Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russia has no inexhaustible resources of men and material, what it builds up in +70 years is gone what is left is cannibalized or so bad it can not be used another thing if this was so big why would they import all that shells and barrels. Russian inexhaustible stock is a fairy tail Russia men lost can be a statistic, but those lose will have an effect on his production war production or normal production it will hurt Russia does not have a gulag in size as in WWII and that it is not called a general mobilisation tells they are not only statistics yeah the poor are but not the Moscow and St Petersburg regions not even a dictator needs to keep the nomenklatura and these regions happy else it could go wrong.

I'm not saying you're wrong when it comes to how Russian soldiers are being treated and how they feel What I said was.

Russia has ALMOST inexhaustible resources of men and material

Can't remember who once wrote that Russian has converted its factories to weapons production While military targets in Ukraine is getting destroyed.
While the West doesn't want to convert its factory

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I'm not saying you're wrong when it comes to how Russian soldiers are being treated and how they feel What I said was.

Russia has ALMOST inexhaustible resources of men and material

Can't remember who once wrote that Russian has converted its factories to weapons production While military targets in Ukraine is getting destroyed.
While the West doesn't want to convert its factory

Markus

Converting normal factories is a fairy tail modern amour, missiles and planes can not be build in a tractor factory same goes for the workforce you need trained personnel this is no T34 that you build. Converting a factory means also no domestic production if people can not afford food, you get rebellions. The west will not convert a factory because it is cheaper to build a new one problem in the west is that companies like Rheinmetall want guaranties to build new production lines, that is why you see them build it in Ukraine. Yes military targets get damaged that we do not know how much or how bad but in WWII Germany war production peaked during allied bombing.

Russia's stock is not 100% to use (there are satellite images of these outdoor stocks on the moment they are empty or almost empty) after more than 70 year stuff not working or can not be repaired know how Russian store things and that is bad and with the corruption a lot is there on paper only. Certainly after 1992 a lot is stolen and sold on the black market knowing Russians that did not stop under Putin, the biggest kleptocrat.

[Dargo]

A background for understanding today's #fire at Russian "#Wildberries" warehouse in #Petersburg. Russian companies obliged to pay a "slave toll" to the army, delivering a number of recruits. Some companies pay ransoms to protect employees. Wildberries, a Russian clone of Amazon, did the opposite: they mass-delivered slave soldiers, allegedly against some privileges for their business. Since 2022, Wildberries helped police to mass-arrest employees and forcibly recruit them. They pushed personnel out of the offices and warehouses into streets, where police waited for them, and arrested for the army. It was a well-known practice. Only in September 2022, Wildberries delivered 3,000 slave soldiers to the army, so many, that their warehouse in Koledino, Moscow region, could not function anymore. According to rumours, today's fire in Petersburg was set by employees who were furious about the plans of their slave owners to sell them to the army. https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1746140996289650986

Good old sabotage LOL it all adds up all those fires, bombing, food shortage and high prize on all normal products. The tinder is there, what sets it alight is the Russian people. The key to success this too is true for all revolutions is the refusal by the police and military, to restore order and defend the old regime. Putin has with his upping in defence also put a lot of money in internal security forces, good the less there can go to the war. With the debt Russia has, it is thinking of going to place it in Yuan, becoming the vassal of China. How swell did that plan "3 days to Kyiv" got to "second-best army to vassal of China". Do the maths, all "great" empires fall from inside decayed regimes inevitably elevate leaders of stunning incompetence, corruption and imbecility, figures like Czar Nicholas II and Putin.

Wildberries company claims it is negotiating with rescue services to use a helicopter to put out the fire at the warehouse in St Petersburg. So if there's a fire in Russia and the smoke from it covers half of St Petersburg - negotiations with firepersons are needed so they will start work. If someone gets robbed in Russia - should that person start negotiating with the police? This is complete breakdown of the system if "connections" are needed even for issues like this one. There have been at least 50 large fires in the past 5-6 months in the large warehouses in Russia, mostly in Moscow region and St Petersburg. No one was punished. There have been rumors that with the sanctions it is more profitable to burn down the building and get payments from insurance than upkeep half-empty spaces. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/...99968069267674 ... have no words

[Skybird]

This is attrition warfare at its worst. Big numbers count heavier than better quality.



On klast nihts air attacks, Russia score dbetter since a few nights, and especially the last two. this is becasue air dfences run out of msisiles - they must prioritize targets, cant afford to shoot down every air target anymore.



