Shortages

[Kapitan]

As we all know the UK is suffering shortages right now and its being exacerbated in the press that its all down to Brexit, well I contest that and here’s why:

There is a shortage of drivers globally, Poland is short 124,000, Germany is short 45,000 France 43,000 to give you three European figures

Source 1: https://www.globalcoldchainnews.com/...-pan-european/

Source 2: https://www.iru.org/resources/newsro...ages-soar-2021

The UK is claiming 100,000 driver shortages, however; we currently have a back log of 40,000 potential drivers awaiting a test date for their HGV licences, this has been caused by COVID shutdowns of test stations.
Another factor in the shortage of drivers is the closing of the IR35 tax loop hole, which has meant LTD company drivers now having to pay increased taxes.

In July 2021, the (UK) Road Haulage Association conducted a survey about driver shortages, with the top reason provided being "drivers retiring" (58.54 percent) - a problem the industry had suffered with for several years.

There is also a decline in under 25’s entering in to the industry, coupled with people who hold HGV licences that are unwilling to do the job for various reasons and what are those reasons?

First of all low wages, pre 2021 the average driver earned approximately £25,000 per year, this is roughly the UK average wage pre covid.
When you work out how many hours a driver does for that wage you get a realisation that they have been duped.
The average EU worker does a 38 hour week, the average truck driver will do between 50-60 hours per week, this means wages can work out to be as low as £8 per hour.

Now factor in a lot of drivers will be away from home 4 or more nights per week and in some cases a lot longer.
While away from home the driver will be living in a steel and fiberglass box that measures roughly 12 meters cubed, the driver will also have to be his own security guard while parked up because even in secure parking thefts of loads and diesel still happen.
Now place on top of all that if the driver parks in a secure rest area he will likely be paying £25 or more for that privilege.
The service areas facilities in many cases are well below hygienic, all to often showers are broken, unsanitary and not fit for use.

While on the road the driver will be expected to obey the Tachograph legislation which limits their driving time, also monitoring the working time directive, also factoring in route planning and delivery time constraints while making sure all the time your compliant to keep the DVSA and VOSA happy.
This is without having to deal with other road users, comply with weight limits and bridge limits, time restrictions in certain areas specifically London and now the low emission and Ultra low emission zones in London.

When it all does go wrong the driver is usually the first one blamed, they are also held responsible for any incidents or accidents regardless of fault until proven otherwise, in worst case scenarios they will have to face the traffic commissioner to explain their actions.

And your doing that for £8 per hour in some cases.

But the UK is not alone in this across the pond the USA and Canada also have driver shortages, so much so both the USA and Canada have recently made changes to their immigration policies essentially fast tracking foreign drivers who apply for visas

USA Driver shortages article august 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...drivers-abroad

Canada driver shortage article https://www.trucknews.com/blogs/unde...iver-shortage/

The International Road Union (IRU) (which work in conjunction with the world economic forum) Have stated the following:

"Transport companies however forecast driver shortages to intensify again in 2021 as economies recover and demand for transport services increases. European companies are expecting a 17% shortfall in drivers this year. This shortfall is expected to reach 18% in Mexico, 20% in Turkey, 24% in Russia, and almost one third in Uzbekistan."

Source: https://www.iru.org/resources/newsro...ages-soar-2021

While we are all aware of the current problems in the UK blaming the entire drivers shortage and Brexit for causing a food shortage this isn’t entirely accurate, nor is the UK alone in this problem.

The USA has recently had food shortages in some areas and I highlight some recent articles in which shows that this is the case.
I went for a variety of sources spread over the USA to show that it is not concentrated in one area.

June 28 2021 reporting on Los Angeles area

https://www.reuters.com/business/str...us-2021-06-28/

July 2021 reporting on South Carolina

https://www.counton2.com/news/local-...ries-and-food/

September 3 2021 reporting on New York

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/local-r...foods/6226414/

Bloombergs overview August 24 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...helves-stocked

It is much deeper than you think between Canada and the USA right now in terms of food shortages, yes some states in the USA have some shortages but they do have one key thing Europe doesn’t and that is substantial farm lands and a larger geographical land mass with a population less than Europe.

Therefore blaming everything on brexit isn't the right thing when the evidence shows its not entirely down to brexit for food and driver shortages its due to largely to world events and trends that's affecting global shortages and its not just the UK that is suffering as demonstrated.

Such shortages are also exacerbated because shipping containers which are currently stacked up in China Europe and the USA are unable to be forwarded or filled due to lack of ships in the right place and lack of containers in their right positions.

As many are aware containers carry the bulk of food stuffs globally and with the Suez canal shut down for one week because of the Ever Given debacle it has caused substantial delays in ports across the globe, add on COVID and port shut downs due to this means container traffic has come pretty close to a complete standstill, not to mention containers that are also currently stuck at sea awaiting berthing.

The global network of container ships is at least 4-6 weeks behind schedule and with nearly all developed economies using the Just In Time method for their supply chains this has a massive knock on effect in imports and export markets globally

See: https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-d...go-11628104583

As for Brexit in terms of freight movements into the EU from the UK on the customs clearance side it appears to have straightened out, we are seeing precleared goods transiting without delay cross border in substantial numbers, yes its more paperwork but this was to be expected.

Had the UK gone to WTO rules it would be a similar case in terms of customs clearance and forms etc, but the UK goods would have likely moved under TIR Carnet regulations which is what Norway Switzerland Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus and Iran among others use to come into and out of Europe daily and they do this without delays, so naturally this was always a possibility for the UK as well.

