Egyptian army sets 48-hour ultimatum

[Oberon]

There's little doubt that what happens in Egypt over the coming days is going to be watched very carefully by the Middle East and Northern Africa alike, being the linchpin between the two.

[Stealhead]

Originally Posted by Oberon

There's little doubt that what happens in Egypt over the coming days is going to be watched very carefully by the Middle East and Northern Africa alike, being the linchpin between the two.

I would say that The United States will also be observing with great interest.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Stealhead

I would say that The United States will also be observing with great interest.

Indeed. Morsi has called the armies bluff, and that puts the army in a very awkward spot.
If they overthrow Morsi then they are technically overthrowing a democratically elected regime, and that's not going to look good on the diplomatic memo to Washington who pays for the army. Furthermore, the longer they hold on to the power that they will receive when they overthrow Morsi, the more the people in the street will turn against them.
However, if they don't act then Morsi will get even more confident and Egypt will fall into complete and utter chaos.

Personally I think the Egyptian army will do the following:
1) At the end of the 48 hour deadline they will unilaterally declare a state of national emergency and set a curfew. This will get the people off the street (in theory).
2) They will meet with Morsi and the opposition and either force an agreement for new elections or the creation of a 'government of national unity' with all of the different factions in Egypt represented on a council. This council is likely to be short lived but it will make the people on the street think that they have achieved something whilst still keeping the Muslim Brotherhoods hand in play. It only has to last long enough for the people to clear the streets and then it can collapse and new elections will probably be held.
3) With the streets clear, Morsi no longer in direct control and the military also not in direct control, the people will be appeased, Washington will be appeased and the Muslim Brotherhood, while annoyed, will also be partially appeased as they will still have some say in the matter.

Obviously there are going to be many who will not be appeased by this, and I dare say that Tahrir Square will be the scene of many many more protests before the year is out, but what the military is desparate to do is to prevent this from spiralling out of control into all out civil war, which some in Egypt (including ex-generals) think that it has the potential to do.
Either way, the long term effect that this will have on Egypts economy will be quite devastating to a nation that is already in pretty bad financial shape, and this is by no means even the beginning of the end of Egypts problems sadly.

[Stealhead]

At any rate the price of bread and other needs will certainly increase which hurts every Egyptian.
Which ever solution that seems to solve that problem will please at least short term will please the populace.
In the end if the majority of a nation gets at least its basic needs things become more or less stable.After all what people are most willing to go
Mau Mau() over is lack of basic needs.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Stealhead

At any rate the price of bread and other needs will certainly increase which hurts every Egyptian which ever solution that seems to solve that problem will please at least short term the populace.

This is a pretty good article from a man who knows the Middle East as well as any westerner can.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23151452

The term 'better the devil you know' comes to mind, something I always consider when you get uprisings.

[Stealhead]

Originally Posted by Oberon

This is a pretty good article from a man who knows the Middle East as well as any westerner can.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23151452

The term 'better the devil you know' comes to mind, something I always consider when you get uprisings.

You're fast I added a little to my post... the mind is slower than the brain.

Will digest the article.

[Red October1984]

I read the book A Soldier's Dream about Captain Travis Patriquin.

If we send troops, we better send people like him. Somebody who knows the culture, language, and religion. Somebody who can talk to the people easily.



I haven't been following this as close as i used to...

[garren]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Indeed. Morsi has called the armies bluff, and that puts the army in a very awkward spot.
If they overthrow Morsi then they are technically overthrowing a democratically elected regime, and that's not going to look good on the diplomatic memo to Washington who pays for the army. Furthermore, the longer they hold on to the power that they will receive when they overthrow Morsi, the more the people in the street will turn against them.
However, if they don't act then Morsi will get even more confident and Egypt will fall into complete and utter chaos.

Personally I think the Egyptian army will do the following:
1) At the end of the 48 hour deadline they will unilaterally declare a state of national emergency and set a curfew. This will get the people off the street (in theory).
2) They will meet with Morsi and the opposition and either force an agreement for new elections or the creation of a 'government of national unity' with all of the different factions in Egypt represented on a council. This council is likely to be short lived but it will make the people on the street think that they have achieved something whilst still keeping the Muslim Brotherhoods hand in play. It only has to last long enough for the people to clear the streets and then it can collapse and new elections will probably be held.
3) With the streets clear, Morsi no longer in direct control and the military also not in direct control, the people will be appeased, Washington will be appeased and the Muslim Brotherhood, while annoyed, will also be partially appeased as they will still have some say in the matter.

