Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Catfish]

I do not quite believe this, but .. we will see.
IF it happens i hope no one will believe it.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I would say you are both right.

Before and during the war there have been some rumours about false flag operations(seem to remember a few)How many of these has been real-I don't know.

Belarus does not need to have hundred of thousands of soldier-20-40000 is enough to draw Ukrainian soldiers from the 2450 km long front in south and southeast Ukraine -Soldiers who is needed there.

Markus

See, hear of no buildup by Belarus also do not think they got those numbers ready for active service. Most soldiers are conscripts, serving for a period of 18 months if there is a mobilization we would know the Belarus resistance would notice that, and we saw Russia try it certain Belarus will make same mistakes probable worse.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko likely cannot afford the domestic consequences of involving his limited military assets in a costly foreign war. Unsupported Belarusian forces are additionally highly unlikely to be effective, and Russia lacks the reserves necessary to conduct another offensive toward Kyiv. These exercises are undoubtedly intended to posture and threaten Ukrainian border areas, but are unlikely to preempt actual involvement in hostilities. ( https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-june-23 )

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I do not quite believe this, but .. we will see.
IF it happens i hope no one will believe it.

We do not need to believe it, it is for the belarus public opinion to believe it BWaahhh Belarus people do not believe anything this dictator tells them.

[Dargo]

You may spit out your coffee when you read this: "Russia is firing more than 60,000 shells per day — 10 times more than the Ukrainians."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...age-artillery/

[Dargo]

A Jewish, Russian-speaking Ukrainian and a son of Kharkov. This is how he describes himself; 'Tor', commander of the 226th battalion of the territorial defense of the second city of Ukraine. Retired soldier 'Tor' has been fighting since the first day of the war without a single day's break. "As long as the war goes on, we have no leave," he says in a trench in the second line of defense near Kharkov, where he has taken us. A kilometer or two or three away, Russian artillery shells explode.

"They use the same tactics and strategy as in 1943," Tor explains. First heavy artillery shelling to destroy the fortifications. And when everything is broken or damaged, they send infantry. According to him, the Russians do not use modern war tactics. "They enter Ukraine like flies to the ****. There is very good soil here. They have problems with their agriculture. That's why they want our land." He fervently hopes for a quick victory. Not only for his country, certainly for personal reasons: "I want to see my grandchildren. They live abroad, and I can't leave the country. So we have to win, and then I can see them."

10 percent of the men in his unit of "a few hundred" men have now been killed or wounded. And yet he has no shortage of men. "The recruitment of new people is going fine. There are numerous residents of Kharkov who want to defend their city." 'Tor' then takes us to Saltivka, a high-rise neighborhood on the outskirts of Kharkov. The neighborhood has been hit hard by everything the Russian military can shoot with; plane bombs, cluster munitions, artillery shells and cruise missiles. Several times, he sighs deeply to hold back tears. "This hurts," he says softly. "This is my native soil. My ex-wife is from there. My children were born there. This is my place." A little way down the road, he even points to a grove where he had sex for the first time.

The almost total destruction of his neighborhood is a major motivation for his actions as a soldier. "What is victory?" he finally asks himself. "You destroy your enemy and recapture territory. That's one side of victory. The other side is the moral side. For example, when my 5-year-old grandson says he is Ukrainian." Commander Tor fights with his 226th battalion against the Russians near Kharkov, the city where he grew up. A report by David Jan Godfroid from the trenches.

[Dargo]

Ammunition is being taken out of Belarus to Russia. The Community of Railway workers of Belarus reports that loading of ammunition into 100 boxcars for the transportation of explosive materials (Class 1) began in Belarus. The boxcars were rented from the Belarusian Railways by the Department of Military Communications of Belarus and the Central Department of Military Communications of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

According to the Community of Railway workers of Belarus, these boxcars will be used for the transportation of ammunition from Belarus to Russia.
It is reported that at the moment the loading is being held at many large artillery bases of weapons and ammunition. For example, loading operations are held at the military base 67878 (the 46th arsenal of missiles and ammunition) in the village of Bronnaya Hara.

“The amount of ammunition is so large that they can’t organize loading by themselves and send servicemen from other units to help,” the Community says. After the loading, groups of boxcars (6-10 cars each) are sent to stations of the Minsk railway junction, and there they are “hitched” to usual freight trains. Then they’re sent to destination stations in Russia along the route Minsk - Orsha - junction Krasnoye - Smolensk.

https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/stat...54447163146240

[Dargo]

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for the first time revealed the names of the commanders of the troops in Ukraine.

The southern group of the Russian troops, which fought in Zolote and Hirske, is commanded by the Commander-in-Chief of the Military Space Forces of the Russian Federation, Serhii Surovikin. And the group "Center" is led by Colonel General Oleksandr Lapin (this group is also known by the tactical letter "O" and advanced on the Luhansk region and Lyman from the north).