Same with artillery, they had a 1o minutes docu on it on a German news channel yesterday. The artillery unit the reporter team visited, fired just a fraction of rounds that they fired a year ago, the comamnder said, two roudn spe rhour, foten just two rounds over the whole day. He said that its not enough to impress the Russians anymore, its just a way to reassure them that they are still there. Artillery ammo is strictly rationed. The soldiers did not diretcly say it, but the reporter said the mood was muted and optimism was not to be seen. Right now the men just did their job by habit.



The Russians will continue on the gporund like they did so far at least until after the US elections, I expect. The air attacks will continue at elast over the winter. They know they have Ukraine defence production with its back against the wall, and the Russians thisd winter go after the (now decentralised) Ukrainian production as well as after the powergrid (again).


Its not important whether the Western news sources think Russia could or could not have thes eammuntion stocks and weapons numbers. They fire with them, and they blow up stuff with them, and so I assume its a safe bet they indeed do have them. As long as I am not hallucinating, that is.


Which is no surprise, since Ukraine is prevented from getting the reach to go after the Russian war production centres. While the Ukrainian production is a target, the Russian production is not. Well.

[Dargo]

These 6 months Ukraine does the bigger attrition warfare in the long run and this will be a long war Russia will not keep up Ukraine has more and richer allies than Russia Ukraine will get what it needs to win this maybe not on the front that is not needed Russia is so good at losing it will eat itself. Precision is important Russia can fire, and they blow up stuff with them, but mostly they are not the target that is not winning a war. Russian missiles are of low-quality and have poor guidance, they explode in-flight or miss their targets often.

[Dargo]

Russia Might Be Running Out Of Tanks

Russia could run out of infantry fighting vehicles in two or three years, if a recent assessment is accurate. It might run out of tanks around the same time.

According to one count, the Russian armed forces went to war in Ukraine in February 2022 with 2,987 tanks. After 23 months of hard fighting, the Russians have lost at least 2,619 tanks that independent analysts can confirm.

That’s 1,725 ​​destroyed, 145 damaged, 205 abandoned and 544 captured T-55s, T-62s, T-72s, T-80s and T-90s.

If the Kremlin didn’t have options for replacing war losses, the Russian military would be down to just 368 tanks: far too few to defend against Ukraine’s own armor corps, which between pre-war tanks, restored tanks and donated tanks—minus losses—might number around a thousand vehicles.

But the Kremlin does have sources of replacement tanks: the Uralvagonzavod factory in southern Russia, which manufactures new T-90Ms, plus four other facilities that repair and modernize old tanks that have been moldering in storage. Some for decades.

The big question—one that no outside analyst definitively has answered—is how many tanks Uralvagonzavod can build, and how tanks the other plants can repair.

The Kremlin claims it received 1,500 new and modernized tanks following an intensive industrial effort that roughly tripled vehicle-generation in 2023. If that’s true—a big if—it would be reasonable to assume the Russian armed forces received around 500 new and modernized tanks in 2022.

Three thousand pre-war tanks minus 2,600 wartime losses plus 2,000 replacement tanks equals 2,400 tanks. As the Russian military added new formations in the 23 months since widening the war, so each field army, division, brigade and regiment would have fewer tanks than it would have had before 2022.

All the same, 2,400 tanks probably is ... enough tanks. Enough, that is, as long as the war is “positional” and neither side is hinging its strategy on a swift armored breakthrough deep into the enemy’s rear.

But here’s the catch. Russia might have fewer than 2,400 active tanks. Many fewer. Because Russia might not be generating nearly as many new and modernized tanks as the Kremlin has claimed.

Kyiv-based Militarnyi took a careful look at a separate analysis from French open-source intelligence cell ARI and arrived at a startling conclusion. Startling to advocates of Russian aggression, that is.

“The pace of work, according to ARI, is significantly lower than Russian propaganda says,” Militarnyi reported. According to the combined assessment, Russian industry is generating just 390 tanks a year. Meaning it may have built or restored just 780 tanks in 2022 and 2023.

If that’s true, then the Russian armed forces might be down to just 1,180 tanks. Perhaps slightly more tanks than the Ukrainian armed forces currently possess.

Worse for the Russians, lately they’ve been losing—in suicidal frontal assaults—far more tanks than they could replace even in the most optimistic industrial scenario. All that is to say, the Russians might be running out of tanks.

If the Kremlin’s goal is to achieve an armored breakthrough, it first must rebuild its tank corps. That means, at the very least, losing fewer tanks—if not also generating many more replacement tanks. That begs for “prolonged stagnation at the front,” Militarnyi explained.