In summing up the Driver, Container and food shortages are not just persistent in the UK, but as demonstrated this is clearly a global problem in road transport as well as the shipping industry.
I believe this current situation highlights key fundamental problems using the Just in time method in some cases, but overall once world trade returns to a stable platform we can chalk this up as experience.

Acknowledging that Brexit has caused some issues which should have been expected I do not think Brexit is the sole reason for the problems the UK because other nations are facing the same issues right now in their supply chains, and transport systems.

[Catfish]

Let a few rich people profit from the destruction of the economy. It almost looks as if it is exactly what England and Wales voted for.

So not only the bar stuff left, also lorry drivers do not deliver beer anymore.
Brexit threw out thousands of workers and european drivers, an additional part then left in anger. It was a big thing not only in the media, demonstrations and strategy plans of companies to handle the situation. A lot of people are angry.

Seems Ireland found a solution

[Kapitan]

Just want to put to bed the myth about this new ferry route bypassing England from Ireland to upset brexit plans

Irish ferries started to operate from Dublin to Cherbourg route way back in 2013 so this is pre referendum so clearly has nothing to do with brexit all the ferry operators have done which they have been working on for a long time by the way is increased the frequency

Source https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.mari...launches361469

The biggest issue for a lot of workers wasn’t brexit it was the closing of the IR35 tax loophole a lot of drivers of all nationalities (me too bc lider) benefited from this yet as soon as it closed they upped and left

25,000 left the UK and we have 40,000 waiting to do tests yet there remains huge shortages globally with drivers not just in the UK and if you look at Poland who are stating they are 125,000 short Then you understand that no one really wants to do the job

That’s the real truth not many actually want to do the job anymore and it’s not because of brexit it’s because of many things but the common theme around the world is pay conditions and long hours

[Catfish]

True, also Corona has to be seen in perspective..

https://www.archyde.com/the-truck-dr...-the-mainland/

Still, there is no shortage experience here at the mainland, maybe it comes but .. we all know lorry drivers are badly paid so it is no wonder few want to go this way, especially when "foreigners" did it before.

We have a lot of foreigners here, too, people from Africa, Syriah and so on working for delivery services and trade transports, and a few have problems with the language, but it generally works quite well up to now.
Of course, if they needed a visum for every country in the EU it would be as painful as ridiculous.

[Kapitan]

Lorry drivers have been poorly paid for decades that I can agree
Drivers in 2018 were earning the same wage as they were in 1998 so 20 years worth of compounded inflation meant wage cuts in real terms

There’s a lot wrong with the EU system don’t get me wrong some of it is actually good and well thought out and implemented but other parts are just plain stupid

With the IR35 loophole closed many drivers simply did other jobs (as I did) all they wanted was the chance to actually earn a living that was decent for the task in hand

What we have seen now is 20 years worth of compounded stagnation come back to bite the government and industry squarely in the ass

[Catfish]

Still i would not underestimate brexit of having an impact. The exodus started in 2016.

Of course "When the pandemic struck and European trade slowed down, drivers were furloughed. Many went back to their home countries, to be with family.

But "Since the effects of Brexit, they haven't wanted to come back," explained Mr Gray.
"They can earn just as much in Germany, France or Poland, so there's no real need to be in the UK."

Since 1 January, EU citizens are covered by a new immigration system, which gives priority to high-skilled roles.
But HGV drivers are not among the list of eligible skilled occupations which means they are excluded from a skilled work visa.
So although it was Covid that made European drivers leave the UK, the new post-Brexit rules have stopped them coming back.

The Home Office said employers should "focus on investing in our domestic workforce, rather than relying on labour from abroad"."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-57656327

Can't expect Priti Patel to call back those bloody foreigners

[Skybird]

There are hiddne shortages over here, too, Catfish, due to broken supply lines. The fiasco in the suez Channel, the problems in that one big Chinese mega harbour and Corona quarantines count for that. Mainly it is still about supplies needed in the producing industry. It gets felt my riasing prices, longer times you have to wait for something or someone, and products unavialable (PS5 as an exmaple, or cars delivered without certain computer-run features and just one smart key because of chip shortages). Myself I am waiting since 10 weeks for an electricion to show up to repair a wall mont, and he will not come before another 4 weeks. Here, another factor weighs in: demographics, and general shortages in qualified craftsman.

I placed a new test order for Ubiquinol from the UK. Lets see whether it runs better early this year. Back then the order stalled completely and the involved company said they retire from continental business completely. I hope it works, saves me an awful lot of money even with now increased custoimes and shipping. Shipping time is not so much a concern, as long as it finally arrives they can even take several weeks, if they want. German prices: 60x 200mg Ubiquinol 70-90 Euros. UK price if you check carefull and look out for good offers: 365x 200mg 75 Euros including VATS, plus customs. It does not compare.

[3catcircus]

As was originally mentioned, this is a world-wide issue. It isn't just the trucking industry. Merchant mariners, freight train engineers, cargo plane pilots - all of them have tons of regulation, long hours, and lower pay than they should.

It gets back, however, to entrepreneurialship. In the US, the average base annual pay for a truck driver is around $45,000. For an owner-operator, the average is around 3x that.

Likewise - merchant mariner salaries depend upon what certifications you are willing to obtain a well as the type of vessel you work on.

