The Turkish-Kurdish Dilemma

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

Not too sure about the history of the Kurds, Turkey and Syria about how long they have been friends are enemies, but when the USA was in a war between North Vietnam and South Vietnam there had only been 100 years of peace in that area in it's entire history.

Let them duke it out without us

You know what? We agree on nthat, I completely agree. Alreadsy years ago I said: Russia wants sYria, leave Syria to the Russians, let them sort issues out. But the West could not just leave Assad to himself, it shall not be that the slaughterer claims the prioze, no, a moral lesson was about to be lectured, and then the IS, and so... I always was agauinst this Syrian engament, by US, by Europe. Go back in the forum, read it, I said we shall stay out and leave them to themselves, and that any assistance to Assad'S opponents only would make the war last longer. My problem with this story today only was about the timing of the pulling out. Not what has been done, but how it was done. I described it in a metaphor in my reply to Rockstar: when you have guests on your boat, do not just throw them into the ocean and watch them drowning when you have enough of them. Go back to the beach and unload them there, and then have them not as guests anymore. And dont take in new guests, of course.

The Germans - of all things the Germans! - now talk about an international UN-sanctioned protection force in that area. The area where there are Turkish and Russian patrols already claiming ground. I can only shake my head about such naivety. Not to mention that the German army should have other priorities, considering the pitiful state it is in. Overstretched in too many out of area missions aleady now, low in personnel , and so many itnernal issues and deficits. Rumour has it that the German Pentagon already has plans for 2400 troops. While the whole mission was claulated to need around 40 thousand. Bah!!! The Germans... Well, it has more to do with internal German politics and the race for the next chancellory, and after a clueless blonde girlie we now have an even more clueless brunette wannabe-girlie as defence ministress. Well. Weiberwirtschaft.

[Skybird]

Gunnar Heinsohn about why Turkey and Syria are fighting.

https://translate.google.de/translat...echtlingsfalle

Regardless of the up to 500,000 civil war deaths, between 2010 and 2020 Syria’s total population is growing from 21 to 25 to 26 million. Of these, 17 to 19 million live within national borders . That’s still six times more than in 1945. By 2040, it should be with 30 million internally even ten times as many . Syria’s government can not want the back soon 7 million exiles. Her youthful pressure would instantly transform the slaughtering slaughter back into full-scale warfare. Since Sunni Muslims were predominant, the Alawite, Christian and Kurdish minorities would also have to fear bloody revenge. Bashir Assad has expressed this concern unequivocally: „Although we have lost the best of our youth, we have become more homogeneous and healthier as a society.“ (" We lost the best of our youth.“) a healthier and more homogeneous society ; ")

Most important points - completely ignored in the usual debates about Syria.

Gunnar Heinsohn taught war-related demography at the NATO Defense College (NDC) in Rome from 2011 to 2019. In Stavanger in 2018 he gave the Perspectives on the 15th anniversary of the Joint Warfare Center (JWC) of NATO. Further info on the author: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunnar_Heinsohn


The "war index" mentioned in the essay, Heinsohn described in this essay from 2017 like this:

A nation’s war index indicates its capacity for violent struggle. For example, Afghanistan’s index jumping from 4.6 to 6.5 meant that every 1,000 males aged 55 to 59 were being replaced by 4,600 to 6,500 young men aged 15 to 19. These young men were ready and eager to compete for success in society and victory on the battlefield. The Soviets, with their falling birth rates, could not match Afghanistan’s endless supply of military replacements and its unwavering willingness to fight.
Neither war, nor civil war, in Afghanistan weakened its ability to endure losses on the front lines. Their demographic advantage is enormous, and in times of conflict has grown. Even after suffering appalling casualties against the Soviets, Afghanistan’s war index increased, enlarging its capacity to absorb even higher losses. A decade after the Russians retreated, Afghanistan’s pool of fighting-age males (15 to 29 years) grew from 1.65 to 2.73 million. The unbreakable fighting spirit of young men had defeated the hardware of modern war.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/w...-the-war-index


The war index for the US two years ago was just 0.96. That for Germany even weaker at 0.65. It means that 1000 males age 55-59 are followed by just 960 (650) young males age 15-19. In 2017, Syria'S war index was 4.02 (probably has changed dramaticlaly), and Turkey's 2.00

[Rockstar]

Rockstar: when you have guests on your boat, do not just throw them into the ocean and watch them drowning when you have enough of them. Go back to the beach and unload them there, and then have them not as guests anymore. And dont take in new guests, of course.

Skybird I do appreciate your point of view, even this. But nobody in the U.S. invited anyone for cruise on our boat. I think we invited ourselves to oust Assad under the pretext of defeating ISIS. We may not have acheived that goal of regime change but we certainly left Syria and Assad in an extremely unstable state.

Supposedly we coordinated with the YPG faction in order to defeat ISIS. Seems to me we both used each other in order to get what we both wanted in regards to ISIS only. Oh Im sure we may have even tried to persuade the YPG to come to our side and that of the Kurds of Northern Iraq. But that was probably asking to much of them. Especially since those socalled guests have historically aligned themselves with Assads Syrian Ba'athist regime.

Can you imagine what the comments would be like here if we stayed and fought side by side with the YPG (who actuallt support Assad) against Turkey and Russia?

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

[…] to oust Assad under the pretext of defeating ISIS. We may not have acheived that goal of regime change but we certainly left Syria and Assad in an extremely unstable state.