But the Kremlin isn’t letting the war stagnate. Instead, it has launched sloppy frontal assaults at several points along the 600-mile front line of the wider war. Only one, the assault north of Bakhmut, has resulted in meaningful advances for the Russians—and all have cost Russian field armies more tanks than they can afford to lose.

The implications, as Russia’s war on Ukraine grinds toward its third year, are obvious. Russia’s threat—to outlast Ukraine and its allies in a long war of attrition—might be an empty one. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...-out-of-tanks/

[Skybird]

In three years...? Wowh, thats a great relief for Ukraine. It only must get along in 2024, 2025 and 2026. In 2027 Russia then runs out of tanks. Its economy may crash. Its labour pool may be eroded. All nice and well, I expected right that in the long run. Say, in three years or so.


And until then...?


Lets hope stupidity goes on a rampage amongst Russian planners. If that 3 year scenario get worstened for Russia to a one year scenario - then I will start sounding less pessimistic. Say, this month next year.

[Dargo]

The entire Moscow metropolitan area, population 22 million, will have rolling blackouts of electricity "not to exceed 12 hours per day" from January 14 through March 31, 2024. Failing infrastructure, those 12 hours with electric off are to keep the system functional, not to fix it. Probably the inefficient management and no upgrades done in the last 20 years. Instead of fixing the nation, they called it to war death instead of normality, and they are proud, so proud. And the North Koreans are showing their support for Russia by conserving energy.



Last winter, Russians gloated over the prospect of Europe freezing to death without Russian gas and cheered as their army bombed Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This winter, Russian heating and power systems are collapsing amid a major freeze. Karma has a wicked sense of humour.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

In three years...? Wowh, thats a great relief for Ukraine. It only must get along in 2024, 2025 and 2026. In 2027 Russia then runs out of tanks. Its economy may crash. Its labour pool may be eroded. All nice and well, I expected right that in the long run. Say, in three years or so.


And until then...?


Lets hope stupidity goes on a rampage amongst Russian planners. If that 3 year scenario get worstened for Russia to a one year scenario - then I will start sounding less pessimistic. Say, this month next year.

As we peruse the annals of this great nation's history, one can't help but be struck by the remarkable period of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, particularly under the stewardship of Tsar Alexander II. It was, by all accounts, an era that could almost be mistaken for prosperous, at least by the rather colourful standards of Russian history.

Consider, if you will, the liberation of the serfs in 1861. A most noble gesture, indeed! It must have been rather bewildering for those poor souls, suddenly unshackled yet curiously adrift in the vast Russian landscape. One imagines them, blinking in the sunlight, asking themselves, “What now?” It's all rather reminiscent of a Chekhov play, isn't it?

And then, of course, there was the industrial expansion, epitomized by the ambitious construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway. One can only marvel at the audacity of connecting such vast, and let's be frank, often inhospitable tracts of land. I daresay, the journey from Moscow to Vladivostok must have been quite the adventure, replete with the romance of the unknown and, dare I say, an ample dose of Siberian chill.

This epoch also saw noteworthy strides in legal and educational reforms. The Russian judicial system, taking tentative steps towards modernization, was rather like a bear learning to dance admirable, though not without a certain awkwardness. The burgeoning educated middle class, now able to read and reflect upon their own societal woes, must have found themselves in a bit of a literary conundrum, grappling with the existential weight of Tolstoy and the melancholic introspection of Dostoevsky.

Yet, amidst these advancements, the undercurrent of discontent simmered, inexorably leading to the seismic shift of the 1917 Revolution. It seems Russia's fortunes are always a bit like her winters, any warmth is invariably followed by a return to frost.

Now, let us ponder the year 1941, a time of unparalleled tribulation. The Nazi invasion brought a calamity of such magnitude that it would leave an indelible scar on the Russian psyche. The sheer scale of the suffering, the loss of life, the siege of cities like Leningrad, it's all rather Wagnerian, isn't it?

Then we arrive at 1961, a year of soaring achievement with Yuri Gagarin's celestial escapade. Indeed, Russia was first in the Space Race, a fact I'm sure our American friends begrudgingly acknowledge at dinner parties. Yet, back on terra firma, the Soviet Union was, shall we say, less than stellar in addressing the mundane matters of political freedom and economic efficiency.

In conclusion, Russian history is like a grand, if somewhat overwrought, novel full of sound and fury, signifying, well, quite a lot, actually. It's a narrative rich in contrasts, where each chapter of progress is dogged by the footnotes of strife. A fascinating read, albeit one that leaves the reader pining for a cup of strong tea, a lie-down and read up on this mighty great empire.

[mapuc]

Good question - Who's in charge of the Russian forces ?



Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

As we peruse the annals of this great nation's history, one can't help but be struck by the remarkable period of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, particularly under the stewardship of Tsar Alexander II. It was, by all accounts, an era that could almost be mistaken for prosperous, at least by the rather colourful standards of Russian history.

Consider, if you will, the liberation of the serfs in 1861. A most noble gesture, indeed! It must have been rather bewildering for those poor souls, suddenly unshackled yet curiously adrift in the vast Russian landscape. One imagines them, blinking in the sunlight, asking themselves, “What now?” It's all rather reminiscent of a Chekhov play, isn't it?

And then, of course, there was the industrial expansion, epitomized by the ambitious construction of the Trans-Siberian Railway. One can only marvel at the audacity of connecting such vast, and let's be frank, often inhospitable tracts of land. I daresay, the journey from Moscow to Vladivostok must have been quite the adventure, replete with the romance of the unknown and, dare I say, an ample dose of Siberian chill.

This epoch also saw noteworthy strides in legal and educational reforms. The Russian judicial system, taking tentative steps towards modernization, was rather like a bear learning to dance admirable, though not without a certain awkwardness. The burgeoning educated middle class, now able to read and reflect upon their own societal woes, must have found themselves in a bit of a literary conundrum, grappling with the existential weight of Tolstoy and the melancholic introspection of Dostoevsky.

Yet, amidst these advancements, the undercurrent of discontent simmered, inexorably leading to the seismic shift of the 1917 Revolution. It seems Russia's fortunes are always a bit like her winters, any warmth is invariably followed by a return to frost.

Now, let us ponder the year 1941, a time of unparalleled tribulation. The Nazi invasion brought a calamity of such magnitude that it would leave an indelible scar on the Russian psyche. The sheer scale of the suffering, the loss of life, the siege of cities like Leningrad, it's all rather Wagnerian, isn't it?

Then we arrive at 1961, a year of soaring achievement with Yuri Gagarin's celestial escapade. Indeed, Russia was first in the Space Race, a fact I'm sure our American friends begrudgingly acknowledge at dinner parties. Yet, back on terra firma, the Soviet Union was, shall we say, less than stellar in addressing the mundane matters of political freedom and economic efficiency.

In conclusion, Russian history is like a grand, if somewhat overwrought, novel full of sound and fury, signifying, well, quite a lot, actually. It's a narrative rich in contrasts, where each chapter of progress is dogged by the footnotes of strife. A fascinating read, albeit one that leaves the reader pining for a cup of strong tea, a lie-down and read up on this mighty great empire.

How does this help Ukraine to survive NOW ? How does it compensate for ammo shortages ? How does it take out Russian gunships, missiles, tanks, artillery?

I admit Russian history currently is not even a blip at the outer rim of my radar screen. The past does not matter for what happens on the battlefield right now.

Dont get me as being rude, but Ukraine needs shells NOW, and SAMs NOW, and long range missiles for deep interdiction strikes against production and logistics networks inside Russia NOW - not history lessons explaining why the enemy in the future might suffer this or that fate. In the very logn term Russia will pay for this war even if it were victorious, demographically and economically it looses, I never denied that. But that does not matter for the imminent one, two years of the war. You cant sell the skin before you have caught the bear. Right now there is no chance to catch it ever. Chances currently are that in the end he catches you. Ukraine is being outproduced in military supplies. Ukraine'S supplies shrink. Russia's grow.

And politically the mometum is Russia's, while the West stagnates.

[Dargo]

With the ammo "shortages" Ukraine still destroys/damage tanks, artillery and soldiers in double digits it still repels the attacks by the Russian daily maybe that shortage is not that short for some ammo I do not know, but it is better to shout fire before the massive fire spread through the whole front, and it still gets ammo delivered from the west we have running contracts with Ukraine (Slovakia still allow sale of ammunition and weapons also green lit European Council conclusions that included military aid for Ukraine.) this will continue there is still aid being delivered economical and military this will not stop even when the US does not can give support. That 50 billion from the EU will pass this year also not that the money given in the past was spent, those were spread out over years. You can not assume if the US is out it all stops in the EU the majority is for to give support that will continue, and you do not either I know what is given most countries do not publicly share that information. The EU maybe can not produce on the moment, but it will end of this year in the meantime we can and will buy the needed ammo NATO will give what it has in parts out of stock than place the order to fill their stock again. We do not have the same foe in the east that has half of its army in a war that is bogged down, so an attack on NATO is not to be expected in years to come. There are in the EU at least 2 countries that have as much as Germany that are only 2 smaller countries I can give you more and those countries promised to give about the same or more this year so where is the stagnation in the west when a lot give more than the 4th economy of the world. These are no dreams or optimism, they are facts Ukraine still will get more aid from richer allies than Russia gets. Contract mend for other countries are already bought for Ukraine those countries have agreed that their order will be delayed and that what was ordered will go to Ukraine these are not countries that are involved in any way in the conflict there is more happening than you and I know behind the scene to say "the West" fails.

