Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Lavrov lies whenever he opens his propagandistic cyncial mouthpiece. And this spokesman of the Russian army who is so often on TV, the one wearing glasses , I have nicknamed "Comical Ivan".



Heavy shelling from artillery and cruise missiles, over 1200 targets hit in the first 24 hours of the offensive, claims Russia. Apparently small gains ont eh ground here and there, but only few major retreats by the ukjrioanian army, and immedoate regorupings and falling back into prepared positions. On paper it looks like an impressiove force the Russian have set up ont he gorund, but the many batallions they have amassed cannot be in that goold shape anymore as they once ma yhave been, most of them have seen combat and massive attrition before, and the moral is low. I cannot see , currently ta leats, that the Russian can indeed make a decisive gain on the ground, judging from what the media report. What worries me still is the ongoing reports about thin ammo supplies.



uring the first weeks The russian rolled into regiosn where the Ukrianians already layed in ambush, and then struck int the flanks of columns. with the amssove atillery barrahge it now may be much more diffult to hold out in such terrain and then repeat this tactic, which probably is the purpose of this massive preparatory bombardement: to drive Ukrainian defenders out BEFORE Russians roll in. I am curious whether Russian logistics this time function better.



And air transport with Western weapons is claimed to have been shot down by Russia near Odessa.



Netherlands want to send Ukraine armoured vehicles. Criticsm of the German chancellor mounts. Scholz manouvers, and manouvers, and manouvers more. He is simply not there, even if he seems to be there visually - and this art he masters better than anyone else. He like a shadow that walks around even where there is no body to cast it.

[Catfish]

After the de-arming Ukraine from nuclear weapons the US and Russia had signed a treaty to respect Ukraine's borders. This Budapest Memorandum imposes an obligation on Washington and the UK to support Ukraine and push back against Russia.


"This is not just a matter of living up to U.S. obligations. It is also about preserving the credibility of security assurances, which could contribute to preventing nuclear proliferation in the future.

A key element of the arrangement—many Ukrainians would say the key element—was the readiness of the United States and Russia, joined by Britain, to provide security assurances. The Budapest memorandum committed Washington, Moscow and London, among other things, to “respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine” and to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against that country"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-fr...s-obligations/

[Jimbuna]

Troops of Russian Federation dropped powerful bomb on hospital in Azovstal area in Mariupol: under blockages about 300 people, among them children, - Taruta Source: https://censor.net/en/n3335263

[Jimbuna]

Rape as a weapon: huge scale of sexual violence inflicted in Ukraine emerges Source: https://censor.net/en/r3331509

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Precisely why you cannot believe anything that comes out of Russia.

At this point, I don't think Lavrov believes Lavrov.

[Moonlight]

Phase 2.
This is becoming make or break time now for Putin because he has to win this next phase of the war. If the Ukrainian forces hold their ground then that puts Putin right back where he started, he can only bury so many bodies before his own citizens start seeing sense and saying enough is enough.

Donbas, is this the End Game?.
I expect the Russians to do a lot better this time than they did with that debacle around Kyiv, but at what cost will it come to his army?. The Russian soldiers reputation has already been shredded and so have their tanks, any more screwups and it could send the troops over the edge. Without that heavy artillery of theirs they would have been sent back home weeks ago with their tails between their legs, so they're going to have to win this one or Putin's army is finished once and for all.

[Jimbuna]

^ If the current day Hitler feels in any way threatened as to the outcome I believe he will resort to biological and or tactical nuclear weapons.

[mapuc]

W.US official: 7 planes will head to Europe within 24 hours to transport weapons to Ukraine

Edit
After having read Skybirds comment and the claim Russia had shot down a plane with weapon from west I thought-I need to find info about this

Russian air defence units say they have shot down a Ukrainian military plane carrying a shipment of weapons sent by Western countries.

The attack took place outside the city of Odessa in south-west Ukraine, Russian State news agency, TASS reported, quoting Defence Ministry spokesman, Maj Gen Igor Konashenkov as saying on Saturday.

https://dailypost.ng/2022/04/17/war-...stern-weapons/

End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

After the de-arming Ukraine from nuclear weapons the US and Russia had signed a treaty to respect Ukraine's borders. This Budapest Memorandum imposes an obligation on Washington and the UK to support Ukraine and push back against Russia.


"This is not just a matter of living up to U.S. obligations. It is also about preserving the credibility of security assurances, which could contribute to preventing nuclear proliferation in the future.

A key element of the arrangement—many Ukrainians would say the key element—was the readiness of the United States and Russia, joined by Britain, to provide security assurances. The Budapest memorandum committed Washington, Moscow and London, among other things, to “respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine” and to “refrain from the threat or use of force” against that country"

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-fr...s-obligations/

"Guarantees" are only a waste of air and/or ink&papoer whenever things get down to the real nitty-gritty. I take the weapon deployed and my hand at the trigger any time over guarantees given by somebody else who is not even directly affected.


One does not believe political promises - by no one. One just does not do it. Not after millenia of human history illustrating why it is a stupid idea to do so. One does not intentionally aim at an arrangement that puts oneself at the good will and mercy of somebody else. One must want to leave the control where it belongs - with oneself.

[Dargo]

The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation suffer significant personnel losses. They dropped their standards and allow 3-month contracts, but this has not brought in replacements.

– General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, operational information as of 18:00 on 19 April 2022

"According to available information, since the beginning of the year, only 130 contract servicemen have been selected to serve in the 42 parts of the Southern Military District. 22 of them have already refused to participate in the so-called "special operation" in Ukraine."

