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Old 05-19-22, 09:39 AM   #4096
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BREAKING - Putin won't release vital food stocks to world until sanctions are looked at.
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Old 05-19-22, 11:28 AM   #4097
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Some military experts consider it possible in their expectations that Putin aleready may have lost half of his troops (counting oth kills and wounded). FOCUS:

A "blitzkrieg" is no longer an issue for the Putin army. In the meantime, it has become clear that the supposedly gigantic Russian army is a bogus giant. A military expert from the U.S. has now calculated Russia's possible losses - and comes to a shocking conclusion that European experts also consider plausible.

At the beginning of the war on February 24, experts expected a "blitzkrieg. Given the Russian army's numerical superiority, it seemed only a matter of days before Putin's troops overran Ukraine entirely and took Kiev.

On paper, the Russian dictator had at his disposal a gigantic army of over 900,000 men - four and a half times the number of Ukraine. Compared to Ukraine, the Russians had three times as many battle tanks and guns in their arsenal and tens of thousands more armored vehicles. In addition, they had the dreaded hypersonic missiles and an air force that was ten times superior.

Foreign policy expert Thomas Jäger of the University of Cologne to FOCUS Online: "The Russian figures on troop strength and combat power are deceptive, as with any army." Of the allegedly roughly 1 million Russian soldiers, at most 200,000 are earmarked for combat duty, Jäger said. The rest, he said, are employed in administration, service or logistics, or are conscripted.

The situation is similar with regard to materiel: Just as with the Bundeswehr, only a fraction of the Russian tanks, jets and ships are operational. Added to this is the rampant corruption in Russia, which is also detrimental to the material's suitability. It is highly likely that the figures in Russian statistics are exaggerated, and that many weapons systems are outdated, unsuitable or exist only on paper.

For example, the number of troops: not all of the 200,000 combat-capable soldiers can be deployed to the Russian-Ukrainian front. Many have to remain in other military bases on Russia's seemingly endless borders. U.S. military expert Michael Kofman calculates that Putin has thrown a maximum of about 125,000 soldiers into the Ukraine war so far. Kofman is an analyst at the Center for a new American Security, a pro-government think tank in Washington.

Kofman estimates the original troop strength of the Russian attackers at the beginning of the war at a maximum of 90,000, supplemented by auxiliary troops with a maximum of 25,000 soldiers - making a total of 115,000. In addition, he says, up to 12,000 soldiers were added as reinforcements as the war progressed. The figure of 190,000 men reported by the Russians or other estimates of 150,000 is exaggerated in Kofman's opinion in view of the somewhat lower battalion strength of the Russians.

He thus assumes that Vladimir Putin has thus far sent a maximum of about 127,000 soldiers to war. And of those, he says, about 10 percent are dead. Because from the different reports from Russia, the Ukraine or from foreign observers an average number of 12,000 killed Russian soldiers emerges.

Based on statistics from past wars and current data, analyst Kofman also estimates the ratio of Russian soldiers killed to wounded at 1 to 3.5. Too many wounded soldiers - even those still conditionally able to fight - can become a problem for the army, Kofman says: "Some wounded can still fight, but units can become unable to fight because of the number of killed, wounded and other types of casualties."

Thus, in addition to 12,000 dead, there are also 42,000 wounded Russian soldiers. The net result is that 54,000 men out of 127,000 are no longer or only partially fit for combat - or about 43 percent. Assuming a lower number of Russian troops, a good 50 percent of the 110,000 soldiers Putin has sent to the front would be dead or wounded by now.

Michel Wyss, an expert on warfare at the ETH Zurich Military Academy, points out, "Exact figures on Russian troop strength, dead and wounded simply don't exist, and the wide range of estimates and speculation reflects that." Wyss, however, considers the figures from Kofman, a renowned expert on the subject of the Russian military, to be plausible.

Former Bundeswehr Inspector General Harald Kujat agrees: "By and large, the figure of 12,000 dead Russian soldiers could be correct. I think ten percent is realistic," Kujat told FOCUS Online. "The ratio of 1 to 3.5 between dead and wounded seems a bit high to me. However, since the Russian army ventured into a high-loss house-to-house combat at the beginning of the war, that could also be correct in the end."