Ukraine’s Long-Term Path to Success: Jumpstarting a Self-Sufficient Defense Industrial Base with US and EU Support

Ukraine is dramatically expanding its defense industrial capacity to develop the ability over time to satisfy its military requirements with significantly reduced foreign military assistance. Ukraine is pursuing three primary lines of effort to achieve this goal: increasing its domestic defense industrial base (DIB), building bilateral and multilateral partnerships with European states, and pursuing industrial joint ventures with the United States and other international enterprises to co-produce defense materials in Ukraine and elsewhere. Ukraine will require considerable Western military assistance for several years, and its ability to reduce its dependence on such assistance depends in part on whether it can liberate strategically vital areas currently occupied by Russian forces, among other factors. But Ukraine and its Western partners are executing a realistic plan to create a sustainable basis for Ukraine to be able to defend itself over the long term with dramatically reduced foreign military assistance.

Ukrainian Domestic Arms Production
Ukraine’s prospects for sustaining its military forces with limited assistance over the long term are excellent. Ukraine is heavily industrialized with a highly educated and technically sophisticated population. It had a massive arms industry during the Soviet period and continued to be a significant arms exporter after independence. The Russian occupation of key industrial areas and destruction of important centers of weapons production, especially the Kharkiv tank factory, has degraded but not eliminated the solid base on which Ukraine can build a viable DIB to support its military forces in the future.

Ukraine has been expanding its DIB domestically and abroad since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion. Ukraine’s domestic arms industry at the start of 2024 produces a higher volume of weapons than it did before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, despite Russian efforts to cripple Ukraine’s DIB.[1] Kyiv intensified its efforts to expand its DIB in 2023. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stated in June 2023 that Ukraine could become the “center of modern weapons production in Europe” through cooperation with international industry to localize arms production in Ukraine.[2] Shmyhal stated in October 2023 that Ukraine understands that it must produce weapons in Ukraine to offset global ammunition and gunpowder shortages affecting all states’ weapons procurement.[3] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced in December 2023 that Ukraine’s task is to make itself “so strong and effective” that it can resist Russian aggression – a goal that Zelensky said Ukraine can only accomplish through the “sufficient production of domestic weapons.”[4] Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov Stated in December 2023 that Ukraine has developed a strategy for domestic defense production and has launched programs to reduce the risk of shortages of ammunition, missiles, and other military equipment.[5] Umerov identified the goal of increasing Ukraine’s domestic production of weapons and military equipment as a priority for 2024.[6] This effort is advancing a short-term objective of immediately supplying Ukrainian troops on the battlefield and a long-term objective of ensuring that Ukraine can be more self-sufficient and less reliant on external security assistance in the future.

Ukraine has been expanding its DIB capabilities domestically and abroad since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion to offset ammunition and weapon shortages, repair military equipment, and develop new weapons. Ukraine’s domestic arms industry in 2024 now produces a higher volume of weapons than it did before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, despite Russian efforts to cripple Ukraine’s DIB.[7] Zelensky stated on December 27, 2023, that Ukraine produced three times as much equipment and weapons in 2023 as it did in 2022.[8] Ukroboronprom (Ukrainian Defense Industry) - the Ukrainian state-owned joint-stock company that holds Ukraine’s defense industry companies - increased its production by 62 percent in 2023 compared with 2022.[9] https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ndustrial-base



Ukraine FPV drone reveals Russia has developed new reactive armour to cover tanks with. Is cheap, plentiful and easy to replace.


https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/st...79053031665862

What we see here is the picture from a 500 USD drone with an RPG-7 warhead (another 50 USD). This is all what you need to smash more than a dozen Russians, their gear and their truck. Another Russian meat wave turned to a close to 100% casualty rate. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1746536405201776750

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

Dargo wrote:
"With the ammo "shortages" Ukraine still destroys/damage tanks, artillery and soldiers in double digits it still repels the attacks by the Russian daily maybe that shortage is not that short for some ammo I do not know"

They still need a lot more in order to push Russian back

and they need
Skybird wrote:
" long range missiles for deep interdiction strikes against production and logistics networks inside Russia NOW"

Not to forget many more soldiers is what Ukraine needs mostly.

Markus

[Jimbuna]