[mapuc]

Another massive bombardment outside Sloviansk



Markus

[Skybird]

The NZZ describes the sober reality of Ukrainian fighters. Grim. Exhausting. If it continues like this, they will lose. Russian artillery firepower simply is too overwhelming and superior.

[ On a sidenote, NATO wants its members to hold ammunition reserves for 30 days. Laughable, isn't it when you see this war. And Germany's reserves are practically emptied. I bet it only is a bit better in some other European NATO member states. ]


----------------


For months, Ukrainian troops in the Donbass have been fighting against a materially superior enemy. Faced with high casualties and a lack of weapons, the situation is becoming increasingly precarious for the soldiers. This is also having an impact on morale.

"We only have our Kalashnikovs and a few anti-tank weapons, nothing else," says Volodimir Babenkо. The captain of the National Guard already fought in 2014. But it has never been as tough as it is now. "We lost so many men," he says. Babenkо's unit has been stationed in Severodonetsk, the hardest-fought town on the entire front line, in recent days. In this dreary industrial town in the Donbass, Russians and Ukrainians are firing shells and rockets at each other at point-blank range.

It's hell there, says Babenkо, who has retreated with his men to the neighboring town of Lisichansk for a few days. Now the soldiers sit on the grass in the shade of a prefabricated building and smoke cigarettes. On the ammunition box in front of them are empty cans of food. The men look battered. Almost all of them wear bandages, their faces are dirty and their looks tired and empty. One can only guess what they went through in Severodonezk.

"For every shell of ours, the Russians shoot down ten," Babenkо says. His troops, he says, are completely outnumbered and outgunned. "Without help, we can pack up and retreat all the way to Lviv right now," one of the soldiers interjects.

Indeed, the pressure from the Russians on the other bank of the Donets River is enormous. The rumble of artillery can be heard again and again across the river, and the bridges between the two cities have long since been destroyed. You can only cross by boat or by swimming, says Babenkо. And that, too, only with enormous losses.

In Lisitschansk, meanwhile, the calm before the storm prevails. The city is deserted, the few civilians are hibernating in cellars, and the streets are littered with rubble and burned-out cars. Soldiers are everywhere. If Severodonetsk falls, this will be the next place to fight. Already troops are preparing, digging trenches and bringing supplies into the city as far as they can.

But to hold it, the Ukrainians need heavy weapons: Artillery, drones, more ammunition and armored personnel carriers. Because four months after the Russian invasion, the front line in the Donbass lacks everything. His army is losing up to 200 soldiers a day, Ukrainian President Selenski said recently.

Many observers estimate the loss figures to be even higher. Like a steamroller, the barrage of Russian artillery is overrunning the Ukrainians. After their troops successfully repelled the Russians in front of Kiev and Kharkiv, Moscow's superiority now threatens to suffocate them in the Donbass.

"We have almost only soldiers lying here," says Vitaly Yaroslavovich, who works as a military surgeon at the civilian hospital in Kramatorsk, just twenty kilometers behind the front lines. "The men are brought in terribly battered, with shrapnel wounds, shattered limbs and severe head injuries."

But it's not just the serious cases that are in the clinic; there are also patients like Serhi, who broke his arm when he had to change positions during the night. "We've been on the front lines for weeks, constantly being shot at and hardly ever sleeping," says the 36-year-old. "In such a state, you're broken, overtired, and something like this can happen."

Serhi, who is actually from western Ukraine, fought as a tank destroyer. In the process, he repeatedly witnessed his comrades reaching their limits. "Especially the young, freshly recruited soldiers are worn down by the constant shelling," he says. Some are so shocked that they have to be withdrawn immediately. "We are therefore literally bleeding to death."

In addition to the heavy personnel losses, there are also material losses. Thousands of vehicles have been lost, and volunteers have long since been buying up the market for used off-road vehicles throughout Europe in order to procure cars for the front. There is even a shortage of ammunition, as most of the weapons factories in the country have been destroyed, and it is almost impossible to find suitable bullets abroad for the Soviet-era weapons.

Western weapons, on the other hand, are still arriving in far too small numbers. This is not only noticeable in the Donbass, but also on the other sections of the front. North of Mariupol, for example, where the line runs through lovely villages and fields, Ihor's anti-aircraft unit is struggling. It no longer has a single missile. "A few days ago, we shot down a Russian helicopter with our last Igla," the 41-year-old says proudly. "Now we are waiting for supplies."

But this one does not come. Instead, the men have to improvise. They drive to the front in their own car, a rickety Lada from 1984, and they also put together their own uniforms and helmets. Normally, a three-man team like Ihor's should cover no more than a kilometer of front. "Here, we are now responsible for four," he says.

