Plan A Simulation

Rockstar · 05-16-21, 03:24 PM

Princeton Science and Global Security Nuclear War Simulation

SGS developed a new simulation for a plausible escalating war between the United States and Russia using realistic nuclear force postures, targets and fatality estimates. It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead and injured within the first few hours of the conflict.

https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a

mapuc · 05-16-21, 04:07 PM

Let us hope there will not be a war between these two country or between countries who have nukes.

If there should be a war I hope no one will open the Pandora box.

(This video have been posted before)

Markus

Moonlight · 05-16-21, 04:50 PM

What a load of bleeding rubbish, I don't know who came up with that crap scenario but I can assure you that its going to be mass destruction all over the planet.
At least 300+ nuclear missiles flying about, the fallout would affect billions and it would affect every continent of the planet as well, now which superpower leader is thick enough to release Armageddon on the world.

Rockstar · 05-16-21, 05:33 PM

Certain people blamed a certain country for using a chemical wmd to poison someone. It was purported that only that certain country manfactured the substance. Therefore it had to be them.

Look how many here willingly swallowed that pill!

What happens when someone plants a nuke downtown? How far will some go to blame another who may not have had anything to do with it and end up starting Plan A?

mapuc · 05-16-21, 06:00 PM

Please remember the video show a plausible scenario.

There are many scenarios where nuke have the leading role

It is theory no one can say how it would start...only thing is certain someone has to press the button.

And how it would end..maybe after having exchange 10-20 each the leaders come to the senses at order ceasefire.

Only hope is that this NEVER happens.

Markus

Skybird · 05-16-21, 07:15 PM

It never made sense to me to assume a nuclear war between the US and the USSR would have escalated in increasingly intense phases. Why would you sacrifice your conventional forces first, and not before they are already lethally wound up you take the other side out by nukes? If the USSR and the US would have gone for each other's throat, the escalation would have been at the very beginning: decapacitating with the aim to mutilate the other'S military capabilities, airfields, nuclear silos, C3I, from the very start on. The Russians would not have invaded Europe conventionally first - why would they have wanted it that way...? They knew that they would have crushed NATO so seriously by their superior numbers that NATO would have had no other chance than to fall back to the nuclear option (thats why NATO formulated its nuclear doctrine and reserved the right to use nukes first - because it expected to not being able to stop the Sovjets conventionally). Why would the Sovjets have wanted to wait for that...? "Let us poke pencils into NATO's eyes until we got them so furious that they strike us with nukies, and when they do then we retaliate!" That does not just sound stupid - that is stupid.

They would have sent waves of nukes first - and if surviving that, THEN would have sent the conventional troops. I even imagine it possible that there never would have been a conventional follow-on invasion. There is no reward in taking that risk after you had turned the loot of your conquest into radiating rubble, with living cadavers crawling in the ruins. What would be the gain? The Sovjest were no religious fanatics fantasizing about fulfilling divine intentions, they believed in a scientific rational, even in war, also regarding social systems. Divinity had no place in that.

Sean C · 05-17-21, 04:17 AM

I don't think our end will be nuclear war. Call me a hopeless optimist, but I think we'll go out with a whimper - not a bang.

There are some crazy people on this planet. And some of those people have a lot of power. But not all the power. And those that are close to having all the power don't want to lose it.

People like Kim Jong Un know that if they push that button, everything they have ever known will be erased. Along with their legacy. And Jong Un's generals know that, too. Besides, they're probably too scared their own missile will fall short and kill them. I would be.

China ... pffft. We're their cash cow.

Putin isn't a dumbass. And I think [hope] some people in Iran still remember being the most progressive middle-eastern country ever. Pakistan ... is kind of crazy, but not that crazy IMHO. Same goes for India.

There is one group that I think might be crazy enough to do it.

Jimbuna · 05-17-21, 06:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sean C

There is one group that I think might be crazy enough to do it.

Then please enlighten us

mapuc · 05-17-21, 09:45 AM

When I read your threads it happens often that I get a Deja vu even in this case.

I recall many of these documentary and news program from the 80's where Reagan was President and Minuteman was being placed in Europe, mostly in Germany while the Russian SS20 was placed in Poland, East Germany a.s.o

From this I remember what these Military people and politicians said.

