Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Poland has sent a “very large number” of tanks to Ukraine, the Polish President Andrzej Duda says.

During the World Economic Forum in Davos, Duda said the transfer had reduced Poland’s defence capabilities.

"We are counting on the support of the community, which is Nato, and we are counting on the support of the USA and also Germany,” he said.

In April, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki admitted for the first time that Poland had sent tanks to Ukraine.

No details have been released, but media reports suggest they have been supplying Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

President Duda said the Polish army was now using a lot of German Leopard 2 tanks.

"If we were supported by our German allies with a batch of tanks that would replace the ones we gave to Ukraine, we would be very grateful. We had such a promise, we hear that Germany is not willing to fulfil this promise, that’s a big disappointment for us," he said.

That seems to be just half of the truth, I meanwhile learned from severla media reports some days ago. The Germans say they had offered the Polish Leopard tanks, of older versions, I assume A4 and A5 versions. But these apparently were not good enough for the Polish, and they refused them, demanding to get delivered the latest of the latest version fresh from factory - tanks that even the Bundeswehr has not been delivered so far.

For free.

Thats what I would call a superb upgrade program. Trade old T-72 for new Leo2-A7s or newer, and for free.

I hack away at the Germans a lot, but here it seems it is the Polish deserving a kick in the lower rear.

Even an older Leo2A4 is an excellent upgrade over a T-72M1D. Mobility, firing precision, crew security and vision/sights do not compare.

[mapuc]

Can Putin prevent it from happening ?

‘Almost nobody is happy with Putin’ Meduza’s sources say a new wave of pessimism in the Kremlin has Russia’s hawks demanding more brutality in Ukraine while others scout for presidential successors

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05...ppy-with-putin

Edit
Does anyone of you have knowledge on or about Military strategy ?
End edit

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Can Putin prevent it from happening ?



https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05...ppy-with-putin

Markus

Let the hawks do their thing, do not disturb their mistakes

[August]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Can Putin prevent it from happening ?



https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05...ppy-with-putin

Edit
Does anyone of you have knowledge on or about Military strategy ?
End edit

Markus

That was an interesting read. Thanks for posting Markus!

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by August

That was an interesting read. Thanks for posting Markus!

I recall a story, posted here in this thread saying that a coup was on its way in Kreml and it couldn't be stopped. This some month ago and Putin is still the President of Russia.

I think Putin will still be around in 3-5 month from now and if he isn't then it will be due to his illness-Cancer(rumour have it that he is suffering from cancer)

Markus

[Dargo]

Russians are pressing on the Ukrainian group located north of Sloviansk, pushing it into Siverskyi Donets river in an attempt to cut it into parts and defeat them. Russians failed at Izyum direction, but they have success in Lyman - reportedly half the town is now captured. Significant problems for Ukrainian group around Lisichansk and Severdonetsk which are under real threat of operational encirclement. 5-6 fresh BTG's have been thrown in against exhausted Ukrainian troops, in addition to air and artillery superiority. Likewise, offensive towards Bahmut from Popasna continues. Bahmut is under very heavy aviation and artillery shelling.

Holding up for now, but the situation is difficult and will get even more difficult. If Siverskyi Donets is crossed, the ‘cauldron’ will start closing. Svetlodar has been abandoned by Ukrainian troops, although the withdrawal was controlled. It appears the Russian command set an objective to put all they have into reaching LPR and DPR borders. For that, they are bringing fresh BTGs formed from reservists, PMCs, units transferred from the Far East, parts of BTG from Belgorod Oblast, Rosgvardia. They continue accumulation and the group will be increased to around 10-12 more BTGs according to Arestovych’s estimates. So the situation is very difficult across the whole frontline.

Something brewing up in Zaporizhye area as Russians formed 3 BTGs in Vasilyevka while attempting to reach Orekhov and Huliaipole, although for now no changes and Zaporizhye residents are not yet recommended to evacuate. In Krivyi Rih direction Russians reached Belaya Krinitsa but it’s very difficult for them due to artillery and aviation strikes and lack of manpower. Mykolaiv and Kherson - no news to report. Why is Russia in a hurry to conduct this offensive? Some crisis is likely brewing, but what exactly is not clear, and someone in Russia needs success. Arestovych believes it is certainly NOT linked to a potential upcoming UAF counter-offensive - it’s too much of a hurry.