Personnel of two battalion tactical groups were destroyed in the 200th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade of Russia's Northern Fleet coastal defense forces.

Four companies of Russia's 106th Parachute Division were destroyed on the territory of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1516446967626358785

[Catfish]

Could this be done ..?

"Biden Can Seize Russian Cash In U.S., Harvard law Professor Says"

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Could this be done ..?

"Biden Can Seize Russian Cash In U.S., Harvard law Professor Says"

Gulp...! What was it with the German Bundesbank's never since then seen again gold treasury handed over to New York long time ago...???

[mapuc]

Found this interesting article in a Danish newspaper Translated with DeepL.

Start article:

Nato soldiers train Ukrainians to use new weapons, but where is the limit?

The US will train Ukrainian soldiers outside Ukraine. Soldiers in Ukraine say they have received training from British special forces inside the country.
Within "the next few days" US soldiers will start training Ukrainian soldiers at bases outside Ukraine.

The Ukrainians will get a crash course in how to use their latest military hardware: the 155mm howitzer artillery guns that are part of the latest US arms aid. US Defence Department spokesman John Kirby told a press briefing yesterday.

- We expect to begin training the Ukrainian armed forces in the use of the howitzers, which will be on their way there shortly, he said.

- The training will take place outside Ukraine and will involve training those who will be training others, John Kirby said.
The crucial point is "outside Ukraine".

Could open up a new situation

According to DR's defence analyst, Mads Korsager Nielsen, the NATO countries are still careful not to cross the line when they can be considered active participants in the war.
- There is a limit where you actually have soldiers in Ukraine, he says

- If you have people in Ukraine, whether they are acting as advisers or whatever you call them, it opens up the possibility that these people can be injured, killed or captured, and then you suddenly have a whole new situation," he says.

But the US Defense Department has become more clear-headed about what help US troops are providing to Ukraine.

In late March, the Pentagon was busy correcting President Joe Biden when he said US soldiers were "training" Ukrainian soldiers at bases in Poland. "Advice and assistance" was being provided, not "training," General Tod D. Wolters said, according to CNN.

Starting to look like a 'proxy war'

There are also signs that the British are taking a more active role. The British newspaper The Times has spoken to two Ukrainian officers in Ukraine who say their units have reportedly received training in the use of armoured weapons from British special forces in the suburbs north of Kyiv.

- They were nice guys, the British. They invited us to come and visit them when the war was over, one officer said, according to the newspaper.

The information has not been confirmed elsewhere and the British Ministry of Defence declined to comment to The Times, saying it never commented on the work of special forces as a matter of principle.

According to Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl, a military researcher at the Defence Academy specialising in the laws of war, there are signs that Western countries are moving closer to the limit of when to actively participate in war.

- This war is starting to look more and more like a proxy war, he says.

Sailing close to the wind

In the past, there was a clear line between when a country was an active party to a war and when it was neutral, he explains. Rules on neutrality date back to the 1907 Hague Conventions.

But various "proxy wars" have helped blur that line over time, he says.
These include the war in Afghanistan during the Russian invasion and the Vietnam War, when the Soviet Union supplied North Vietnam on a large scale with the missiles used to shoot down American aircraft. Soviet pilots also flew in North Korean MiG-15 fighters during the 1950-1953 Korean War, he says.

- So the Russians are throwing stones at a glass house when they accuse NATO of meddling in the war, says Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl.

- The crucial question must therefore be whether you are a party to the conflict or not. You are a party the moment you actively participate, and as long as the US, the UK and other countries are not actively participating in the conflict, they are outside the conflict, he says.

- But are you sailing close to the wind? Yes, perhaps in relation to the old neutrality rules from 1907, says Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl, but they must also be considered outdated, precisely because state practice and thus international law have changed, he says

Not unthinkable with covert operations

Russia has warned the US in a diplomatic note that continuing to help Ukraine with weapons would have "incalculable consequences".
- But what do the Russians intend to do about it? asks Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl.

- They are probably just as uninterested in going to war with NATO countries.
He doesn't know if it's true that British special forces are training Ukrainians in Ukraine, but if it is, he's not surprised.

- In these kinds of wars, there will often be what are called black ops - that is, operations that are completely out of the public eye, he says.

More advanced weapons take time to learn

For the Ukrainian army, it is indeed urgent to get crash courses in some of the new weapons they are being supplied with, says DR's defence analyst Mads Korsager Nielsen.

- The nature of the weapons aid being given has changed.

- Whereas in the beginning it was more simple types of weapons like armoured rockets that you could learn to use in half an hour, it has changed character to some quite advanced weapon systems, he says.
In addition to the howitzer guns mentioned above, the US has also sent artillery squadrons, armoured personnel carriers and drones.

- These are all things that take time to learn how to operate. In peacetime, such training can easily take weeks. Now it has to be done in a very short time, while Ukraine is trying to fight a battle with the Russians.

End of article.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Could this be done ..?

"Biden Can Seize Russian Cash In U.S., Harvard law Professor Says"

The introduction reminds me of Trump making Mexico pay for the wall. Now we hear it asked: can Biden make Russia pay for Ukraine weapons?

Sure the Feds can seize property they do it all the time. But in this country it can’t be done on a whim, seizure is a legal process, last I heard there needs to be probable cause that a law was broken and warrants issued to seize private property cash and assets. Call me crazy but it has something to do with the fourth amendment to our constitution. Even if the Feds did seize property, cash and assets it can still be contested in court and if the defendants lawyer is really good can have it all returned.

[mapuc]

A friend wrote this on his wall

"This I do not understand-Ukraine lived for decades under Soviet oppression and now they want to join the EU. Understand this, he who can

Markus