AUKUS

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

So let's make it simple:
If nuclear deterrence does not work because Russia or China can have reasonable doubts if America and the UK would retaliate with a nuclear strike, what is this construction worth for anyway, for Europe?

I don't know to be honest. I hope it wouldn't come so far that Putin think he has a chance to invade and occupy East Europe incl. Germany, Sweden and Denmark. Because I fear that NATO's only response would be nukes.

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I don't know to be honest. I hope it wouldn't come so far that Putin think he has a chance to invade and occupy East Europe incl. Germany, Sweden and Denmark. Because I fear that NATO's only response would be nukes.
Markus

No, as long Putin believes there will be a united western nuclear response, an invasion will not happen.
The formerly united west is breaking up right now, with Trump and brexit ony being symptoms of the underlying rot.

Remember Putin's "multipolar world" speech? This is certainly what he hopes for. A multipolar world with single nations not belonging to a bloc or pact will make Russia stronger of course, after their own bloc/pact disintegrated in the 1990ies.
I think he is just waiting for NATO and a western pact breaking apart, and he did not even need to do something, the west does it all by itself. So I am not sure, but regarding what just now happens, the second Putin doubts there will be no unipolar retaliation by the west anymore, he will make his move.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

No, as long Putin believes there will be a united western nuclear response, an invasion will not happen.
The formerly united west is breaking up right now, with Trump and brexit ony being symptoms of the underlying rot.

Remember Putin's "multipolar world" speech? This is certainly what he hopes for. A multipolar world with single nations not belonging to a bloc or pact will make Russia stronger of course, after their own bloc/pact disintegrated in the 1990ies.
I am not sure but i think he is just waiting for NATO and a western pact breaking apart, and he did not even need to do something, the west does it all by itself.
I am not sure, but regarding what just now happens, the second Putin doubts there will be no unipolar retaliation by the west anymore, he will make his move.

I can come up with some countries Putin would invade, if NATO/EU collapse.
Ukraine, Moldova and most likely Gotland(Sweden)

France. I hope they'll find some other buyer to these 12 Sub.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Europe is no unified "state", it is 27 sovereign countries.
If some of those act in Africa, or the middle East, or near China the uproar is big, "how can/should/dare they?!"
On the other hand the same people demand that Europe grows together and takes its future into its own hands.
At the same time denying Europe an own army able to achieve interests.
But saying 24/7 that Europe should have one.
Complaining against everything with the wind changes is not productive.


etc etc etc

Ach Catfish... If only I could recognise myself in your claims on what I should have said, meant, implied. But I cannot, and so...

[Exocet25fr]

Mapuc wrote:

Without USA, NATO in Europe would not have much of a chance if Russia decide to invade Europe.

Are you a comedian?, don't forget, we have a Powerful Nuclear Weapons, and believe me, we don't hesitate one second to use them counter any agressor!

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Exocet25fr

Mapuc wrote:

Without USA, NATO in Europe would not have much of a chance if Russia decide to invade Europe.

Are you a comedian?, don't forget, we have a Powerful Nuclear Weapons, and believe me, we don't hesitate one second to use them counter any agressor!

As mentioned in one of my former comment. The only response NATO in Europe has is nukes.
NATO in Europe does not have much of a chance when it comes to conventional warfare

Markus

[Exocet25fr]

I'm sorry mapuc, I mistook about your message!

France. I hope they'll find some other buyer to these 12 Sub.

It seems India is interrested again with our subs!

The crisis is growing again tonight, and french people would be ok in the idea about an alliance with Russia and Chinese more trust than anglo-saxons, and why not Argentina, in this case USA shall be isolated and finished the america first, wait and see....!

And our new torpedoes and new Exocets version are on the top too!

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Exocet25fr

I'm sorry mapuc, I mistook about your message!

France. I hope they'll find some other buyer to these 12 Sub.

It seems India is interrested again with our subs!

The crisis is growing again tonight, and french people would be ok in the idea about an alliance with Russia and Chinese more trust than anglo-saxons, in this case USA shall be isolated and finished the america first, wait and see....!

That's OK, my English isn't exactly perfect.

Someone wrote that if Marie Le Pen won the next election in France, they will leave EU.
Don't know if this is true or not.
Leaving NATO ?
You as a citizens in France know more about what's going on and know if there are interest in leaving NATO.

Markus

[Exocet25fr]

Yes!, french people in majority suggests to leave nato, onu, oms, germany and ue , and destroy Calais walls!. We think about frexit and for others gain our TOTAL INDEPENDANCE to travel in this new wild world!

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Exocet25fr

Mapuc wrote:

Without USA, NATO in Europe would not have much of a chance if Russia decide to invade Europe.

Are you a comedian?, don't forget, we have a Powerful Nuclear Weapons, and believe me, we don't hesitate one second to use them counter any agressor!

France starting a nuclear exchangd that would annihilate itself - because Russians take the Baltic, Poland or Hungary?


I dont believe that one second. Not before Russian tanks cross the border of isle de France this would be considered.



Meanwhile NATO is unable to even counter a quick rush of Russia into the three baltic states or eastern poland. They admitted that already years ago.



A Russian attack with the goal of seizing anything west of the verman-Polish border i practically rule out anyway.

[Skybird]

This is from France24. Balanced.

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pac...marine-dispute

The US thinks about how to contain China. And Australia too is in the position of thinking about how one contains, as opposed to how one accommodates; that’s the fundamental difference with France.

