Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Lysychansk Sievierodonetsk front have already drawn Russia to use its reserves this battle result in street house to house battles where loses will/are massive on other parts on the front in Ukraine the Ukraine army advances with success Russia hardy gains ground on the rest of the fronts will not be long till it will stop both sides are exhausted and low on material maybe new western supplies can turn the tide for Ukraine so that they can recover.

Do you have a source to this ?

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Do you have a source to this ?

Markus

I get some from people in Ukraine and from global news reports. The encirclement of Lysychansk Sievierodonetsk will happen, only will it take weeks or days is hard to say. Ukrainian defenders stopped an offensive in the direction of the southern outskirts of Lysychans'k, inflicted losses on the enemy and forced them to retreat. Russian forces want it done by Sunday(capture of Sievierodonetsk), but... today they are out of luck.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

I get some from people in Ukraine and from global news reports. The encirclement of Lysychansk Sievierodonetsk will happen, only will it take weeks or days is hard to say. Ukrainian defenders stopped an offensive in the direction of the southern outskirts of Lysychans'k, inflicted losses on the enemy and forced them to retreat. Russian forces want it done by Sunday(capture of Sievierodonetsk), but... today they are out of luck.

Thank you.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Thank you.

Markus

2,450 km is the length of the frontline in Ukraine. In terms of a distance, it would be the equivalent of a front stretching from the East of Poland all the way to the North of Spain, all across Europe and Russia only advances a couple km's on a very good day tells a lot.

[Dargo]

The White House is set to announce it will send an additional four HIMARS medium-range rocket launchers to Ukraine, according to a U.S. official. Official confirms the weapons are part of a new $450M package of aid.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Germany has taken a step closer to gas rationing after a drop in supplies from Russia.

The country has triggered the "alarm" stage of an emergency gas plan to deal with shortages, Germany's economy ministry said.

Actually it already is the second of a three stages-alarm plan. If the third stage gets called, prices for houseohglds and consumers could in short time explosed by severla hundred percent, up to 600% within short time. In July, Norstream-1 will be shut down completely for normal reuglar maintence, for two weeks. This is common practice and certain intervals, and normal. But nobody can say that after the 2 weeks inspection and maintenance Russia will care to refill the pipeline again.

If I were the Russians, I wouldn't. Why would I, if I were them?

And the Germans still have not perceived the full scale of follow-on dramas. Costs for materials. Chinese monopoles. Broken global logistic chains. Too few workers. Too few bureaucratic planners. Too few of evertyhign and everyone, everywhere. Their plans to speed up energy revolution - it cannot work because we do not have enough of what it takes to go at that pace. It simply is not possible.

And all this in galloping inflation that is at the risk of tunrign into a hyperinflation by the end of this year or firts half next year.

They still do not overlook the full scope of problems completely, I think. Or they are so scared of what they see that they lie over it due to being in shock, beign paralysed.

I have bought and stored full 200l of petroleum now for my old parents. Their big appartment complex is on ga sheating. With 200l, they can heat 950-1000 hours. When hetaign for ten hours per day, they can last for around 3 months , say Decembre, January, February.

Accoding ovens are almost impossible to buy in germany currently. Petroleum also has become a scare ressource now.

My own house is still on oil. How good that feels. It may become expensive, but oil is easier available on global markets.

[les green01]

Thanks for the info guys being on the phone I been kinda iffy on the getting on the info skybird I'm all electric at my house so I can feel the pain worse in the winter time I went and found other options a wood stove and old white gas tent heater I'm sure your right going have to fight few months of this war we sent more money than we spent last few years in Afghanistan

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:


The U.S. is Europe's guardian angel - Europeans should curb their disdain. But with their hesitation, Berlin and Paris are strengthening isolationist forces in Washington that would rather leave the old continent to its uncertain fate.

"The Americans are the best Europeans," Germany's first chancellor Konrad Adenauer is reported to have said to U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower. This is now proving true again in Ukraine. Without help from Washington, the Russian flag would probably have been flying for a long time in Lviv in western Ukraine and in the southern port city of Odessa. Millions more refugees would have had to flee to neighboring European countries from the looting, raping, and torturing Russian soldiers.

The appetite of the Russian bear would hardly be satisfied. After the big Ukraine he would probably like to eat the small Moldova, the Baltic states, Georgia or the north of Kazakhstan for dessert. After a short digestive break, even Poland or Finland would no longer be safe. For aggression is the lifeblood of the Putin regime. It needs war against the West in order to survive. Any cease-fire serves only to plan the next conquest and, in the meantime, to further destabilize Western democracies - for example, by supporting illiberal parties and targeted disinformation.