Wyss: "According to publicly available information, the Russian military leadership is trying to compensate for losses in its formations by offering short-term and, by Russian standards, very well-paid contracts for professional soldiers." Since conscripted soldiers are not allowed to be sent on combat missions, the Russian military leadership is using a ploy: "In addition, attempts are being made to get reservists and conscripts to sign corresponding contracts to serve as professional soldiers in Ukraine," Wyss explains: "These measures are aimed at avoiding partial or even general mobilization for as long as possible."

Despite the deployment of younger soldiers, Harald Kujat believes a long war is likely: "I don't think Russia is already running out of soldiers. In war, you always have a manpower problem and you always lose materiel - that's the cruel normality of war. Decimated battalions are then pulled out, regenerated and refreshed with young soldiers. In the long run, this can be problematic for Russia, but right now I don't see it happening."

The former inspector general adds, "It is clear that we overestimated the Russian forces at the beginning of the war. Now, however, we should not make the mistake of underestimating them."



Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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Old 05-19-22, 01:39 PM   #4098
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Old 05-19-22, 01:41 PM   #4099
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Ukrainian widow confronts Russian soldier accused of killing her husband https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61511640
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Old 05-19-22, 04:06 PM   #4100
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Herfried Münkler is professor emeritus of the theory of politics at Berlin's Humboldt University. His historically wide-ranging work includes: Machiavelli - The Grounding of Modern Political Thought from the Crisis of the Republic of Florence (2004) and: Empires - The Logic of World Domination - from Ancient Rome to the United States (2005).

Neue Zürcher Zeitung has this interview with him. I do not agree with everything he says, like I did not always agree with everything he wrote in his books of which I know three, and I certainly do not agree with quite some of his statements of the past about the positivity of Merkel's EU policy, still his arguments are well-founded enouhgh to depict a maybe realistic way things may go by. He only maybe, as often before, underestimates the dark side of Russia's true nature. So: take his comments with a grain of salt. They must be considered, but they must not all necessarily be true.



Mr. Münkler, we spoke a few weeks before the Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24. The conclusion of the conversation was that, from a European perspective, a neutral Ukraine, provided with binding security guarantees, would be the best solution to the conflict. Does that still hold true after almost three months of war?


Yes, because it would have prevented immense destruction and tens of thousands of deaths. Perhaps the territorial integrity of Ukraine, as it existed at the beginning of the war, could also have been ensured. And, by the way, also the European level of prosperity. Because it will suffer from higher defense spending, energy supply conversion and inflation. The European model, according to which mutual economic dependence and interdependence create trust and stability, is also gone. Finally, the war has global implications. Many countries are now saying to themselves: We cannot rely on international treaties; only the possession of nuclear weapons really secures us. This conclusion is a disaster.

In the same interview, you concluded that Ukraine has only a limited alliance capability because it lies at the crossroads of two zones of influence: that of Russia and that of the EU. As a non-aligned buffer state, however, it stabilizes the European peace order. The objection that can be raised against this perspective is that it underestimates Ukraine's political subjectivity, which has just been demonstrated in the country's successful resistance.

Whatever the outcome, Ukraine will be left out in the cold. While the country can sovereignly express its desire to join NATO and the EU, this does not imply their obligation to accept it. The process of joining the EU will be a very long one, should the Copenhagen criteria continue to apply. Moreover, further eastward enlargement would call into question the EU's ability to act. The idea of merely associating the country is an attempt to take this into account. This shows that we are in a zone of decreasing Western influence or in a zone of overlap with Russian influence. We could have come to an agreement on this in the so-called Normandy format, where, in addition to Germany, France and Russia, Ukraine also sat at the table . . .

. . . to agree on the mentioned neutrality with security guarantee?

Exactly. Why didn't Putin get involved? He probably saw a power-opportunistic opportunity, after Belarus and Kazakhstan had become dependent on him, to bring Ukraine completely within his sphere of influence. Moreover, he was afraid of a democratic Ukraine on his doorstep and probably also thinks that only a Russia with an incorporated Ukraine has imperial character. And he is obviously concerned with the renewal of the empire.

After initial hesitation, the West is stepping up its involvement and is betting on escalation. The American defense secretary said in Ramstein at the end of April that Russia must be weakened to the point where it no longer poses a threat to its neighbors. In addition, the Americans are setting up a lend-lease program that will get heavy weapons to the front lines quickly and cheaply.