Freight train engineers in the US start around $37000/year and at the 8 year point, it isn't even double that.

While the pay for jet cargo pilots at the big carriers is good, you gotta get there first - so pilots are behind the 8-ball salary-wise as they build hours and obtain certs and ratings.

Really, the issue is that freight haulers are in the service industry, so they aren't given the pay they deserve for doing work that isn't front-and-center until they stop doing it, resulting in bare shelves at stores and empty tanks at petrol stations. In the US, it doesn't help that unions are still nothing more than piggy-banks for organized crime (first the mafia, then realty, politics, insurance and banking - and it's worse now when it's all legal-like).

[mapuc]

Here in Denmark and in Sweden factories like Volvo has come to a standstill..lack of components.

In the Swedish news they said that now it's things like component, but shortages on Food could also be a reality.

Markus

[3catcircus]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Here in Denmark and in Sweden factories like Volvo has come to a standstill..lack of components.

In the Swedish news they said that now it's things like component, but shortages on Food could also be a reality.

Markus

I think that the entire world is currently balancing on the point of a dagger. Shortages, COVID restrictions (and lack of transparency from China, Ecohealth Alliance, and the NIAID leading to the very real possibility of this being a man-made pandemic), social unrest spurred on by social media, many more coups and brushfire wars than in the past...

It's all going to come to a head.

The question is - how? Considering that we are constantly seeing, very quietly and not highly publicized, a lot of advances in our basic science understanding about multiple varied areas, I hope that this would result in a new golden age for the entire planet. The realist in me, however, feels that we're more likely to destroy ourselves...

Shortages of basic resources can very likely be the match that lights off the whole thing... How many people in western democracies are able to grow their own food? Here in the US, we see how quickly society collapses every time there's is a natural disaster and electricity is lost for more than a day or two... There are currently "roof Arabs" killing looters in Louisiana after hurricane Ida passed through. In other western democracies that don't have a 2nd Amendment, I would be concerned that if resource shortages increase, that people might turn to lawlessness on a more routine basis.

[Jimbuna]

As alread stated, it is a worldwide problem and at least twelve months will be needed to sort it out.

BREXIT only exasperated the situation here in the UK.

[Kapitan]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Still i would not underestimate brexit of having an impact. The exodus started in 2016.

Of course "When the pandemic struck and European trade slowed down, drivers were furloughed. Many went back to their home countries, to be with family.

But "Since the effects of Brexit, they haven't wanted to come back," explained Mr Gray.
"They can earn just as much in Germany, France or Poland, so there's no real need to be in the UK."

Since 1 January, EU citizens are covered by a new immigration system, which gives priority to high-skilled roles.
But HGV drivers are not among the list of eligible skilled occupations which means they are excluded from a skilled work visa.
So although it was Covid that made European drivers leave the UK, the new post-Brexit rules have stopped them coming back.

The Home Office said employers should "focus on investing in our domestic workforce, rather than relying on labour from abroad"."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-57656327

Can't expect Priti Patel to call back those bloody foreigners

In all honesty here Catfish I have never been against foreign labor working in the UK, like many nations the UK is built on foreigners. (it wasn't this that prompted me to vote leave either and yes I stand by my vote)

A big issue I have is a HGV driver must under go testing and re training every 5 years, yet is considered unskilled labor even though if I went an got a job driving a 360 on a building site I'm classified as skilled labor, this needs to change, HGV driving is a skill set in its own right and need to be recognized as such.

My biggest issues surrounding immigration is just how quickly it really did get out of hand and it couldn't be managed because we had to have an open border as part of the EU agreement.
I worked with a lot of Romanian, Polish, Bulgarian drivers employed many of them too and they were fantastic guys to work with.
Even they could see the affect the open border policies were having on their own countries, one of the drivers I worked with Marius went home to his own village which before joining had a population of over 10,000 people had only 2,500 people in it.
Lets not forget history here with the mass exodus and brain drain from East Germany in the 50's and 60's its the entire reason they built the Berlin wall to stop it.

They need to do what the USA Australia New Zealand and Canada do and that targeted immigration, This is the first time I have ever seen Truck drivers enter the list of in demand occupations in the USA, and they are giving priority to that group and I think the UK should do the same with a caveat which states you have to prove that you have previously worked in the UK for a UK company in order to get a visa (in this instance)
Going forward the visa supply should be as the need is required on a case by case basis like it is in the other countries mentioned.

Those countries rather than getting all the benefits of Europe and lets be truthful there are many benefits being in Europe ended up suffering because their own people got up and left, this clearly didn't help them countries.

When you look at what took place between 2004 and 2020 an increase of close to 10 million in the population that is un sustainable in the long term.
The UK infrastructure and housing just could not keep up, in London & South East they need to build close to 240,000 new homes per year to keep pace and right now they are managing only 100,000 per year.
That makes it almost impossible for young people to even get on the housing ladder.

Yes I'm lucky I own my own home in the UK outright and yes I have a second home in Canada.
My 3 bedroom bungalow in the UK is valued at £425,000 in reality a first time buyer has next to no hope of even being able to afford paying that market price. (and yes I am very lucky I do not deny that at all)

I also take issue with my own industry here as well and hold them predominantly to blame for the current issues, which is no fault of the EU (but they do have some fault to bare) in this respect and here's why.

