Wuhan virus 2020

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jeff-Groves

1+1 = 10
In Binary.

It depends on your skin colour. Mathematics and its laws have recently been declared a racial discrimination thing. Since then, mathematical results must be seen as "relative".

[Skybird]

35 million doses of Modern vaccine planned for next year, which is used in Germany mainly for the booster jab, will be delivered earlier than planned, Moderna agreed, the German health minister announced. Background is that the inventory of his department showed a shortage of vaccine that endangers the boostering campaign.


Myself, I look forward to the booster jab on January 10th. If then vaccine is still available.

[mapuc]

A new Sad Record

Yesterday there were 8773 or 4.27 % infected Danes

Today the number of infected is 9999 or 4.8 %.

The government has issued stronger restriction-Which is kind of late now.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Jim, on what account does the virus run so rampant in the UK?

Can't say for sure Chris. Can only go on the official figures but Rockstar is quite correct on what he posts, get tested and said test is positive, get run over by a bus on leaving the test centre and that death is classified as a covid fatality

New here and fully admit to NOT reading all 639!! pages to date.


I watched this virus from the onset here and initially kept copies of the stats coming out of the Chinese Health Department, until they stopped. Switched over to the John Hopkin's site which became a daily ritual, then with all the under and non- reporting countries, that information became useless.


I will add, as an American expat, I am appalled on the U.S. State Department policy of not caring for Americans living abroad. They still tax us (one of only two countries in the whole world that does!), require me to verify my finances annually, and file taxes as usual BUT cannot be bothered with providing access to vaccines during a "once in a century" global pandemic.


Our Charge de Affairs in Bangkok donates +1 million doses of Pfizer to the country, the health minister asks if he needs to set aside any amount to cover American citizens living here and is told - NO, don't worry, use them as you see fit. Considering the American taxpayer paid for it, imagine how my wife and I feel about that.


As a retired military member, I can say "that's really sad" about my own government, considering China, Japan, France, Switzerland and maybe more nations by now, conditioned their donations with the agreement there citizens would be allocated a percentage of what was donated.


We ended up getting 2 doses of AstraZeneca (lucky as most had to take Sinovac for the 1st dose) and just got a booster shot of Moderna, which was part of a Red Cross donation which we were extremely lucky to get in on.


The AstraZeneca shots weren't bad, but boy that Moderna kick our asses for a full day plus!! Maybe one day, I will get to try out that Pfizer that I paid for!?!?!


Tim

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Family visits over Christmas will be down to individuals to decide on, the PM's spokesman says.

France puts tough new restrictions on travellers from the UK, who will need a "compelling reason" to go.

From Saturday, travellers will have to have a negative Covid test within less than 24 hours.

The Bank of England raises interest rates from 0.1% to 0.25% despite fears Omicron could slow the UK economy.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists England is not being put into lockdown by stealth.

England's chief medical officer Chris Whitty tells MPs people must make their own choices about festive socialising.

And he says there is still debate about whether Omicron inflicts a milder version of the illness.

The Royal family's pre-Christmas lunch is cancelled due to fears it would risk too many people's festive plans.

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

I read an article about people who are asymptomatic throughout the pandemic 2 out of 5 haven't shown any symptoms despite being infected. In the article there was a link

Maybe you can get something out of it

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2787098

Markus

[AVGWarhawk]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Can't say for sure Chris. Can only go on the official figures but Rockstar is quite correct on what he posts, get tested and said test is positive, get run over by a bus on leaving the test centre and that death is classified as a covid fatality

Today's news advised London is a ghost town.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by AVGWarhawk

Today's news advised London is a ghost town.

Yep, this is six hours ago.

TomTom reports 8am-9am London congestion level of 49% today as workers shun going into the office .

Lowest figure for that period since the end of the summer holidays on September 3, excluding half-term .

Photographs show major stations looking empty and normally-bustling areas appearing to be very quiet.

Number of commuters travelling on the London Underground this morning falls 31 per cent week-on-week.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...st-summer.html

[mapuc]

Many doctors and nurses go to work, despite being infected with Corona.

Their work area is very restricted-They only work with patient that already is infected with Corona.

Markus

[Skybird]

German statistical modelers expect that the Omikron infection rate per day in Germany probably will raise in early January to a value between 400,000 and 700,000. Currently, for Decembre 16th, the RKI gives an official number for all Corona strains and Delta infections per day of 56,600.

Medical experts say that such raised rates speak for that the raised infection rate is not only due to weakening immunity from vaccination after some time, but is a sign that Omikron in itself is indeed several times as infectous as Delta was.

Currently Omikron makes only a super-small fraction of cases in Germany. But in 3 weeks, Omikron will have become the dominant variant in Germany.

