Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[MH]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I think it's got less to do with political systems and more to do with influence spheres. Russia fell out of the big game during the 1990s and has had to race to catch back up again. During that time, the west hasn't stood still, and has pushed itself up to Russias borders, and now Russia is pushing back again.
The near abroad still contains some nations which have not been brought into NATOs sphere, so Russia is certainly concerned about losing influence there, particularly in areas that it has traditionally held sway over. Russia has lost the Baltic states, but has managed to keep the other 'Near abroad' nations within its sphere, Georgia started to drift, but Russia put it back in its place in the South Ossetian war, now it's Ukraines turn. I would say that if Belarus had had something similar to this occur then exactly the same things would be happening.
The US does similar things in South America and Europe has been known to undertake actions (one could argue that one of the points of the Kosovan war was to weaken Serbia, a Russian ally) which superpower vies for control over different nations, this is a process that hasn't changed since the rise of civilization, all that has changed is the countries involved.

True , but for those geopolitical games to work there must be a infrastructure.
I say again give the Ukrainians some credit here.
They had been under corrupted government and russian influence/meddling or extortion for quite a while , nothing good came out of it.
Life is bad , economy is crap and there is no future so many of them went to the streets.
In particular when viewing some ex communist bloc countries enjoying mutch better prosperity while aligned with west - czech republic or poland.
It is not just about flag waving or geopolitical games although it also is....many jump on this wagon.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I think it's got less to do with political systems and more to do with influence spheres. Russia fell out of the big game during the 1990s and has had to race to catch back up again. During that time, the west hasn't stood still, and has pushed itself up to Russias borders, and now Russia is pushing back again.
The near abroad still contains some nations which have not been brought into NATOs sphere, so Russia is certainly concerned about losing influence there, particularly in areas that it has traditionally held sway over. Russia has lost the Baltic states, but has managed to keep the other 'Near abroad' nations within its sphere, Georgia started to drift, but Russia put it back in its place in the South Ossetian war, now it's Ukraines turn. I would say that if Belarus had had something similar to this occur then exactly the same things would be happening.
The US does similar things in South America and Europe has been known to undertake actions (one could argue that one of the points of the Kosovan war was to weaken Serbia, a Russian ally) which superpower vies for control over different nations, this is a process that hasn't changed since the rise of civilization, all that has changed is the countries involved.

Indeed! It would be a very interesting thing at this juncture if Belarus were suddenly to join the NATO Alliance, instead of awaiting a domino effect; Anchored along with the NATO member Baltic states: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, that would tighten the cage considerably, as per my previous post. The Crimea is a hollow victory for Putin; at any time we wish we control the Bosphorus through Turkey and His Black Sea Fleet is immobilized. His access to the Mediterranean from his only warm water port is completely cut off...he winds up with a lake all to himself. This little goosestepper really needs a moustache...and a shirt to go with his nag. It also would'nt hurt to freeze his personal bank account(s); after all, money is the sinews of war.

[VipertheSniper]

omg, Belarus joining the NATO, don't make me laugh, they are firmly in Russias pocket.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by MH

True , but for those geopolitical games to work there must be a infrastructure.
I say again give the Ukrainians some credit here.
They had been under corrupted government and russian influence/meddling or extortion for quite a while , nothing good came out of it.
Life is bad , economy is crap and there is no future so many of them went to the streets.
In particular when viewing some ex communist bloc countries enjoying mutch better prosperity while aligned with west - czech republic or poland.
It is not just about flag waving or geopolitical games although it also is....many jump on this wagon.

Oh, goodness yes, I was referring more to Russias reaction to the uprising rather than the cause of the uprising itself.
There has been a wave of unrest in a few former pact states, I know that Slovenia had some a short while ago, Romania had protests in 2012, Albania in 2011. I think that the honeymoon period of post-communist democracies is coming to a close as we now have a generation of adults who don't remember life in the Pact, and who have either travelled abroad to western democracies or seen information from them on the internet and wondered why their systems aren't as geared towards anti-corruption as the wests (not that we don't have corruption, we just have it in different places and it's a bit more hidden).

Now, in regards to 0300Z tomorrow, if I were the Ukranian navy, and I wasn't already planning to defect, I'd be wiring everything that is explosive to detonate, because the Black Sea Marines are not to be messed with, and they will take the Ukrainian fleet. The question is just how much the Ukrainian forces will be able to destroy before its captured. I'd wager that the Russian forces will be wanting to keep destruction to a minimum because they'll be wanting to give the infrastructure and weaponry over to the newly independent Crimea.
We shall see...with this level of warning, there will be plenty of cameras trained on the area, that much is certain.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Now, in regards to 0300Z tomorrow, if I were the Ukranian navy, and I wasn't already planning to defect, I'd be wiring everything that is explosive to detonate, because the Black Sea Marines are not to be messed with, and they will take the Ukrainian fleet. The question is just how much the Ukrainian forces will be able to destroy before its captured. I'd wager that the Russian forces will be wanting to keep destruction to a minimum because they'll be wanting to give the infrastructure and weaponry over to the newly independent Crimea.
We shall see...with this level of warning, there will be plenty of cameras trained on the area, that much is certain.

On yer six on that! I cant believe Ukraine sailors aren't scuttling their own vessels and placing small charges against some of the Russian ships just to cry "havoc" and unleash the Chihuahua de guerre. I understand (CNN) a Russian officer actually boarded a Ukrainian vessel and gave a surrender ultimatum at Sebastopol...I'd have shot the bugger for failure to ask permission to board and for not saluting the 'poop' were I the vessel's commander and then sunk my ship in the worst location possible port-wise!