When the first groups of migrants came over mainly from Poland haulage companies saw a big opportunity to exploit the new labor coming in.
Knowing that the UK £ was much better than the other currencies in Europe the companies basically started underpaying drivers.
If we look at it and what happened using this hypothetical (but near reality) scenario if Gregorz came in the door with a class 1 license he was getting £100 a day to do the same job as me and I was on £130 per day clearly no brainer you don't want me working for you I cost too much money.

Quickly other companies cottoned on and reduced the wages, the British driver was told that's the market now I'm afraid and if you don't like it that's just tough, well a lot of drivers retired early or left for other jobs.
This lead to under cutting of freight rates which made wage increases impossible, this lead to major mergers and smaller companies going out of business.
And by the way this wasnt just a UK issue it was happening in all the major western EU countries too.

To trace a family members wages in 1999 he was paid £500 take home per week, in 2009 that dropped to £460 per week take home and in 2018 it raise to £550 per week.
So in reality in 20 years the driver had a pay rise of £50 per week, now add on 2% interest and realistically its not much of an increase is it, and that was a decent wage (near top end) for a driver who under took general haulage spending 4-5 nights away from home per week.

The EU played its hand by forcing the UK to adopt the driver CPC which lead to the loss of 11,000 drivers across the country many experienced old hands , this mandatory certification costs the driver out of their own pocket and even though they have to legally note it down as work they often will not be paid to do the course, those who do do the course and the company pays for it often the company doesn't pay the driver to attend.

On top of that when the UK wanted to introduce the UK Levy where non UK Commercial vehicles pay £12 per day to use the road the EU challenged this saying it was unfair to non UK transport companies.

Is it fair that a UK truck has to pay road tax in Germany, France, Netherland, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Luxembourg? so why is it ok for them to charge us and we not charge them?

Can you see why the UK operator was a bit miffed ?

http://transportoperator.co.uk/2016/...enge-nonsense/

The EU also stepped in to dissuade the UK (and this is mostly the fault of the UK) to enforce cabotage, which required non UK HGVs to do 3 moves and out, what we saw was foreign trucks being sent over for months doing domestic works at much cheaper rates and the UK haulier couldn't do anything about it, yet if the UK truck did this in Germany or France or some other countries it would end up in a massive fine.

So again you can see why UK companies were miffed to the back teeth.

But this isn't entirely about the EU this is about a global shortage of just about everything and everyone.

Here in Denmark and in Sweden factories like Volvo has come to a standstill..lack of components.

Volvo supply chain USA is also suffering the same issues, the Mexico plant has been closed down and re opened which has meant truck deliveries are well behind (16 months) engine manufacturers in the USA have also suffered with cummings and Detroit suffering as well as other manufactures.

Right now the USA is being propped up in food from Canada, its laughable that Iowa the potato capital of North America is importing potato's from Manitoba and Alberta.
I have seen a massive influx of grains and cereals to the USA much more than 2019 or 2020!
The best thing that happened to Canada that meant we can help out the USA is China embargoed Canola, Peas and Pork now its being diverted to the USA to help keep their food chain going.

How many people in western democracies are able to grow their own food?

Quite a few as it goes, the USA has substantial agricultural power as does Canada, Australia, and New Zealand these are export nations and able to feed their own population to a degree, as I explained earlier the USA is short in some food areas right now.

Countries like the UK are unable to produce anywhere near enough to feed the population and is a net importer of food, in 1984 the UK produced enough to feed the population for 302 days of the year, the balance tipped and it declined substantially.
Since 2004 its less than 230 days, and with the population increase that will only get lower and lower as we use more and more farm land to build houses. (currently going on in my own home town)

There are hiddne shortages over here, too, Catfish, due to broken supply lines. The fiasco in the suez Channel, the problems in that one big Chinese mega harbour and Corona quarantines count for that. Mainly it is still about supplies needed in the producing industry. It gets felt my riasing prices, longer times you have to wait for something or someone, and products unavialable (PS5 as an exmaple, or cars delivered without certain computer-run features and just one smart key because of chip shortages). Myself I am waiting since 10 weeks for an electricion to show up to repair a wall mont, and he will not come before another 4 weeks. Here, another factor weighs in: demographics, and general shortages in qualified craftsman.

I placed a new test order for Ubiquinol from the UK. Lets see whether it runs better early this year. Back then the order stalled completely and the involved company said they retire from continental business completely. I hope it works, saves me an awful lot of money even with now increased custoimes and shipping. Shipping time is not so much a concern, as long as it finally arrives they can even take several weeks, if they want. German prices: 60x 200mg Ubiquinol 70-90 Euros. UK price if you check carefull and look out for good offers: 365x 200mg 75 Euros including VATS, plus customs. It does not compare.

Shortages are affecting me here in Canada as well, my fridge died in November 2020 I had to buy a new one, because of covid and the slow down it arrived in February 2021, many others were waiting until June and July.

[3catcircus]

Originally Posted by Kapitan

In all honesty here Catfish I have never been against foreign labor working in the UK, like many nations the UK is built on foreigners. (it wasn't this that prompted me to vote leave either and yes I stand by my vote)

A big issue I have is a HGV driver must under go testing and re training every 5 years, yet is considered unskilled labor even though if I went an got a job driving a 360 on a building site I'm classified as skilled labor, this needs to change, HGV driving is a skill set in its own right and need to be recognized as such.