The number of Russian emissaries in the West and open attempts to buy votes of politicians/lobbying show Russia’s desire to demonstrate its capability to pull Ukraine into Minsk-3 agreement. Even though Russia suffered many defeats they want the West to believe the war will be long, Putin has ambitions, so they should be given what they want in Kherson and LDPR and then continue business as usual. But Ukraine says there will be no Minsk-3. Gen. Major Kanamat Bitashiev, who was taken down in Su-25 a few days ago. How did he end up there? Feygyn states he started from Krymsk, where a nearly complete aircraft unit was destroyed. He is not alone like that.

This means Russian aviation is having terrible losses in personnel if they have to get in retired, PMC-style types. Also, Arestovych confirms that the Su-34 pilot with his co-pilot who were shot and ejected (we heard intercepted comms days ago), they both have perished. While the fall of Donetsk group will certainly be a very significant morale blow for Ukraine, the war won’t be lost. Just to reach Dneprovetrovsk border, Russia would have to assault at least 3-4 similar localities, which will take 1,5-2 months each. However, Russia is burning staff forces, and soon all they’ll have left will be PMCs, reservists, L/DPR, which will not even resemble a true army. With lend-lease coming within the next 2-3 months, this will reflect on Russia’s ability to defend Ukrainian counter-offensive.

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status...01868617957386

[mapuc]

^ I follow a livestream from Ukraine and we had 4 cameras in 4 different places whereof one of them was outside Slovyansk.

Wow would be a wrong word to use-But by God have I seen explosion, missile firing into the air and explosion some minutes after in the clouds. en mas.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I recall a story, posted here in this thread saying that a coup was on its way in Kreml and it couldn't be stopped. This some month ago and Putin is still the President of Russia.

I think Putin will still be around in 3-5 month from now and if he isn't then it will be due to his illness-Cancer(rumour have it that he is suffering from cancer)

Markus

A lot of these kind of rumours is launched by the boss of the Ukrainian intelligence service and should be seen as part of the war effort, to spread confusion and demotivation amongst Russians. A week without a new go by him is a week not complete.

[mapuc]

In a way I understand them-My Danish friends who can't understand why we are sending weapon and ammo to Ukraine-They motto is: This is not our war and in a way they are correct.

However and this is important...if we do not help Ukraine in their war against Russia, we may in fact end up with a war with Russia (If all these expert who says Putin will continue after he has taken Ukraine are correct)

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

In a way I understand them-My Danish friends who can't understand why we are sending weapon and ammo to Ukraine-They motto is: This is not our war and in a way they are correct.

This is a very german thing to do, just sit it out and make yourself comfortable.
Until the enemy is at our gates, then other nations will do the same as we did before .. nothing.

However and this is important...if we do not help Ukraine in their war against Russia, we may in fact end up with a war with Russia (If all these expert who says Putin will continue after he has taken Ukraine are correct)

Markus

If he had conquered Ukraine he would have probably stopped. Probably. For now. Since no one can know what Putin or his successor plans wouldn't it be better to be prepared?
Also, and this is cynical of course, Ukraine fights the war for Europe. Better support them there than being forced to fight the war in Germany, or Denmark for that matter.
Strategy-wise Ukraine is even fighting for "the west" and its values. I have always wondered if those german Putino-philes would prefer to live in Russia, or Chechenia. I'd propose for them to immediately go there and try it out.

[Skybird]

Die Welt writes this. The general is so very, very right with what he indicates about the playing foul of the German government. I think and say the same. Do not trust Scholz, he plays foul, foul, foul. After all, the SPD always has been the most loyal advocate of Moscow's interests in Europe.


Klaus Wittmann was a brigadier general in the Bundeswehr. He explains Russia's large territorial gains with Ukraine's low resistance. In negotiations, they would lose the territories - a ceasefire would be the wrong way to go, in his view. The Russian advance in the Donbass continues. Last week, Russia's army made major territorial gains, according to its own figures. In the view of former Bundeswehr general Klaus Wittmann, the Ukrainian resistance force does not go far enough. In an interview with the WELT, he explains how Ukraine can regain its initiative and analyzes what role the German government plays in this.

WELT: Mr. Wittmann, if even the Ukrainian president says: Things are not looking good in the east, how do you actually have to imagine this in practical terms for the Ukrainian troops?

