Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Yes, these logistics strikes are nice - and mean more, imo, than the Kursk situation currently.

Meanwhile the Guardian has reported that Russia knew of the Kursk operation already since January.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...zed-papers-show

And in Wuhledar, the Ukrainians are in serious danger of being encircled. They cannot afford that since these are some of their best equipped troops in their whole army. Loosing that would be a real big hurt.

Its reported that now 80% of Ukrainian energy and heating production is destroyed, beyond repair. Winter is coming. Go figure. EU promised to send electricity and aid. Zelensky asked whether it wouldnt be simplier to send more air defence so that that aid would not be needed. He has a point.


Well, Germany sent 5000 helmets early in the war. Maybe we can also scratch together 5000 wool hats.

This loss is very likely to disrupt Russian ground operations for 2024 and early 2025. The bombings show well the difficulty the Russians have in repelling Ukrainian long-range attacks.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

This loss is very likely to disrupt Russian ground operations for 2024 and early 2025. The bombings show well the difficulty the Russians have in repelling Ukrainian long-range attacks.

The question would be-How high percentage of the drones are shot down by Russian air defence ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

The question would be-How high percentage of the drones are shot down by Russian air defence ?

Markus

A very much bigger share than early in the war when Ukrainian drones could pratcially roam the sky at free will. Russian jamming always was world's leading class, they have improved their jamming capabilities much further.



When ATCAMS and Stiorm Shadows were dleivered, after th eintial suprise the Russian adoarted and the efficiency of thes emissiles also dropped. Same with advanced guiding ammunition for barrel artillery, whose aiming efficiency now has dropped to practically zero. Ukraine does not use these anymore although it still has ammo sticks since Russia can supress its guidance system more or less completely.


Note that the media rpeort only wher eukeiane strikes successfully, it does not report the duds, the failings and how mann misses there are for every scored shot.


Jammign fo these ammonitions takes place locally, so it is hard for Ukraine to counterstrike jamming equipment. Its not always comparable to big stationary or mobile (truck-sized) radar platforms. Some jamming equipment fits into a Rucksack and more compares to a big radio set. There are even electronic rifle-style handhelds that get aimed at incoming drones like a gun. But Russia also has the capacity for area denial of electronic signals, mainly designed for suppressing plane-based air raids and cruise missile attacks. These equipments are bigger, need trucks and trailers and generators.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Could it be that Russia sees them self as unconquerable and...

That belief is indeed part of their genome.

I would agree, you cannot conquer Russia, the most obvious reason is their size, the second their immense nuclear arsenal.



But Russia can very well be defeated - and has been defeated - outside its borders when it went onto more expeditionary styled adventures.

[mapuc]

Could very well be that Russia is world leading when it come to jamming, however we must not forget that some of the drones, missiles get through and inflict damage to Russia's war effort.

Seem to recall that Russia claimed to have shot down 121 drones in the latest attack on an ammo depot - The total number send by Ukraine in this assault are unknown-That's why I wonder how high percentage.

Here's more about Ukrainian precision strikes


Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

The question would be-How high percentage of the drones are shot down by Russian air defence ?

Markus

Not really Ukraine has enough drones and these were newly build facilities that even could withstand a nuclear strike but like always Russians build shyte and this could not withstand a couple of drones. And like this is the Russian way they centralize everything so not many of these kinda big supply facilities left this is months of production going into smoke because of Russian strategic failure.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

That belief is indeed part of their genome.

I would agree, you cannot conquer Russia, the most obvious reason is their size, the second their immense nuclear arsenal.



But Russia can very well be defeated - and has been defeated - outside its borders when it went onto more expeditionary styled adventures.

You don't have to conquer the entire country-There are enklaves/Oblast/region who want to be independent Cut of from Kremlin and in the east there's region who see them self as Chinese(If I remember it correctly)

On of these region who want to be independent is Siberia.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

You don't have to conquer the entire country-There are enklaves/Oblast/region who want to be independent Cut of from Kremlin and in the east there's region who see them self as Chinese(If I remember it correctly)

On of these region who want to be independent is Siberia.

Markus

China will take back Manchuria and Mongolia when they have the change. XI wants to make China what the Qing dynasty was. The Qing formed the largest Chinese empire ever.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Not really Ukraine has enough drones and these were newly build facilities that even could withstand a nuclear strike but like always Russians build shyte and this could not withstand a couple of drones. And like this is the Russian way they centralize everything so not many of these kinda big supply facilities left this is months of production going into smoke because of Russian strategic failure.

You're right-It's not how many they send, but how many who get through and hit their targets. I think only a few came through day before yesterday and hit Russia's biggest ammo-depot, out of....? Don't know how many Ukraine did send.

Markus

[mapuc]

Edit
I copied a comment to the video, since I found it interesting

Ohhh this whole "Ukraine is having an issue with conscription" topic!
It is gladly taken and shared by ru narrative.
The AFU is currently one of the largest Armed Forces in the world, with 1,250,000 on active duty, and an extra 2,500,000 in reserve.
Ladies and Gentlemen, may we remind you that Central and Eastern European Countries have not been "sleeping" since before 2014? It is not like we have not trained and helped prepare the AFU! And still are.
And the Ukrainian Govt in all of this?
They have done a better job than most Govt would have done in the same circummstances.
What they need is equipment!

End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

Since years there is chatter on how Russia will soon fall apart in coming years or 2-3 decades. Maybe wishful dreaming, maybe not. I dont know, and I dont take it for granted. I beleive it when I see it.


But if it falls apart - whats happenign to the nuke arsenal...?

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Since years there is chatter on how Russia will soon fall apart in coming years or 2-3 decades. Maybe wishful dreaming, maybe not. I dont know, and I dont take it for granted. I beleive it when I see it.


But if it falls apart - whats happenign to the nuke arsenal...?

Same here I believe it when I see it happen. How many times haven't we been hearing about the downfall of Russia ? Endlessly it seems.

I think it has to do with some type of psychological mechanism, a deep grown wish.

Markus

[mapuc]

I doubt that Russia is running out of war material



Edit
Ukraine is gaining ground in Kursk and Donetsk they say. I take it with a gran of salt

End edit

Markus

[mapuc]

Another one who say Russia is on its way down the drain



Markus

[Skybird]

[Tagesspiegel] Despite Western sanctions, Russia is relying on high oil and gas revenues in its budget planning for 2025. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at a government meeting in Moscow that state revenues should increase by 12 percent to 40.3 trillion roubles (around 390 billion euros).

The energy sector's share of revenue would increase to almost three quarters. The expenditure side is expected to grow less strongly to 41.4 trillion roubles (around 400 billion euros), meaning that a deficit of 0.5 percent of gross domestic product is to be expected.

According to media reports, the future budget is also geared towards the war of aggression against Ukraine and large-scale arms production. The financial news agency Bloomberg reported from Moscow that 13.2 trillion roubles are planned to be spent on the military. A total of 40 percent of all spending is earmarked for defense and internal security - more than spending on education, health, social affairs and the economy combined. Bloomberg referred to drafts of the budget for the next three years, which the agency was able to view.
-------------------


It is often said that the Russian economy must collapse after the war because it currently is still in war mode. But one can also derive a much more unwelcome interpretation from this. Namely, that Russia will maintain the war economy beyond the end of the current war. With all the consequences that this will have for Russia's military resurgence - and the Europeans still have no answer to this.