The situation is similarly grim for the mortar troops, who have taken shelter in an abandoned homestead and are running low on Bulgarian shells. "Not only do we need new mortars to be able to fire at longer ranges, but we also need the appropriate optics systems," says the 29-year-old, tree-length commander of the battery. "All too often, one arrives without the other."

Fortunately, the Russians are keeping quiet in this section at the moment. There is an eerie silence in the shattered villages immediately adjacent to the front lines. Pigs live in the abandoned houses. Everywhere there is a bestial stench, and in one of the front gardens lies the decomposing corpse of a Russian soldier. "Most of our fighters here come from areas occupied by the Russians," says one of the officers in charge. "They are actually eager to attack, because the opportunity would be good. But they can't because of the lack of heavy weapons."

Morale is not still so intact everywhere. After months of hard fighting and an enormously high blood toll, some soldiers are no longer willing to simply accept the precarious supply situation. In recent weeks, for example, videos of entire units announcing that they would not continue to fight if the situation did not change soon have repeatedly appeared on the Internet.

"I wouldn't go that far," says Andri, who serves as an infantryman with the Territorial Defense and is also stationed in Donbass. "Still, I'm angry with our government. Our army was broken for years and not properly equipped. We were simply not well prepared for this war. Now we have to take the rap for it."

Andri's unit is north of Slowyansk. Here, too, the Russians are pushing toward the Ukrainian lines, and here, too, everything is lacking. But there is another problem: "Many of the locals here don't like us. They see us as strangers and blame us for the war," Andri says.

In fact, the old women in the prefab neighborhood where the troops have taken up short-term residence eye the soldiers with suspicion. "They should all go away," says one of them. "We want this to finally be over."

Most residents of the Donbass speak Russian. That doesn't make them supporters of Moscow. Still, among those who have not fled, there are those who sympathize with Russia. "They're just waiting for us to get out of here," Andri says. Some would even tell the enemy the positions of Ukrainian troops. "I don't understand it," says another soldier who also guards a checkpoint near Slovyansk. "If they don't like it here, let them just go to Russia."

The soldiers look suitably fatigued and jaded. When they're not fighting, they're glancing at their cell phones or listening to music. Many no longer want to talk about the war. Instead, they often just say monosyllables like, "It's okay," or "that's just the way war is." The whole country, it seems, has now settled in for a long fight. The trains that leave the East for the West at night are full of soldiers on furlough.

Many act tough, wearing tattoos and sunglasses. But for just as many, the war is wreaking havoc. "There are no psychologists in our army to take care of this," says Oleh Ladnyuk. "That's why this is left to us." A Catholic priest, he serves as a chaplain in the army.

Since the start of the war, he has been in the front lines almost all the time, ministering to both civilians and soldiers. "Some ask me to pray for them," he says. "Even if they don't want to talk about it, I can feel that they are afraid. I try to comfort them as much as I can."
Military chaplain Oleh Ladnyuk also deals with soldiers' traumas.

In addition, he said, many soldiers are angry and full of hatred. He has talked to them about this again and again, Ladnyuk says. "I tell them that killing is part of war. But also that they should show mercy and treat the wounded or captured Russians well." That doesn't always go over well, he said. He was all the more relieved, he said, when a unit he spoke to actually took it to heart. "I told them you can be a good Christian even in these dark times."

Babenkо and his men in Lisichansk, on the other hand, have completely different problems for the time being. They have to return to the front line shortly and need artillery fire support to do so. But one of the so urgently needed self-propelled howitzers has not arrived. The vehicle is stuck on a country road a few kilometers behind the front.

"The steering doesn't work anymore, the damn thing just goes straight," says one of the men who were supposed to drive the fifty-year-old Soviet 2S1 howitzer into battle. Later, he is joined by the battery's commander, a broad-legged guy in sunglasses and a baseball cap turned backwards. Hard, Ukrainian hip-hop comes out of his Toyota Land Cruiser.

Of the 18 self-propelled howitzers formerly in his unit, only 5 are still combat-ready. "Tell your people in Switzerland we need Paladin howitzers, M777 guns and ammunition, and fast," he says, before giving the order to tow the broken unit away for repairs.

Babenkоs unit can't wait that long. The men return to Severodonetsk shortly thereafter. A few days later, when they finally withdraw, four more of them are dead. They could not stop the breakthrough of the Russians.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

From liveuamap

50°27′N 30°31′E
Ukrainian Military intelligence: 6 Russian Tu-22M3 launched 12 Kh-22 cruise missiles from Belarusian airspace from near Petrykov town near Mozyr in a provocation to drag Belarus in to the war

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Ukrainian forces have been ordered to withdraw from Severodonetsk, according to the top regional official.

The eastern city has endured weeks of bombardment, as Russian forces try to take complete control of the region.

A Ukrainian retreat would be significant because it would leave all of Luhansk under Russian control, except for the city of Lysychansk.

