membership, btw. Other nations (European nations , not Northafrican or Middle East nations, these days one must reiterate this since some EU theoreticists seriously consider these options!) can ask for membership, but they have no claim for that, nor for that even just a formal process gets started.



And I think especially the EU and last but not least the Eurozone has already bitten off far more than it can ever chew. That the EU wants to link EU membership with ECB membership does not make it any better.
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Old 01-24-2022, 06:30 AM   #297
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According to the NYT, the US considers to send several thousand troops to Eastern Europe. Meanwhile the UK also has started to reduce its embassy staff in the Ukraine and to have remaining staff's families being moved out.
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Old 01-24-2022, 09:19 AM   #298
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Catfish; The original idea was to avoid another massive land war in Europe.

The CCCP was "expanding its borders" at the time.
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Old 01-24-2022, 09:38 AM   #299
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Some speculations

Will Russia invade Ukraine ?
If so when will this happen ?
Will Russia invade the entire country or
only the Eastern part of the country ?

I fear Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and it will happen after 10th of Feb-Russia and Belarus has planned an exercise near the Ukrainian border, which could indicate that Russia and Belarus will attack from two side. Furthermore the Russian Navy has a planned exercise in Feb.

This could mean they also going to invade from seaside.

But what do I know-Not much.

Markus
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Old 01-24-2022, 10:11 AM   #300
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Here is a good site that describes how a country can become a member of NATO


https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm


Quote:
countries seeking NATO membership would have to be able to demonstrate that they have fulfilled certain requirements. These include:
  • a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy;
  • the fair treatment of minority populations;
  • a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;
  • the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and
  • a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutional structures.
Has the Ukraine fulfilled these requirements?
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