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

On yer six on that! I cant believe Ukraine sailors aren't scuttling their own vessels and placing small charges against some of the Russian ships just to cry "havoc" and unleash the Chihuahua de guerre. I understand (CNN) a Russian officer actually boarded a Ukrainian vessel and gave a surrender ultimatum at Sebastopol...I'd have shot the bugger for failure to ask permission to board and for not saluting the 'poop' were I the vessel's commander and then sunk my ship in the worst location possible port-wise!

I think putting charges on a Russian vessel might well result in the entire dock being levelled. At least if you destroy your own equipment and then surrender, you have a more equal chance of the surrender being accepted, rather blowing up their vessels and then trying to surrender.
Sinking in the worst place in harbour would also be a tactic, but I suspect that the moment one of the Ukrainian vessels tries to move it will have its engines shot out by the supervising Russian warships.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I think putting charges on a Russian vessel might well result in the entire dock being levelled. At least if you destroy your own equipment and then surrender, you have a more equal chance of the surrender being accepted, rather blowing up their vessels and then trying to surrender.
Sinking in the worst place in harbour would also be a tactic, but I suspect that the moment one of the Ukrainian vessels tries to move it will have its engines shot out by the supervising Russian warships.

Wonder if a few frogmen my be venturing out after dark

[Oberon]

Looks like some of the vessels are preparing for a fight:



"Ukrainian naval ships crew lines railing w mattresses and hauls water hoses & fire fighting equipment to deck."

The acting president of the Ukraine has claimed that Russian vessels are blockading Ukrainian vessels in the bay, which makes sense if they do plan to unleash a 'storm' on them.

In other news, the US is looking at putting sanctions on Russia, but the UK isn't, presumably because it would probably hurt us more than them.

[Betonov]

Originally Posted by Oberon

.
There has been a wave of unrest in a few former pact states, I know that Slovenia had some a short while ago, Romania had protests in 2012, Albania in 2011.

Yugoslavia was never a pact state. Tito and Stalin had a split in 1948 when Tito refused to allow Yugoslavia to become a satellite, resulting in high tensions, threat of a war and even asasination attempts on Tito.
The ''split'' ended in 1955.
Yugoslav army maintained two defence plans. One for a NATO invasion and one for the Warsaw pact invasion.

Tito used the lack of influence by the USSR to gain aid from the west and start the non-alignment movement.





Just some quick history

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tito%E2%80%93Stalin_split

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Oberon

I think putting charges on a Russian vessel might well result in the entire dock being levelled. At least if you destroy your own equipment and then surrender, you have a more equal chance of the surrender being accepted, rather blowing up their vessels and then trying to surrender.
Sinking in the worst place in harbour would also be a tactic, but I suspect that the moment one of the Ukrainian vessels tries to move it will have its engines shot out by the supervising Russian warships.

SAME GAME and a Pyrrhic victory to boot if the dock is levelled; somewhat along the French (Froggies?) Vichy scuttling their entire fleet in '42 at Toulon. It's about Putin losin' face. At least a few charges in an ammo magazine would lend permanence to the debacle. As for frogmen, I think Putin has secured all the Scuba shops in Sebastopol in his brilliantly orchestrated (well entrenched) takeover. What is clear from the mattresses is 'mafialike': they've "gone to the mattresses" the 'Repel Boarders' order is obviously in effect..."by sea if not by land"

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Looks like some of the vessels are preparing for a fight:

"Ukrainian naval ships crew lines railing w mattresses and hauls water hoses & fire fighting equipment to deck."

Looks like someone is in for a good soaking

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Betonov

Yugoslavia was never a pact state. Tito and Stalin had a split in 1948 when Tito refused to allow Yugoslavia to become a satellite, resulting in high tensions, threat of a war and even asasination attempts on Tito.
The ''split'' ended in 1955.
Yugoslav army maintained two defence plans. One for a NATO invasion and one for the Warsaw pact invasion.

Tito used the lack of influence by the USSR to gain aid from the west and start the non-alignment movement.

Just some quick history

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tito%E2%80%93Stalin_split

I knew about the split, so why the heck did I put Slovenia in the Pact? I'm going to pull the 'Dumb Islander' card that Schroeder keeps giving me and say that I had a momentary lapse of history. My deepest apologies.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

SAME GAME and a Pyrrhic victory to boot if the dock is levelled; somewhat along the French (Froggies?) Vichy scuttling their entire fleet in '42 at Toulon. It's about Putin losin' face. At least a few charges in an ammo magazine would lend permanence to the debacle. As for frogmen, I think Putin has secured all the Scuba shops in Sebastopol in his brilliantly orchestrated (well entrenched) takeover. What is clear from the mattresses is 'mafialike': they've "gone to the mattresses" the 'Repel Boarders' order is obviously in effect..."by sea if not by land"

It does certainly look like there's going to be a fight, although the odds are not in their favour...but that does not necessarily mean victory for those who have the upper hand, as we know...but any victory in this will, alas, only delay the inevitable.

God help them.

[mapuc]

it all depend on what Russia and the "government" in Crimea do next

I could be wrong or remember wrong, but have any countries given after due to embargo or bojcot against their country?

I guess the answer is no

Then we have two choices, either we let Russia do as they do, as far they want to or we pull a line in the sand and say enough and take a fight

Markus

[Oberon]

I believe that the current plan is going for option a, as opposed to option b which gets us all killed.