My biggest issues surrounding immigration is just how quickly it really did get out of hand and it couldn't be managed because we had to have an open border as part of the EU agreement.
I worked with a lot of Romanian, Polish, Bulgarian drivers employed many of them too and they were fantastic guys to work with.
Even they could see the affect the open border policies were having on their own countries, one of the drivers I worked with Marius went home to his own village which before joining had a population of over 10,000 people had only 2,500 people in it.
Lets not forget history here with the mass exodus and brain drain from East Germany in the 50's and 60's its the entire reason they built the Berlin wall to stop it.

They need to do what the USA Australia New Zealand and Canada do and that targeted immigration, This is the first time I have ever seen Truck drivers enter the list of in demand occupations in the USA, and they are giving priority to that group and I think the UK should do the same with a caveat which states you have to prove that you have previously worked in the UK for a UK company in order to get a visa (in this instance)
Going forward the visa supply should be as the need is required on a case by case basis like it is in the other countries mentioned.

Those countries rather than getting all the benefits of Europe and lets be truthful there are many benefits being in Europe ended up suffering because their own people got up and left, this clearly didn't help them countries.

When you look at what took place between 2004 and 2020 an increase of close to 10 million in the population that is un sustainable in the long term.
The UK infrastructure and housing just could not keep up, in London & South East they need to build close to 240,000 new homes per year to keep pace and right now they are managing only 100,000 per year.
That makes it almost impossible for young people to even get on the housing ladder.

Yes I'm lucky I own my own home in the UK outright and yes I have a second home in Canada.
My 3 bedroom bungalow in the UK is valued at £425,000 in reality a first time buyer has next to no hope of even being able to afford paying that market price. (and yes I am very lucky I do not deny that at all)

I also take issue with my own industry here as well and hold them predominantly to blame for the current issues, which is no fault of the EU (but they do have some fault to bare) in this respect and here's why.

When the first groups of migrants came over mainly from Poland haulage companies saw a big opportunity to exploit the new labor coming in.
Knowing that the UK £ was much better than the other currencies in Europe the companies basically started underpaying drivers.
If we look at it and what happened using this hypothetical (but near reality) scenario if Gregorz came in the door with a class 1 license he was getting £100 a day to do the same job as me and I was on £130 per day clearly no brainer you don't want me working for you I cost too much money.

Quickly other companies cottoned on and reduced the wages, the British driver was told that's the market now I'm afraid and if you don't like it that's just tough, well a lot of drivers retired early or left for other jobs.
This lead to under cutting of freight rates which made wage increases impossible, this lead to major mergers and smaller companies going out of business.
And by the way this wasnt just a UK issue it was happening in all the major western EU countries too.

To trace a family members wages in 1999 he was paid £500 take home per week, in 2009 that dropped to £460 per week take home and in 2018 it raise to £550 per week.
So in reality in 20 years the driver had a pay rise of £50 per week, now add on 2% interest and realistically its not much of an increase is it, and that was a decent wage (near top end) for a driver who under took general haulage spending 4-5 nights away from home per week.

The EU played its hand by forcing the UK to adopt the driver CPC which lead to the loss of 11,000 drivers across the country many experienced old hands , this mandatory certification costs the driver out of their own pocket and even though they have to legally note it down as work they often will not be paid to do the course, those who do do the course and the company pays for it often the company doesn't pay the driver to attend.

On top of that when the UK wanted to introduce the UK Levy where non UK Commercial vehicles pay £12 per day to use the road the EU challenged this saying it was unfair to non UK transport companies.

Is it fair that a UK truck has to pay road tax in Germany, France, Netherland, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Luxembourg? so why is it ok for them to charge us and we not charge them?

Can you see why the UK operator was a bit miffed ?

http://transportoperator.co.uk/2016/...enge-nonsense/

The EU also stepped in to dissuade the UK (and this is mostly the fault of the UK) to enforce cabotage, which required non UK HGVs to do 3 moves and out, what we saw was foreign trucks being sent over for months doing domestic works at much cheaper rates and the UK haulier couldn't do anything about it, yet if the UK truck did this in Germany or France or some other countries it would end up in a massive fine.

So again you can see why UK companies were miffed to the back teeth.

But this isn't entirely about the EU this is about a global shortage of just about everything and everyone.



Volvo supply chain USA is also suffering the same issues, the Mexico plant has been closed down and re opened which has meant truck deliveries are well behind (16 months) engine manufacturers in the USA have also suffered with cummings and Detroit suffering as well as other manufactures.

Right now the USA is being propped up in food from Canada, its laughable that Iowa the potato capital of North America is importing potato's from Manitoba and Alberta.
I have seen a massive influx of grains and cereals to the USA much more than 2019 or 2020!
The best thing that happened to Canada that meant we can help out the USA is China embargoed Canola, Peas and Pork now its being diverted to the USA to help keep their food chain going.



Quite a few as it goes, the USA has substantial agricultural power as does Canada, Australia, and New Zealand these are export nations and able to feed their own population to a degree, as I explained earlier the USA is short in some food areas right now.

Countries like the UK are unable to produce anywhere near enough to feed the population and is a net importer of food, in 1984 the UK produced enough to feed the population for 302 days of the year, the balance tipped and it declined substantially.
Since 2004 its less than 230 days, and with the population increase that will only get lower and lower as we use more and more farm land to build houses. (currently going on in my own home town)



Shortages are affecting me here in Canada as well, my fridge died in November 2020 I had to buy a new one, because of covid and the slow down it arrived in February 2021, many others were waiting until June and July.