The United States and its President Joe Biden recognized the full dimension of this conflict early on and acted accordingly. U.S. intelligence agencies warned of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine as early as November, and later provided Kiev with key details about Moscow's attack plans. While Germany and France - the European continental powers - dithered, the United States quickly let the Ukrainians have the necessary anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles to stop the Russian forces. This short-term aid, in turn, was only effective because the Americans had trained some 23,000 Ukrainian soldiers over the years following Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and prepared them for a larger war.

French and German policies toward Russia have failed grandly with Putin's brutal war of annihilation against Ukraine. But neither Paris nor Berlin seems to want to fully admit this, even if the recent visit of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Kiev speaks for a slow rethinking.

Instead of pulling together with Washington and the Eastern European states with all their might from the outset, they are under the illusion that they can balance between the United States and Russia as mediating powers. France and Germany still seem to stubbornly believe that they can freeze the conflict as they did in 2014 and then negotiate a compromise with Moscow on the status of Ukraine. It has long been clear that a middle course is out of the question for Putin. He does not want a neutral Ukraine, he does not want Ukraine at all. The spectre of NATO's eastward expansion serves the Kremlin chief only as a cover for his unrestrained imperialism.

From the U.S. perspective, the hard-to-understand ambiguity of the two leading democratic powers in Europe is frightening and disappointing. France and Germany support Ukraine. Unlike Berlin, Paris has after all already delivered some heavy weapons to Kiev in May - six mobile Caesar howitzers. This week, the German government finally handed over seven self-propelled howitzers 2000 to Ukraine, with an air defense system and three multiple rocket launchers to follow. But after four months of war, it is clear that Paris and Berlin could and should have done much more. After all, European security is primarily in their interest and not in that of the USA.

According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Washington gave Ukraine $24 billion in military aid in the first three months of the war. Only 1.4 billion euros came from Germany, while Poland, for example, with an economy one-sixth the size, provided Ukraine with 1.5 billion euros in military support. France keeps its exact deliveries secret because it does not want to provoke Russia with them. But French arms aid is also "modest," writes "Le Monde."



The misguided Russia policy in Berlin and Paris seems to be based not only on a misjudgment of the Putin regime, but also on a disdain for the United States and an anti-Americanism that paints a distorted picture of an ignorant, egoistic, and imperialistic superpower. Emblematic of this is the reaction of the German delegation in 2018 to a speech by Donald Trump before the UN General Assembly: "Germany will become totally dependent on Russian energy if it does not change its course immediately," the American president said at the time. But Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and his staff reacted only with shaking heads and sneering smiles. Instead of taking the years of warnings from Washington seriously, the narrative prevailed in Germany that the U.S. was only against the Baltic Sea pipeline because it wanted to sell its own natural gas.

The depth of the mental rift between France and America is illustrated by a speech Macron gave at an ambassadors' conference in August 2019, in which he accuses the U.S. of placing the value of freedom above all else and, in contrast to French humanism, neglecting climate change or the issue of social equality, for example. Macron declares humanism to be the basis of an independent "European civilization." In order to realize this project, however, an understanding with Russia is needed: "We won't be safe if we don't relax and clarify our relations with Russia." France, he said, must therefore act as a "balancing power." Otherwise, he said, Europe risks becoming an arena for a strategic battle between the United States and Russia.

It is perplexing how difficult it is for the French president to clearly side with the U.S. in the confrontation with an inhuman, authoritarian state like Russia, and how he blames Washington between the lines for the conflict with Moscow. Without naming America, Macron opined in his 2019 speech, "Some will push us to impose more sanctions on Russia because it's in their interest. Even though they are our friends. But it's certainly not in our interest."

It is absurd to view the United States and Russia as quasi-equal superpowers to mediate between. Unlike Moscow, Washington has never used force to exert its influence in Eastern Europe. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it was these countries themselves that placed themselves under the protection of the American hegemon because they recognized in him a guarantor of security, freedom and prosperity. The Americans have accepted this responsibility, but they are having a hard time with it. They would be downright relieved if Europe could finally defend its values itself.