Klaus Wittmann: The pressure from the Russian forces is getting stronger. They are pulling together everything they have to gain space in the Donbass. And they already have 90 percent of Luhansk oblast in their possession. When President Selenskyj says the pressure is increasing, the situation is very serious. The Russians are trying to encircle certain towns, such as Zyverodonetsk. I don't estimate the morale and the will to fight of the Russian soldiers any better than that in the last whole last months. But one has to state realistically: Russian firepower is far superior.

WELT: What we are currently hearing sounds very threatening, at least for the eastern territories.

Klaus Wittmann: Yes, it is. In the last seven days, the Russians have gained more space than in the whole of May so far. I can only repeat: The strengthening of the Ukrainian resistance force is not yet far enough. And you can take a look at your own nose, many announcements that we have made have not been carried out for a long time.

WELT: As far as arms deliveries are concerned, the reports are often contradictory. First they say: We can deliver. But then the German government says: What we could deliver is currently sitting in the yard and first has to be repaired. What then?

Klaus Wittmann I can tell you two things about that: First, if the relevant decisions had been made in March, then the Leopard, Marder, self-propelled howitzers 2000, Gepard would all have been repaired, supplied with ammunition, the crews would have been trained and these very effective weapon systems would be in service in Ukraine. And secondly, if you really want something, you can make it happen. And if you don't want something, you're forever finding excuses, reservations, bureaucratic obstacles and the like.

WELT: Let's take another look at the situation in eastern Ukraine: What is the overall direction of the situation right now?

Klaus Wittmann: I hope, I hope that Ukraine will stand firm, that it will continue to be supplied with weapons systems and that it will get back on the initiative. SPD parliamentary group chairman Rolf Mützenich said in an interview on the war against Ukraine: "I hope that a ceasefire can be reached soon. Then we can finally focus on other issues." First of all, I find that incredibly lacking in empathy, and secondly, it feeds the suspicion, which others have already expressed, that the German political leadership is playing for time, hoping for a cease-fire, so that there will then be no need at all to keep the promises regarding heavy weapons. And there you fail to recognize what is happening to the people in the areas that Russia has occupied. And you fail to realize that at the moment Russia has doubled the occupied Ukrainian territory compared to February of this year and will certainly not hand over this conquered territory in negotiations. So to try to persuade the Ukrainians now: You have to enter into a cease-fire now as the very highest priority, I think that's wrong.

Note: For better readability, the spoken word has been slightly changed and shortened.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


What sickens me is that the SPD once again repeats the patterns of a crime Germans have committed against the Ukraine already in the past.

Thank God I am no nationalistically - and no more patriotically - feeling man, else I would need to sink into the ground in shame over this country.

[Jimbuna]

Russia says it will allow ships carrying food out of blockaded ports if sanctions are lifted.

Ukraine is a major grain producer and the EU accuses Russia of weaponising food.

The UK has warned prices will only increase if the stand-off isn't resolved.

On the ground Russian troops are currently trying to encircle the twin cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Ukraine says the Russian invasion is in the 'most active' phase as Russia tried to capture the eastern Donbas region.

Sweden, Finland and Turkey are to hold talks to try to overcome Turkey's objections to the pair joining Nato.

[Jimbuna]

Talk of prisoner swap 'premature' - Russia

It would be "premature" to consider a prisoner swap with Kyiv before Ukrainian soldiers who have surrendered stand trial, Russia's deputy foreign minister says.

In comments reported by Russian news agency Interfax, Andrei Rudenko, said Moscow would consider a prisoner swap with Kyiv after the surrendered Ukrainian fighters were "appropriately convicted, sentenced".

"Before that, all talk of an exchange is premature," he said.

It comes after Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said late on Monday that Kyiv was ready for an exchange of prisoners and urged international allies to pressure Moscow.

The fate remains unclear of hundreds of Ukrainian fighters from the besieged steelworks in the southern city of Mariupol who were taken to Russian-controlled areas last week.

[Jimbuna]

[Ostfriese]

Originally Posted by Skybird

German industry is now planned to deliver 15 Gepards "in July", with 59,000 rounds of remaining ammunition they found somewhere.
The two cannons at full burst rate together consume 1100 rounds per minute, more than a single Gepard has loaded.

A good many years (~30) have passed since I was a gunner in a Gepard tank, yet I still remember that it would be a stupid idea to fire continuously for a full minute
Usually bursts of 25 - 30 rounds are fired, and even back in the day firing more than two bursts per engagement was considered to be exceptionally rare.