My question about growing food was on an individual basis, rather than on a mass scale. That is - can the average 30-yr old suburbanite or 50-yr old city dweller figure out how to grow enough food to survive, preserve for the winter, or slaughter their own meat in the face of an extended shortage situation that could turn into an extended lack of civilization situation? Likely not - many people don't even know that pork was once a pig - they just see already butchered packages of meat in a store.

As covid lockdowns continue, shortages may escalate. At some point, some natural event (Hurricane Ida here in the US, for example) will knock out electricity for an extended period of time, or shut down some essential industry that supplies the rest of a region, country, or the world. That then further exacerbates shortages down the line. I don't know how long it'll actually take to recover from that type of cascading failure.

The question is when do things like shortages expand into full-blown societal breakdown? Do we need a breakdown to get western nations off of the "order it from Amazon, if it breaks we'll get another one" built-in obsolescence cheap Chinese production consumerism?

How do you increase real wages of average people, spur growth in production to end shortages, and stop the throw-away model that western society is in right now?

As to housing costs and wages - that seems to be a significant issue in every Western democracy. People have continued seeking more and more education in the hopes of increasing their earning potential. In countries where higher education is "free," it's at the expense of the taxpayer. In a place like the US, the phenomenon of "federal loans" means that costs will rise to meet what they can get from the person incurring the loan. The result, in either case, is a larger percentage of people staying in school far longer, resulting in incurring a larger initial debt or reducing their wage-earning years. I can't speak to other countries, but here in the US, you could graduate from a high school in any state and be ready to enter an apprenticeship, find a blue-collar job making a living wage, or go to college with the expectation of having an academic career or graduating with marketable additional skills. You could, up until the probably 1980s, earn a living wage and raise a family on just a high school diploma and a single earner. Now? Colleges and trade schools have to teach remedial math and english before they can teach job skills or a course of academic study. We have people with college degrees in worthless courses of study who can't get a job. We have two-income families (each earning a high 5-figure or low 6-figure salary) living paycheck to paycheck.

[Kapitan]

My question about growing food was on an individual basis, rather than on a mass scale. That is - can the average 30-yr old suburbanite or 50-yr old city dweller figure out how to grow enough food to survive, preserve for the winter, or slaughter their own meat in the face of an extended shortage situation that could turn into an extended lack of civilization situation? Likely not - many people don't even know that pork was once a pig - they just see already butchered packages of meat in a store.

To be honest being a "city boy" ive been know to kill the odd cactus so I don't give much hope of me growing food stuffs, id bet it would be the same for most people.

I have been in supermarkets where moms and dads have said to kids do you know where milk comes from? yeah mommy from a carton in tesco so again not much hope.

As covid lockdowns continue, shortages may escalate. At some point, some natural event (Hurricane Ida here in the US, for example) will knock out electricity for an extended period of time, or shut down some essential industry that supplies the rest of a region, country, or the world. That then further exacerbates shortages down the line. I don't know how long it'll actually take to recover from that type of cascading failure.

On the maritime scale were looking at being back to normal provided nothing else happens by around late Q1 2022 maybe Q2 2022 that gives you an idea of how out of sync we are, thats important as 90% of world trade is done via sea, and the majority of food stuffs is shipped by sea.
Note this is in a perfect situation IE no more lock downs, no natural disasters and no covid.

The question is when do things like shortages expand into full-blown societal breakdown? Do we need a breakdown to get western nations off of the "order it from Amazon, if it breaks we'll get another one" built-in obsolescence cheap Chinese production consumerism?

Amazons core distribution is based on transport road and air predominantly, with a limited amount via sea, so if they are all out of sync you can bet even the mighty Amazon will (and is) suffering.

Naturally it is a scale of economics, its cheaper to import products from China because labor is so cheap so western economies cant compete product for product.
In Canada its cheaper to buy saudi oil and ship it to Vancouver than it is to get it out of the ground in Alberta.

How do you increase real wages of average people, spur growth in production to end shortages, and stop the throw-away model that western society is in right now?

You need a throw away culture in order to spur growth and product development, take the early 1900's as a prime example how many times have you heard "in my day things were built to last" well that is one reason the crash of 1929 happened consumers stopped buying because they had all they wanted.
Products went unsold because the consumer simply said well i have one of these it works I don't need another.
With that mindset we would all still be driving model T fords and using a washer and dryer inherited from our grand parents, the throw away culture has led to growth and spending in a domestic economy.
Having the latest gadget has become all the rage take I phone for example every so often a new phone and they stop supporting the old ones, then they go on big marketing campaigns and if you haven't got the latest gadget your stuck in the past almost vilified for it.

The western capitalist model is based on debt, it uses fractional reserve banking to create money from nothing, without the issuance of loans the banking houses couldn't create currency, when they issue a loan they create currency from nothing, hence why we have a FIAT monetary system that's not tied to a commodity. (1971 president nixon decided that one)

As to housing costs and wages - that seems to be a significant issue in every Western democracy. People have continued seeking more and more education in the hopes of increasing their earning potential. In countries where higher education is "free," it's at the expense of the taxpayer. In a place like the US, the phenomenon of "federal loans" means that costs will rise to meet what they can get from the person incurring the loan. The result, in either case, is a larger percentage of people staying in school far longer, resulting in incurring a larger initial debt or reducing their wage-earning years. I can't speak to other countries, but here in the US, you could graduate from a high school in any state and be ready to enter an apprenticeship, find a blue-collar job making a living wage, or go to college with the expectation of having an academic career or graduating with marketable additional skills. You could, up until the probably 1980s, earn a living wage and raise a family on just a high school diploma and a single earner. Now? Colleges and trade schools have to teach remedial math and english before they can teach job skills or a course of academic study. We have people with college degrees in worthless courses of study who can't get a job. We have two-income families (each earning a high 5-figure or low 6-figure salary) living paycheck to paycheck.