Obviously there are going to be many who will not be appeased by this, and I dare say that Tahrir Square will be the scene of many many more protests before the year is out, but what the military is desparate to do is to prevent this from spiralling out of control into all out civil war, which some in Egypt (including ex-generals) think that it has the potential to do.
Either way, the long term effect that this will have on Egypts economy will be quite devastating to a nation that is already in pretty bad financial shape, and this is by no means even the beginning of the end of Egypts problems sadly.

I think they are headed towards a long and bloody civil war no matter what they do until one side clearly dominates all the others so badly that the few that remain will be so badly beaten they will be forced to submit and do as instructed just to not be completely exterminated. And that's what I think should be done. Let them fight it out and may the best side win. I think the time for talk is over for a lot of people.

I know we live in a politically correct world now where everyone is supposed to be hyper-sensitive and care but I don't believe in that girlie nonsense. When I'm bullied, I send teeth down throats. I don't play games or give love taps. I hit and hit with purpose and make my enemy feel pain like he's never felt before and I make him submit and beg for mercy. That's what needs to happen here.

The world is just not big enough and there's going to be war because of it. People just need to get used to that fact. Does it suck? Sure it does. But that's life. Nothing is equal and nothing is fair but it is what it is. Make the best of it and fight for your side to the death if you believe so strongly in something. If you're not willing to die for it then you never really cared enough to begin with. or get off the pot as they say.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Indeed. Morsi has called the armies bluff, and that puts the army in a very awkward spot.
If they overthrow Morsi then they are technically overthrowing a democratically elected regime, and that's not going to look good on the diplomatic memo to Washington who pays for the army. Furthermore, the longer they hold on to the power that they will receive when they overthrow Morsi, the more the people in the street will turn against them.
However, if they don't act then Morsi will get even more confident and Egypt will fall into complete and utter chaos.

Personally I think the Egyptian army will do the following:
1) At the end of the 48 hour deadline they will unilaterally declare a state of national emergency and set a curfew. This will get the people off the street (in theory).
2) They will meet with Morsi and the opposition and either force an agreement for new elections or the creation of a 'government of national unity' with all of the different factions in Egypt represented on a council. This council is likely to be short lived but it will make the people on the street think that they have achieved something whilst still keeping the Muslim Brotherhoods hand in play. It only has to last long enough for the people to clear the streets and then it can collapse and new elections will probably be held.
3) With the streets clear, Morsi no longer in direct control and the military also not in direct control, the people will be appeased, Washington will be appeased and the Muslim Brotherhood, while annoyed, will also be partially appeased as they will still have some say in the matter.

Obviously there are going to be many who will not be appeased by this, and I dare say that Tahrir Square will be the scene of many many more protests before the year is out, but what the military is desparate to do is to prevent this from spiralling out of control into all out civil war, which some in Egypt (including ex-generals) think that it has the potential to do.
Either way, the long term effect that this will have on Egypts economy will be quite devastating to a nation that is already in pretty bad financial shape, and this is by no means even the beginning of the end of Egypts problems sadly.

Not particularly disagreeing with the above because it is certainly a viable possibility but if all the above appeasement becomes reality then I'm voting for you to be the next President of the United Nations

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Not particularly disagreeing with the above because it is certainly a viable possibility but if all the above appeasement becomes reality then I'm voting for you to be the next President of the United Nations

God help us all, or indeed, Allah.

Well, according to a member of the Muslim Brotherhood a 'full military coup' is currently underway in Cairo with 'tanks...moving through the streets'.
Given the vitriol in the latest exchanges between Morsi and the Generals I must admit the chances of appeasement are looking less likely, however I still would not rule out the Generals putting some form of council together although it is possible that they will cut the Muslim Brotherhood out of proceedings altogether...which whilst likely to be popular with the seculist revolutionaries of Egypt it is a rather short sighted move, one cannot give a sect power and then take it away again without creating serious ructions. There is, of course, also the diplomatic fallout of what would be a military coup in all but name. I doubt Washington would be sad to see the back of the MB but equally they cannot speak out in support of the coup because of their support for the democratic system.
We shall see what news the coming hours bring, the BBC has a rolling coverage at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23159066

Watch this space, as they say.

[Jimbuna]

BBC correspondents have reported an increased military presence in the capital and armoured vehicles have been seen moving through the streets.
The army had earlier held meetings with political and religious leaders to discuss the crisis.
But the ruling Freedom and Justice party - the political arm of Mr Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood - stayed away from these talks.

Not looking too good then

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23157801

[Oberon]

APCs moving through the streets near Cairo University.

[HundertzehnGustav]

Originally Posted by Stealhead

I would say that The United States will also be observing with great interest.

the NSA fo` sho`!