Usually it is said that Omikron is around 4 times as infectous as Delta, if not more.

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


-------------------
Researchers from London show what a rapidly spreading virus that can escape immune protection and is more infectious than previous variants could do.

"Omikron overshadows everything that we have seen so far in terms of growth rates in Sars-CoV-2 variants," says Dirk Brockmann, physicist and specialist in mathematical models at the Humboldt University in Berlin, at an expert briefing by Science Media Center Germany on Wednesday. The doubling of the number of cases is four times faster than with all previously circulating coronaviruses.

The situation is actually very similar to that before the very first corona wave in March 2020. Because Omikron can largely escape the immune protection of people who have been vaccinated twice and those who have recovered, the virus hits a population that is largely unprotected, emphasizes the Berliner Scientist.

"We currently have to assume that only people in the first months after the third vaccination are largely, but not completely, protected from infection by Omikron," adds virologist Sandra Ciesek from the University of Frankfurt. The situation is made even more difficult by the fact that Omikron can not only escape the immune system, but is also more infectious per se than previous variants.
Four scenarios for the further course

Accordingly, it is to be expected that a large number of people will be infected in a pandemic dominated by Omikron. This situation will appear to occur in Europe by January at the latest. For Great Britain, a research group from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine has now calculated what this could mean for the coming months in the UK.

Since some key figures such as the extent of the immune flight or the effectiveness of three vaccine doses cannot yet be precisely stated, the researchers have designed four scenarios: a very optimistic one in which the virus only slightly escapes immune protection and the boosters are very effective. In a very pessimistic way, the new variant can infect many vaccinated and convalescent people, and even three vaccination doses only offer moderate protection.

Even in the optimistic scenario, 20.9 million people in Great Britain (a good 67 million inhabitants) would be infected with Omikron between now and the end of April next year, 175,000 would have to go to hospital and 24,700 would die. In the worst scenario, there would even be more than 34 million infected people, 492,000 hospitalized and 74,800 deaths. In other words, a third to half of the UK population could become infected with Omikron by spring. The data available to date on immune escape and booster efficiency suggest that at least the optimistic scenario corresponds to a somewhat overly positive assessment.

So far there is no similar model for Switzerland or Germany, apparently due to a weak database. So you don't yet know how high the proportion of Omicron cases in all new infections really is. However, there is no reason to assume that the Omicron pandemic will turn out significantly different in Switzerland or Germany.
What will happen depends on the measures that are now taken

But it is by no means said that any of the London researchers' scenarios will become reality at all. Because all these numbers are modeling in the event that no further measures than the currently valid measures are taken against the spread, write the London specialists for mathematical models.

"It is a warning of what could happen," says Brockmann. Therefore, such numbers should be a loud wake-up call for politicians to draw up emergency plans now and take preventive measures. And the population must understand that the pandemic is anything but over with the vaccinations and limit contacts, adds Ciesek.

Mind you, the measures will be necessary to prevent overloading the hospitals and the health system. Despite all the terrible news, Omikron is not a killer for anyone infected.

Because two vaccinations hardly provide any protection against infection. But they can protect against serious illness. The vaccine effectiveness in terms of severe Covid 19 disease is still 60 to 70 percent compared to Omikron (compared to Delta, however, it was over 90 percent). And young, healthy people do not have a higher risk of disease in an omicron wave than in a delta wave.

It is unclear whether Omikron is more harmless, at least with regard to the course of the disease, as is sometimes claimed. Ciesek is not convinced that Omikron always causes milder gradients. According to initial data from Denmark, the hospitalization rate for Omikron infected people is similar to that for Delta patients. The fact that fewer people are currently dying from an omicron infection in South Africa than at the beginning of the delta wave could also be due to the protective effect of the vaccinations.

---------------------


Or more sunlight, Vitamine D.



Ah it sucks that pharmaceutical companies cannot make a fortune with selling simple vitamines anymore.

[mapuc]

^ Even though it was bad news you posted there were some light in the article.

Fully vaccinated is protected up to 60-70 % from getting very sick from Omicron.

In a Press meeting earlier today you could see the difference between Delta and Omicron when it comes to how contagious omicron is and how effective the vaccine is.

Last year at this time 3-4000 was tested positive. Today 9999 have been tested positive.
Last year at this time around 900 was in the hospital whereof xx was in ICU/Respirator. Today 517 is in hospital whereof 61 is in ICU and 42 in Respirator.
It's thank to the vaccine that the number of patient isn't higher.

But as the leader from State Serum institute said-If we don't stop this omicron from spreading the numbers in hospital may increase the following month.

Tomorrow the Government has issued a press meeting where we will hear about what kind of restriction we will get.

Markus