I agree with your statement here, I think the swiss have it about right they cap the number of people doing degrees and further education to 20% of the graduating year.
This means you have to be very good at all your subjects to be considered for a place in a swiss university and also critically the majority of places are for swiss citizens only.

After all the more degrees you give out the less value a degree has, in many western countries now you can get a degree in just about anything.
Brighton UK university was offering a degree in surfing I do believe, I mean what exactly will a surfing degree get you?
And if your having to go back and do remedial math's and English before doing a degree course or having to do it alongside a degree then realistically isn't that saying something about your lower education system?

The degree I did was meant for my profession, its actually very niche so its tailored to transport logistics and supply chain.
I don't have the best grades from high school, the only reason I was able to even do the degree was because I have time in service in the profession which qualified me.

Two income families earning the average UK wage £25,000 per year each will be saving for atleast 12-15 years just for a deposit and likely they would have had to live with their parents before striking out, anyone who was trying to do that renting has very little chance.

Government says that 2% inflation is healthy in reality if you have 2% inflation per year and wage stagnation year on year you loose 2% of your purchasing power as a consumer, so is it healthy of course not.

I have to say though those who choose to do university education should pay for it, it should not be subsidized by the tax payer.
Yes the debt is like a millstone around your neck for years but why should someone who has little hope of getting into a university thus likely to earn a lower wage for life have to subsidies those that do go to university and likely go on to be earning more than the average wage.

I also think the individual has to take some responsibility as well, many of my generation (I think I'm a millennial 1988) seem to think it is there right to free education, housing, jobs etc well they need to understand its not a right its a privilege.
Many of my old school friends went to university got degrees and masters came out and because they couldn't get a job in the field they studied just didn't work citing its not the job I want or qualified for.

I have done jobs I never wanted to do because the money was more important than anything else, its only now I am doing the further education.
The key point here is I am doing it now because I can pay for it without incurring the massive debt.

In reality the friends that I had that went to University became detached from reality, I cant have that car because it doesn't fit my status, or I can only live in this area and my house has to be £500,000 or more and stuff like that.
My Mrs was of that same mind, when we got approved for a house here in Canada the bank said yep your good to $475,000 my eyes popped in shock, but she was ready to go by that house for $475,000.
It was only when she realized that we would have very little hope of paying it all back before we died that she came onto my wave length, We don't live in the city where a shoe box costs half a million, but what we do have is 3 lots and a 4 bedroom house at $175,000 and a mortgage that's affordable.
The house I have if it was in Winnipeg would be close to a million, so yes we made sacrifices.

I guess I came at it from a different approach I did what was needed to be done, I saved up, lived where I needed to live even if I didn't like it and then worked my way up to where I am now.

Yes I have debt, I do have a mortgage, I do have a line of credit and I do have a vehicle loan, however my income and out going balance up and I still make enough to save money.

The entire system needs a re think and not just in the UK Canada or the USA but globally, if I can figure this out and make it work then why cant no one else?

[3catcircus]

Originally Posted by Kapitan

To be honest being a "city boy" ive been know to kill the odd cactus so I don't give much hope of me growing food stuffs, id bet it would be the same for most people.

I have been in supermarkets where moms and dads have said to kids do you know where milk comes from? yeah mommy from a carton in tesco so again not much hope.



On the maritime scale were looking at being back to normal provided nothing else happens by around late Q1 2022 maybe Q2 2022 that gives you an idea of how out of sync we are, thats important as 90% of world trade is done via sea, and the majority of food stuffs is shipped by sea.
Note this is in a perfect situation IE no more lock downs, no natural disasters and no covid.



Amazons core distribution is based on transport road and air predominantly, with a limited amount via sea, so if they are all out of sync you can bet even the mighty Amazon will (and is) suffering.

Naturally it is a scale of economics, its cheaper to import products from China because labor is so cheap so western economies cant compete product for product.
In Canada its cheaper to buy saudi oil and ship it to Vancouver than it is to get it out of the ground in Alberta.



You need a throw away culture in order to spur growth and product development, take the early 1900's as a prime example how many times have you heard "in my day things were built to last" well that is one reason the crash of 1929 happened consumers stopped buying because they had all they wanted.
Products went unsold because the consumer simply said well i have one of these it works I don't need another.
With that mindset we would all still be driving model T fords and using a washer and dryer inherited from our grand parents, the throw away culture has led to growth and spending in a domestic economy.
Having the latest gadget has become all the rage take I phone for example every so often a new phone and they stop supporting the old ones, then they go on big marketing campaigns and if you haven't got the latest gadget your stuck in the past almost vilified for it.

The western capitalist model is based on debt, it uses fractional reserve banking to create money from nothing, without the issuance of loans the banking houses couldn't create currency, when they issue a loan they create currency from nothing, hence why we have a FIAT monetary system that's not tied to a commodity. (1971 president nixon decided that one)



I agree with your statement here, I think the swiss have it about right they cap the number of people doing degrees and further education to 20% of the graduating year.
This means you have to be very good at all your subjects to be considered for a place in a swiss university and also critically the majority of places are for swiss citizens only.