[Skybird]

https://www.welt.de/debatte/kommenta...ls-Verrat.html
---------
The roles are finally clearly assigned again: The USA is the ruthless superpower that coldly asserts its interests in the world. Germany and Europe are the victims of American power politics - and are approaching autocratic great powers like China and Russia out of pure self-defense. The narrative was so nice and comfortable under Donald Trump. Now it's back under Joe Biden, the Germans and the Europeans see themselves as victims again. -

At first, Biden let the allies in Afghanistan run aground mercilessly. This was followed by the submarine deal with Australia, in which Europe was booted out in secret negotiations. But the allies' self-indulgence is ridiculous. Joe Biden just holds up a mirror to Germany and Europe: They would recognize their own hypocrisy if they could look through the streaks of their childish tears of anger. -

The submarine deal is the answer to Angela Merkel's betrayal. She had secretly and quietly negotiated an economic agreement with China with French President Emmanuel Macron. Joe Biden was elected, but not yet in office. The US government was not consulted - and had to watch impotently as Europe made it clear with the deal that it does not want to follow the US in their tough China policy. -

The message reached Biden: We want the military protection of the superpower USA, but at the same time we want to do good business with the enemies of the USA. In Afghanistan and in the submarine case, Biden made it clear to Europe that he would not accept this double-faced diplomacy. -

Unfortunately, it has to be doubted whether Europe understands that. Because foreign policy is reflected in the mood of the European population. Amazingly, Germans and Europeans still consider the conflict with China to be a purely American problem. Many citizens make no distinction between the totalitarian dictatorship of China and the USA - the country that liberated Europe. -

It is anti-American schizophrenia that Europe has practiced for decades. Joe Biden - he made this very clear between the lines in his speech to the United Nations - wants this hypocrisy to have its price in the future.

[Skybird]

And while I prepared the post above, I read that Chinese state shipping compoany Cosco has bought one third of the container terminal capacity in the harbour of hanmburg.

And Hamburg and Germany celebrate it.

If I were America, this would be my advise. Europoe and Germany in special are wildely determined to become Islamic - what one sees as Islam at least and what has little to do with real Islam - and a vasall of China and a dependent of Russia. Military pressure will not prevent this, but serve as an excuse to grow even more anti-American sentiments. So, pull out all military fromEurope, avoid the palce and leav eEurope to itself. Act on China and Russia without considering Europe'S desires.

Do your own thing, and do not care. To hell with the EU Kindergarden. Just the UK's territory can serve as a nice bridgehead for electronic surveillance of Europe.

Europe is lost ground.

Quesiton is why Europe has this anti-American sentiment, although it were the Americans saving it from the Third Reich. There is a lesson to be learned, becasue the moral of the soty is a general one: people do not like to be reminded of their inferiority and weakness. Thats why Greece agitated so heavily against Germany although Germany bailed out Greece substantially, and that is why Germany is criticised in Europe substantially although it pays the biggest share of the bloc's bills and accepted financial obligations in form of Target-2 saldi equalling roughly one trillion Euros. And the same is with America: the way it unilaterally made decisions on Afghanistan shows how impotent Europe really is. The US can militarily roam almost at will globally, its logistical capabilties are one of its biggest strengths. Europe cannot even control its own borders form within. The US does not pay care for European animosities anymore and did what it and Australia wanted to do, without asking. Because Europe's opinion was not asked for - it simply did not matter, and has no strength to make itself matter.

A cobbler should stick to his last. The EU should consider this - but no, they already make big words again. Hubris is what will destroy the EU from within. The writings are clearly visible on the wall already. My advise to America I gave above. My advise to the European nations is: stay in your garden and enjoy it, but stop wanting to missionise the world beyond the fence of yours. And replace that wooden fence with a solid stone wall better sooner than later.

[mapuc]

Reading your comment gave me the impression that USA have given France and EU a smack on their fingers.

I hope it will not go so far USA leave NATO.

Markus

[Skybird]

And maybe it wouldn'T be a bad thing, imo it wouldn'T be, if the Europeans, instead of babbling about a Euro army with all the additional costs for double structures, would invest their funds for that into NATO and start "dominating" in it over the next ten years or so, limiting its operational reach at the same time to Europe and the Atlantic, and taking over roles and replacing assets that a more and more pulling-out America would leave behind while it shifts its ressources from NATO and Europe, to AUKUS, Pacific and against China. That imo makes an awesome lot more of sense than this endless debate about having NATO and a EU army with 27 bosses and 27 different strategic orientations parallel to that.
Such an army would suffer the same politically caused inherent weaknesses as NATO today does. But that is true for a European army as well, so no difference on that.



I also would prefer if only the numerically stronger natiosn are present in that to-be-NATO. We need to scratch capitals from the list of debating voices, so to tailor command and making decision making structures fit for quick decision making. Too many chefs spoil the brew. More members not necessarily means stronger clubs. As I see it, having too many chefs paralyse themselves.



I would prefer to have the Brits in, but I think it is necessary and proper to calculate such future developments without them. I would not accept them in if they go split ways in both AUKUS and Europe, their armed force snumbers simpyl are too smal for that shizophrenia. Same is true for France. Unfortunately both nations still cry big tears for lost grandezza of their pasts, and dearly stick to these memores, France even more than Britain (what makes Paris attacks on London over claimed fixiation on past glory even more ridiculous). Why these countrys are not big enogzh in armed forces to pla yin both arenas? Becasue in one arena they are playing against China, and that is a completely different league than what they got used to in military adversaries of the past 60 years. Half-hearted efforts against such a heavy-weight enemy will be terribly punished.


Lesson by the end of the day is always the same. Europe must emergency-scramble on learning how to care for itself, by itself. The US in my view clearly is on the way out of Europe.

And Europe needs to learn that one cannot hug, caress and kiss a Chinese viper without getting bitten and poisoned to death. China does not see Europe as equal, or anyone, for that matter. China is the centre of the universe, and everybody else is expected to kneel and accept that. Else they will make him. And that belief is millenia old.

Appeasement does not work.