Well, the ideas about a peace agreement are far apart in the West. The absolute minimum condition is certainly the continued existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state, but possibly reduced to the area west of the Dnipro. Germany and France consider a Ukraine within the borders of February 23 (i.e., without Crimea and separatist areas) a victory. The British want to restore the Ukraine of 2013, i.e., with Crimea and Donbass. Finally, the Americans have their own view. They say: Putin has gotten in our way again, when we now wanted to take care of Xi Jinping and the challenge from China and not Europe. That should never happen again.

So we are organizing a war of attrition against the Russians that will deplete their military potential. Because in wars of attrition, the depth of logistics and the ability to mobilize fighters are crucial. The Europeans are now signaling to the Russians that with a negotiated peace they can avoid being bled dry by the Americans with the help of the Ukrainians. So the West is playing with different options.

What role do the Ukrainians play? They are the ones who are fighting.

All right, at first glance it is a very important role: the brave army and the will of the population to resist. But if you look more closely, these are dependent variables of the influx of weapons and money from the West. There sit the Western strategists on one side and the Kremlin strategists on the other, and Ukraine is the theater of contention. This underlines once again our initial consideration that in this zone of overlapping spheres of interest, the clash of arms could have been avoided in favor of negotiations.

But Ukraine does not have to be instrumentalized for a war of attrition. It could say: "We are satisfied with the withdrawal of the Russians from the territories conquered since February 24. Then we will stop fighting.

True, but such a withdrawal of the Russians must first be forced militarily. This presupposes very rich European arms supplies and a reduction of Ukrainian dependence on the U.S. and its weapons.

What do victory and defeat mean in this war?

Victory and defeat are difficult terms. There are people, Habermas for example, who say: You cannot win against a nuclear power. That is an empirically false statement. Vietnam was victorious against the USA. Afghanistan first against the Soviet Union, then against the West. The question is what are the purpose and objective of a war. Ukraine can also win. Not in the sense of debellatio, defeating the enemy and invading Moscow. But by forcing the Russians to resign themselves to their far-reaching war aims. That is then a victory. I believe that this war will end when its continuation, with the loss of life and infrastructure, makes the Ukrainians more and more losers. The same goes for the Russians. Their failure to overrun such an inferior opponent is ruining the reputation of their army.

Which end do you think is likely?

I tend to think that the actors in Kiev and Moscow are rational thinkers. But one cannot be sure. The very large numbers of casualties could make it more difficult for Russia to exit the war by forcing Moscow to achieve any war aims and make even more sacrifices to do so. On the Ukrainian side, the hatred after the destruction of the country may be so great that they do not want to let the Russians out of the "headlock" and continue fighting. This would be understandable from a collective psychological point of view, but strategically and geopolitically it would be a disaster.

It is also possible that the fighting will end due to exhaustion. That would then lead to a cease-fire line somewhere in the east of the country, where the two armies would continue to face each other for a long time.


Yes, and as revisionist powers because one side or even both sides do not accept the status quo. This constellation made another war likely. Peace orders that are to endure must ensure that there are no revisionist powers. This can be learned from the failure of the Paris Peace Order of 1919 and the Geneva League of Nations.

Are we now witnessing a renaissance of the West and transatlantic unity?

The problems between Europe and the United States have not gone away, but they are not visible at present. The Americans continue to harbor the expectation that the Europeans must be able to solve such problems themselves, even militarily. In fact, there is no longer any alternative to this, and this defuses the differences with the USA. Because what could be called the Steinmeier model is off the table: establishing stability and trust through mutual economic dependence. The trust is gone, and it's gone completely. Of course, we will have to negotiate with Putin again. But we will not be able to take his word for it; instead, we will be permanently armored against him.

How is the EU faring in the conflict?

For the EU, this is something of a magic moment. For it accelerates a development in which the Union is moving away from its self-image as a bureaucratic regulator and is instead trying to become a foreign and security policy actor. This is a change in the EU's character that seemed unthinkable a few months ago. Sure, the breaking points remain: between North and South on financial issues, between East and West on the rule of law. But they are no longer so relevant because of the common threat from Russia.

At least there is a danger that Hungary under Viktor Orban will break through the united front as a ricochet - currently with its refusal to participate in the oil boycott.