After all the more degrees you give out the less value a degree has, in many western countries now you can get a degree in just about anything.
Brighton UK university was offering a degree in surfing I do believe, I mean what exactly will a surfing degree get you?
And if your having to go back and do remedial math's and English before doing a degree course or having to do it alongside a degree then realistically isn't that saying something about your lower education system?

The degree I did was meant for my profession, its actually very niche so its tailored to transport logistics and supply chain.
I don't have the best grades from high school, the only reason I was able to even do the degree was because I have time in service in the profession which qualified me.

Two income families earning the average UK wage £25,000 per year each will be saving for atleast 12-15 years just for a deposit and likely they would have had to live with their parents before striking out, anyone who was trying to do that renting has very little chance.

Government says that 2% inflation is healthy in reality if you have 2% inflation per year and wage stagnation year on year you loose 2% of your purchasing power as a consumer, so is it healthy of course not.

I have to say though those who choose to do university education should pay for it, it should not be subsidized by the tax payer.
Yes the debt is like a millstone around your neck for years but why should someone who has little hope of getting into a university thus likely to earn a lower wage for life have to subsidies those that do go to university and likely go on to be earning more than the average wage.

I also think the individual has to take some responsibility as well, many of my generation (I think I'm a millennial 1988) seem to think it is there right to free education, housing, jobs etc well they need to understand its not a right its a privilege.
Many of my old school friends went to university got degrees and masters came out and because they couldn't get a job in the field they studied just didn't work citing its not the job I want or qualified for.

I have done jobs I never wanted to do because the money was more important than anything else, its only now I am doing the further education.
The key point here is I am doing it now because I can pay for it without incurring the massive debt.

In reality the friends that I had that went to University became detached from reality, I cant have that car because it doesn't fit my status, or I can only live in this area and my house has to be £500,000 or more and stuff like that.
My Mrs was of that same mind, when we got approved for a house here in Canada the bank said yep your good to $475,000 my eyes popped in shock, but she was ready to go by that house for $475,000.
It was only when she realized that we would have very little hope of paying it all back before we died that she came onto my wave length, We don't live in the city where a shoe box costs half a million, but what we do have is 3 lots and a 4 bedroom house at $175,000 and a mortgage that's affordable.
The house I have if it was in Winnipeg would be close to a million, so yes we made sacrifices.

I guess I came at it from a different approach I did what was needed to be done, I saved up, lived where I needed to live even if I didn't like it and then worked my way up to where I am now.

Yes I have debt, I do have a mortgage, I do have a line of credit and I do have a vehicle loan, however my income and out going balance up and I still make enough to save money.

The entire system needs a re think and not just in the UK Canada or the USA but globally, if I can figure this out and make it work then why cant no one else?

I think that the entire western economic model is irretrievably broken - going back to when we came off the gold standard. Not by itself, but when you have fractional reserve banking with nothing to peg real value against, it's a problem.

Now, there is no real definition of what constitutes a living wage in any given country since it's all one currency pegged to another. Best we can do is pegging it to the value of a barrel of oil. And we saw how that value went into the negative region last year "We'll pay you to take a barrel of this oil." That oil has a real value that is obviously out of synch with it's speculated price.

And that is likely also part of the problem - market speculation that has nothing to do with the actual value of commodities or company stocks - but how you can manipulate things based upon temporary changes in reserve currency exchange rates.

Fully agree that entitlement is a problem. I did ok in high school - good grades with college scholarships offered (but not completely paid for). High school was not a big challenge. I knew that if went right into college, Is probably not do well. So I joined the navy, became a nuclear trained janitor, got out, completed a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering in 3.5 years instead of the normal 5, and have been employed ever since. I make a very good salary. My wife, with 20+ years as a school teacher, makes a very good salary.

Combined, we are considered in the upper middle class, strictly from a wage-earning standpoint. But, we bought our first house in 2005 at the height of the market before the 2008 crash. We had to pay, between having to put a new roof and septic and boiler, and the difference in sale price vs mortgage balance, close to $75,000 when we sold and moved to a townhouse in a town with better schools for our kids. We also live in a state that has income tax and with very high property taxes.

Our "real" buying power is a fraction of what it could be. Someone living in a lower cost of living state, making our salary, would likely be able to afford a palatial estate. When we were looking at buying our new house, we were approved for a mortgage that was insane, but the price point for a single family home in that office range only offered homes in need of significant work or that were smaller than we needed. We ended up deciding on a townhome because of this. The mortgage company was like "You're only spendi g $300k but we approved you go to $500k. Why not get more house?" We explained that our original plans were to throw $50k as a down payment to lower the mortgage and buy more house since we could finance the entire loan since it was a VA loan, but we couldn't due to the costs to get out of our old home - so anything in a single family that was still at or below $500k wasn't worth the asking price. They looked at us like we were crazy for not taking on more debt than we were comfortable with. Spend $3000/month on a mortgage? No thanks.

People see the price, and forget that you're still having to pay for property taxes and insurance, so a base monthly mortgage payment is possibly double what you think it will be. There are people who are mortgaged to the hilt to have a giant home and an expensive car - but they have nothing in the home and are eating instant ramen...