Luhansk, a mainly Russian-speaking region in east Ukraine, is a key priority for President Vladimir Putin.

Together with the Donetsk region it makes up what is collectively known as the Donbas - a large, industrial area which has been the focus of a Russian-backed separatist movement since 2014.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

At the NATO summit in Madrid, Poland will advocate for an increase in the Alliance's presence in the country against the background of Russia's armed aggression in Ukraine.

According to Censor.NET, this was announced by the Minister of National Defense of Poland Mariusz Blaszczak in an interview with polskatimes.pl.

"We are looking for more troops and we want to increase the readiness of allied forces in the event of a threat. I confirm that we are trying to deploy a brigade group in Poland within NATO structures. For several years now, we have been accepting American soldiers on Polish soil, their number is increasing, and maintaining this permanent presence is one of my priorities, "said the Deputy Prime Minister.

He added that each NATO summit identifies priorities and directions for developing the Alliance's capabilities in the coming years. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3350165

[Dargo]

Ukrainian army must give up Severodonetsk, what does this mean?
The Russian capture of Severodonetsk will be a major setback for Kyiv, but whether it is a decisive turnaround in the war over the Donbas remains to be seen. After weeks of fighting over one of the main targets in the Donbas, the governor of the Luhansk region said Friday that a withdrawal was imminent. The Ukrainian military that still controls the area in the industrial zone has been ordered to take up new positions elsewhere, according to Governor Serhi Hajdaj. Where the soldiers will go is still unclear. 'There is no point in continuing to take positions that have been shattered for months, just to stay there,' Hajdaj said in a resigned tone. If Severodonetsk falls into the hands of the Russian army, Kyiv will have lost almost all of Luhansk. The Russians, backed by Ukrainian separatists, still have to capture nearby Lysychansk. But even the fall of this city seems to be only a matter of time. The Ukrainian army has had to watch in recent days as the Russians steadily advance towards Lysychansk from the south. According to the British Ministry of Defense, the Russian army is said to have approached the southern part of this city to within 5 kilometers. There are also reports that in the southern suburbs there is already fighting with the Ukrainian army, but this has not yet been confirmed by independent sources.

Momentum in Luhansk
The advance comes after the Russian army gained strong momentum this week. After weeks of fighting, the Russians managed to make crucial moves to finally take the last vestige of Luhansk. This included capturing village after village in the vicinity of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Artillery shelling was also stepped up. The noose around the neck of Severodonetsk in particular was thus tightened even more. If Severodonetsk falls, President Volodymyr Zelenky and the Ukrainian army leadership will be faced with the choice of whether to defend Lysychansk to the end as well. Hajdaj's words may indicate that a tactical withdrawal may also be chosen here so that the Ukrainian army can concentrate on defending the other part of the Donbas, the Donetsk region. Indeed, since the Russians will also pulverize Lysychansk with their artillery, the battle in this city is in danger of turning out the same way as in Severodonetsk and Mariupol in the south. With the outcome: a Russian victory.

'War not lost'
The big question is whether the fall of both cities will be the beginning of the end for the Donetsk region as well, and thus for the entire Donbas. Since the Ukrainian army still holds half of Donetsk, it will not be easy for the Russians to conquer this region quickly. 'Putin wanted to occupy the Donbas by May 9,' according to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Koeleba. 'It is now June 24, and we are still fighting. Withdrawing from a few battles, does not mean you are losing the war altogether.' Zelensky and his generals hope that time will work in their favor. The longer they can hold off the Russians, the more time the Ukrainians have to get all the heavy Western weapons onto the battlefield. For example, this week, the Ukrainian military received the four U.S. Himars missile systems that can destroy Russian artillery up to 70 kilometers. The US decided on Thursday to send four more. The twelve advanced Dutch and German howitzers have also arrived. 'It will be a hot summer for the occupiers,' tweeted Defense Minister Oleksi Reznikov.

The Russians, for their part, want to take Donetsk as soon as possible to avoid suffering even greater losses. The U.S. military think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has been pointing out for weeks that the Russians have deployed huge amounts of military personnel and equipment in the offensive in the Donbas. And despite Russian supremacy, according to the think tank, the Ukrainians have managed to slow down and weaken the Russians. 'The battle of Severodonetsk will not prove to be a decisive Russian victory' according to the U.S. experts.

[Skybird]

That Severodonezk was lost, was clear since quite some time now. But the defenders delayed the victory for the attackers, and pushed the price upward, which was probably the purpose of the stubborness to not admit defeat earlier. Its more a tactical withdrawel, imo: pull back now so that they can continue to fight on another day.

We now need to give the HIMARS and PZH2000 some time, to see whether they indeed can make the difference that everybody seems to attribute to these systems despite their small quantities. Russian artillery superiority is overwhelming.