Washington's foreign policy vacillates between isolationism and interventionism. This is also evident in the American president's actions in Ukraine. Biden has done a lot for Kiev, but even he could have done more to deter Russia from invading. For example, by delivering heavier weapons ahead of time or even stationing its own soldiers. Instead, Biden tried to involve all allies and make them share the responsibility. In this way, he also wants to prove to his skeptical home audience the benefits of multilateral alliances for the United States.

France and Germany should do everything in their power to support Biden in this demonstration. For it is by no means certain that the Americans will continue to be the better Europeans in the future. Donald Trump has questioned the usefulness of NATO and placed no value on defending freedom and democracy in the world. Trump was voted out of office, but the isolationist, nationalist and illiberal wing has become the dominant force in the Republican Party.

Conservatives are expected to win the midterm congressional elections in November. And even Trump's return to the White House cannot be ruled out. Biden therefore cannot afford a failure in Ukraine. If the major European powers let the American president down, they risk security and freedom on their own continent.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[mapuc]

Danish Ekstra Bladet wrote:

Germany: Could end in collapse
Russian President Putin is likely to continue cutting gas supplies to Europe, Germany's government says. That could have fatal consequences

A collapse of energy markets on the same scale as financial markets during the 2008 financial crisis.

That is the scenario if Russia continues to reduce the supply of natural gas to Europe, Germany's economy minister Robert Habeck estimated at a press conference on Thursday, writes Finans.

- We must assume that Putin is prepared to reduce gas supplies further. Already we see a growing deficit of natural gas in the stocks. If this deficit becomes so large that the market can no longer cope with demand pressures, it could end in a collapse that would have the same effect on the energy market as Lehman Brothers' had on the financial world, the minister said.

The bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers set off the huge snowball effect that rolled across financial markets in 2008 and sent the world economy into a very serious crisis.

Shutting down
Already there are worrying trends in Europe and the US, with extremely high inflation and sharp interest rate rises. Russia has recently been cutting off gas supplies to countries where companies have refused Putin's demand to pay for gas with the Russian currency, the rouble.

This recently led to Danish company Ørsted being told it would no longer receive gas from Russia's Gazprom. Several other countries, including the Netherlands and Poland, have also had their gas cut off.

Here, there was initially a hope that Russia might simply sell the gas to other companies that have agreed to pay for it in roubles. However, this is not the case and it has cut about a third of the gas supply from Russia to Europe. But even though companies in Germany and Italy have agreed to pay for the gas in roubles, Russia has cut gas supplies to Germany by a further third in recent days.

According to the Russians, the reduction is due to problems getting spare parts from Germany's Siemens for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline. However, this explanation has been rejected by the German government, while German Siemens has actually confirmed that there are indeed challenges in getting turbines from Canada for Nord Stream 1. However, experts tell Politiken that the problems in getting the turbines should not cause such a big reduction in gas supply as is the case.

Level 2
Germany on Thursday raised its gas alert level to level 2 out of a possible three, while the Danish Energy Agency has warned of level 1. The fact that Russia has now cut gas supplies further means Europeans have less chance of replenishing gas stocks, which are currently not very healthy.

- We are better stocked this year than we were last year. But from a historical perspective, gas stocks are still on the low side. So we are not in a robust situation as far as that is concerned, and therefore the winter will be extremely crucial. There is a big difference in natural gas consumption if you have a cold or mild winter, says Jens Nærvig Pedersen, chief analyst focusing on commodities at Danske Bank, to Ekstra Bladet.

Kristian Rune Poulsen, energy analyst at Green Power Denmark, recently estimated that a cold winter will be very severe for Europe.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Markus

[Skybird]

Who knows, maybe it would be for the good of Germany in the longer run if things get worse. Maybe it would teach Germans a sense of realism again, and they rediscover the deeper wisdom in "first things first". Too much "mindf###ing" (Fritz Perls) over here, and since too long. All that hyper-intellectual weeds must finally be weeded out again. Suffering and pain can be formidable teachers. A stalling paymaster also means the EU must dramatically rethink its so far mostly stupid priorities.

It seems real pain and agony are the only things left that may hold at least the chance to make Brussels and Berlin actually think again.


--------------


Ukrainian Energy Minister German Galuschenko has offered to supply nuclear power to Germany. Since March 16, Ukraine has synchronized its energy grid with the Association of European Transmission System Operators; "thus, Ukraine can become an outsourcer of electricity for Germany," Galuschenko wrote in a guest article for "Wirtschaftwoche." This would create "a kind of insurance cushion in times of weather-related declining generation from solar and wind power plants."