I don't think so; EU money is more important to Orban than Russian oil. He is building his position to get something out of it elsewhere, such as the rule of law dispute. The bigger strategic problem is Serbia. Its friendship with Russia is deeper than Hungary's. And it is a revisionist power in the Balkans, both with regard to Kosovo and with regard to the Serb-dominated part of Bosnia. It will not be easy for the EU. If it says, no, we don't want another problematic member, then the Serbs could go all in on the Russian card. One day, the Russians will be there with troops to systematically destabilize the region. The goal would be to set the Balkans on fire, which is no great feat.

I am not sure about that. After all, Serbia is surrounded by NATO countries, and the appetite for war is not great in the outdated Balkans after the trauma of the wars of the 1990s.

It does not have to be a war with weapons; hybrid warfare, misinformation and the like can also destabilize. The question is: Will the EU manage to create a stable constellation there that cannot be destabilized from the outside? Or will the region remain "porous" and thus open to influence not only from the Russians but also from the Chinese?

Macron is responding constructively to this by proposing a link to the EU without full membership for difficult countries such as Ukraine or the candidates in the Balkans.

Yes, I'm particularly pleased about that because I've long thought of the EU as a circle of circles and an ellipse of ellipses: the Schengen area, the euro area, and so on. Now we can build an additional circle to include states on the periphery that are not, or not yet, suitable for full membership. This is actually very obvious to me, who has been studying the concept of empires for a long time. There is now an opportunity for the EU to become a strategic actor. An organization, in other words, that is not merely a mediator between everyone, like the UN, but that, out of necessity, pools the capabilities of the European countries and strengthens their clout.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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Old 05-19-22, 04:53 PM   #4101
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Quote:
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace MP gave a speech at the National Army Museum, London, on Russia’s illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speech...ion-of-ukraine

An interesting speech I must say

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Old 05-19-22, 10:32 PM   #4102
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The Swiss are stirring.
https://intellinews.com/switzerland-...e-test-244573/
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Old 05-20-22, 03:56 AM   #4103
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Buddahaid View Post
Bang.
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Old 05-20-22, 03:57 AM   #4104
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Russian parliament to consider allowing over-40s to sign up for military.
Getting desparate?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ry-2022-05-20/
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Old 05-20-22, 06:58 AM   #4105
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Soon they start shanghaiying the drunks in the bars!
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Old 05-20-22, 08:06 AM   #4106
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Note the time slider in the window top left.


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Old 05-20-22, 09:07 AM   #4107
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Russia wants to sell power to Ukraine that was produced in occupied nuclear reactor.
This war has so many absurd political and economic constellations.
Ukraine calls Russia's plans "wishful thinking".

At the same time many Euzropoean energy copnaies pay Russian Gazprom in Rubles, despite EU sanction regime in place, and Greece and Malta refuse completely to not use their tnakers to tranbsport Russian oil , which is called for by EU sancitons.

Now we will see what the EU "sanctions" regime is worth while some player seem to test them. In pricniple the Eu now mist set sanctions against the offenders. For which the governments of the offendesr's countries would need to agree, which they won't.

A former high ranking employee from Gazprom revealed that over past years at Gazprom they were openly talking about and planning for the "Schroederizing" of European energy supplies - and calling it righ this, "Schroederizing".
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Old 05-20-22, 09:38 AM   #4108
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German industry is now planned to deliver 15 Gepards "in July", with 59,000 rounds of remaining ammunition they found somewhere.
The two cannons at full burst rate together consume 1100 rounds per minute, more than a single Gepard has loaded.

In the end, a total of 50 is planned to be delivered.

Ukrainian crews should already have gotten training in Juli.
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Old 05-20-22, 09:49 AM   #4109
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German industry is now planned to deliver 15 Gepards "in July", with 59,000 rounds of remaining ammunition they found somewhere.
The two cannons at full burst rate together consume 1100 rounds per minute, more than a single Gepard has loaded.



In the end, a total of 50 is planned to be delivered.



Ukrainian crews should already have gotten training in Juli.
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Old 05-20-22, 10:03 AM   #4110
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UN demands an ease or lift of the sanction against Russia

Quote:
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres is pursuing a high-stakes deal with Russia, Turkey and other nations to open up Ukrainian food exports to world markets and stave off a potential global food shortage, according to diplomats familiar with the effort.

Russia has sealed off Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to weaken the country and conquer its coast. Mr. Guterres has asked Moscow to permit some Ukrainian grain shipments in exchange for moves to ease Russian and Belarusian exports of potash fertilizer.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-n-see...os1&amp;page=1

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