Can you imagine what the comments would be like here if we stayed and fought side by side with the YPG (who actuallt support Assad) against Turkey and Russia?

I do not think that any group supporting dictator Assad would ever have fought against the Russians. Maybe it would have been better to help overturn Assad, after all the initial uprising had that in mind, and it would have granted the US and the west a positive image and a deciding stance not only in the Middle East.
Which was ecactly what Obama had had in mind before, b.t.w. .
And i was at least worth a try, what happens now is ridiculous.

[Skybird]

The Russians would have thoguht twice and three times before going to war with yoiu. And Turkey - they are in very urgent need to get a serious bump as wake-up call from their Western "partners". Erdoghan bullied Trump out of the game, that simple it is. The american troops shoudl ahve stayed were they were- and yes, if the Turks would have struick them, they shoud have fired back at themn, and not just weanring shots, beleoive me. Force is the most common means of communicaiton in that bvregion, and that is especially true when you "talk" to baddies like Erdoghan. You know I see them not as allies. While you and me talk, they mull buying even more weaponry from Russia. Both you ASmericnas and the Europeans have dangeorus iullusions about the state of things regarding Turkey. I am saying this a decade. Turkey is not our friend anymore. This is not the Turkey that once signe dintio NATO, LONG time ago. Its a completely different, a totally different country. There are two countreies amognst the places wher eU have been that I learned to know better than the others I cme though, the one is Iranl the other is Turkey. Anmd that was in the 90s and Erdoghan still was rising and had not yet fully arrioved - and already then it was clear to me where turkey would head. The Eurpeans act as if Erdoghan'S Turkey and how it does and behaves, were a surprise. Not, it has not been a surprise at all. Not since 20 years. In principle: nothing in what Erdoghan has done in these 20 years, has surprised me. And the country went pretty much exactly that way that I had more or less vaguely imagined back then, when I was there. My strong hostility to Turkey comes not from nowhere.


You Westerners, both Americans and Europeans - you must stop to feed your illusions about Turkey. You are in absolutely urgent need to do so. Turkey is lost for you. Its gone. It was gone since Erdoghan was allowed back into politics because the Europeans told the Turkey of back then it should disrespect its own laws after Erdoghan left prison and should allow him to become politically active again. Back then it was beleived that Turkey would be Kemliat and secular enoigh to not be brought down by Erdoghans relgious conservatism. And today? Kemlaism gone, secular base order gone, racist nationalism blossoming, aggressive expansiknistic dreams and open talking about a retaking of previously Ottoman conquests that got lost in the past. America: several times being embarrassed by stubborn Turkish provokations. Europe: endlessly appeasing it and papmering it financially. What erdoghan doe sion the past years and the present, is not just provokation anymore - it is dangerous and a challenge to the West.

All you people thinking you can appease Turkey and keep it in line with the West - you all are wrong. The EU lost it. NATO lost it. And they are orienting towards Russia, very openly.

In principle, the whole Western ME policy paradigms are in ruins. One only still tries to ignore it, but its true.

Forget Turkey. Its gone. Gone, gone,gone. Learn it. Live with it. Adapt to the new fact which by now already is at least one decade old!

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I do not think that any group supporting dictator Assad would ever have fought against the Russians. Maybe it would have been better to help overturn Assad, after all the initial uprising had that in mind, and it would have granted the US and the west a positive image and a deciding stance not only in the Middle East.
Which was ecactly what Obama had had in mind before, b.t.w. .
And i was at least worth a try, what happens now is ridiculous.

Those poor betrayed Kurds in Syria everyone laments over are YPK and PPK minority shia factions. From information Im reading appear to support the Syrian Ba'athists. They will not overturn their master Assad. They are more afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Turkish military who wants to see all three disappear.

IMO Obama's idea of regime change was to use the western supported 'free syrian army. It basically consisted of a loose mish mash of armed islamic militant political factions. It was bound too fail. and it did.
From the time Obama said "Assad has got to go" he had many years to act with a focused western and well equiped military action but it was only threats and Putin saw it for what was and called his bluff. Afterwhich the free syrian army got their arses kicked by Syrian government and Russian forces. THAT IMO was betrayal as many a Free Syrian fighters were left holding the bag.

Though regime change didnt workout we destablized the state instead, whats the difference? We, the U.S., British and French forces left a train wreck for Syria and Russia. Of which neither has the economy to rebuild and takes little effort on our part to keep it that way.

please note I really dont want make this about Trump Obama. Just trying to make sense of it all.

[ikalugin]

Syrians would have to rebuild themselves.



Maybe we would find some arab or Chinese money to do it.

[Skybird]

Why not Germany? Is German money suddenly not good enough any more?

[ikalugin]

If Germans want it - why not.

[August]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

If Germans want it - why not.

"Just get the money up front" - xoxo NATO.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

If Germans want it - why not.

And are you really sure you do not mind? Germany dies for paying out others!

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Skybird

And are you really sure you do not mind? Germany dies for paying out others!

I mean it is no like this would compromise our position in Syria, it would just place economic pressure on Germany.

[Rockstar]

The United States of America, Britain, France and Russia. Four out of the five of worlds largest arms dealers directly involved in Syria. Business is booming! C'mon Germany join us there is money to be made. Arms dealers shall inherit the earth because everyone is too busy killing themselves.


(China #5)