Germany and Ukraine could benefit from the different time and climate zones. The time difference between Kiev and Berlin is one hour, which means that the electricity consumption peaks of the two countries also differ by one hour, Galuschenko wrote further. This, he said, would allow Germany to "buy Ukrainian electricity more cheaply when demand for it declines or there is a significant surplus of green generation." Ukraine, in turn, could buy German wind power in times of surplus.

Moving away from Russian energy is "a gigantic challenge" for Germany and it is "becoming more and more urgent," the minister further wrote in Wirtschaftswoche. "But Ukraine can support Germany in this Herculean task." Nuclear energy, according to the minister, makes up more than 50 percent of Ukraine's central

----------------------------

The German government wants to provide Ukraine with additional self-propelled howitzers to defend against the Russian attack. To this end, talks are underway with the Netherlands as well as another European partner, as Deutsche Presse-Agentur learned Friday from defense ministry circles in Berlin.

Ukraine has so far received seven pieces of the howitzer 2000 tank from Germany and five of the weapon systems from the Netherlands. Kiev had stated that a total of 18 howitzers - six more models - could be used to equip a complete Ukrainian artillery battalion. In Berlin, there is a firm will to fulfill the request if partners also deliver, so that Germany would deliver three or only two more weapon systems, dpa was told.

[mapuc]

In our news we have this scrolling at the bottom of the screen going from right to left and there I could read.

Kremlin planning terrorist attack on Mozyr to draw Belarus into the war.
(This information came from UA intelligence)

This made me think-Well If there's one country who's expert on False flag operation then it is Russia.

Edit
Found the English article

Russia’s military intelligence agency (GRU) is planning to conduct a series of artillery and missile strikes on the Mozyr Oil Refinery, as well as civilian infrastructure and residential buildings. The attacks will be accompanied by explosions in residential buildings, hospitals and schools."

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/24/7354451/

End edit


Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

In our news we have this scrolling at the bottom of the screen going from right to left and there I could read.

Kremlin planning terrorist attack on Mozyr to draw Belarus into the war.
(This information came from UA intelligence)

This made me think-Well If there's one country who's expert on False flag operation then it is Russia.

Edit
Found the English article



https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/06/24/7354451/

End edit


Markus

Saw this "Kremlin planning a terrorist attack on ... to draw Belarus into the war." so many times will never happen there is no need for false flags Belarus is one of the axis that played their role in this invasion of Ukraine Belarus is Russian controlled by a Kremlin puppet. Why Belarus is not in Ukraine yet is that they cannot because their army is not capable for invasions.

[Skybird]

Putin does not care for troops being capable or not. He also does not care for his own troops, or that they are being lied to and lured into the slaughterhouse, or contracts given on a basis of lies. He wants Belarus to throw troops into the fire, Basta!, even if the Ukrainiasn would slaughter them, the Ukrainians still would need to dipatch troops for that - troops hat they cannot send elsehwhere. Also, Putin wants Lukashenko to finally pay his bloody debts to Putin.


Numbers, towarischtsch, numbers!

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Putin does not care for troops being capable or not. He also does not care for his own troops, or that they are being lied to and lured into the slaughterhouse, or contracts given on a basis of lies. He wants Belarus to throw troops into the fire, Basta!, even if the Ukrainiasn would slaughter them, the Ukrainians still would need to dipatch troops for that - troops hat they cannot send elsehwhere. Also, Putin wants Lukashenko to finally pay his bloody debts to Putin.


Numbers, towarischtsch, numbers!

As with any anticipation of “false flags” etc. I would want to see evidence that any actual planning or preparation for this took place before giving it credence. Even with the Russian numbers, they hardly advance Ukraine fight this like they fought their revolution, they are prepared to sacrifice their lives for freedom. Russian soldiers are only there for the money, most are from the poorest parts of the federation.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

As with any anticipation of “false flags” etc. I would want to see evidence that any actual planning or preparation for this took place before giving it credence. Even with the Russian numbers, they hardly advance Ukraine fight this like they fought their revolution, they are prepared to sacrifice their lives for freedom. Russian soldiers are only there for the money, most are from the poorest parts of the federation.

I would say you are both right.

Before and during the war there have been some rumours about false flag operations(seem to remember a few)How many of these has been real-I don't know.

Belarus does not need to have hundred of thousands of soldier-20-40000 is enough to draw Ukrainian soldiers from the 2450 km long front in south and southeast Ukraine -Soldiers who is needed there.

Markus