There was a disagreement on when and how nuke would be used in a war between Soviet/Russia and NATO/USA.

They agree on the other hand about whether nuke would be used or not.

Every Russian officer, politicians, every American officer and politicians and European ditto agreed on nuke would be used in a war.

So let us hope this stay as a theory forever.

Markus

Skybird · 05-17-21, 10:04 AM

No Minuteman 2 or 3 in Europe.

Those were ICBMs and they had their own fixed silos. The short range missiles the US stationed in Germany after Helmut Schmidt (!) bitterly fought for them (originally the Americans did not want to station them), were Pershing-2s and the first generation of Cruise Missiles. That it were the German government wanting them and the Americans not so much, is a story from history that many do not know. But it is true. I just say so, because it may still make some eyebrows rising. Different to the Sovjet- and GDR-infiltrated German peace movement and the hesitating US government of his time, Schmidt, world war 2 veteran that he was, had no cozy illusions about how the game had to be played.

The Minuteman is still in service, I think.

Schmidt again showed what a tough dog he could be during the plane hostage taking of Mogadishu. No deal with hostage takers, was his motto form day one on. (In these regards nobody was well-advised to underestimate him. He had his own experience during the third Reich as a teaher, and he learned the lessons well).

Sean C · 05-17-21, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Then please enlighten us

Religious fanatics.

Jimbuna · 05-18-21, 06:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

The Minuteman is still in service, I think.

As of 2021, the LGM-30G Minuteman III version is the only land-based ICBM in service in the United States and represents the land leg of the U.S. nuclear triad, along with the Trident submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and nuclear weapons carried by long-range strategic bombers.

05-16-21, 03:24 PM	#1
Rockstar In the Brig Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 12,614 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Plan A Simulation Princeton Science and Global Security Nuclear War Simulation SGS developed a new simulation for a plausible escalating war between the United States and Russia using realistic nuclear force postures, targets and fatality estimates. It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead and injured within the first few hours of the conflict. https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a

05-16-21, 04:07 PM	#2
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,535 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	Let us hope there will not be a war between these two country or between countries who have nukes. If there should be a war I hope no one will open the Pandora box. (This video have been posted before) Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat

05-16-21, 04:50 PM	#3
Moonlight Ocean Warrior Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Fookhall Copse Posts: 2,518 Downloads: 184 Uploads: 0	What a load of bleeding rubbish, I don't know who came up with that crap scenario but I can assure you that its going to be mass destruction all over the planet. At least 300+ nuclear missiles flying about, the fallout would affect billions and it would affect every continent of the planet as well, now which superpower leader is thick enough to release Armageddon on the world. __________________

05-16-21, 06:00 PM	#5
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,535 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	Please remember the video show a plausible scenario. There are many scenarios where nuke have the leading role It is theory no one can say how it would start...only thing is certain someone has to press the button. And how it would end..maybe after having exchange 10-20 each the leaders come to the senses at order ceasefire. Only hope is that this NEVER happens. Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat

05-16-21, 07:15 PM	#6
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,604 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	It never made sense to me to assume a nuclear war between the US and the USSR would have escalated in increasingly intense phases. Why would you sacrifice your conventional forces first, and not before they are already lethally wound up you take the other side out by nukes? If the USSR and the US would have gone for each other's throat, the escalation would have been at the very beginning: decapacitating with the aim to mutilate the other'S military capabilities, airfields, nuclear silos, C3I, from the very start on. The Russians would not have invaded Europe conventionally first - why would they have wanted it that way...? They knew that they would have crushed NATO so seriously by their superior numbers that NATO would have had no other chance than to fall back to the nuclear option (thats why NATO formulated its nuclear doctrine and reserved the right to use nukes first - because it expected to not being able to stop the Sovjets conventionally). Why would the Sovjets have wanted to wait for that...? "Let us poke pencils into NATO's eyes until we got them so furious that they strike us with nukies, and when they do then we retaliate!" That does not just sound stupid - that is stupid. They would have sent waves of nukes first - and if surviving that, THEN would have sent the conventional troops. I even imagine it possible that there never would have been a conventional follow-on invasion. There is no reward in taking that risk after you had turned the loot of your conquest into radiating rubble, with living cadavers crawling in the ruins. What would be the gain? The Sovjest were no religious fanatics fantasizing about fulfilling divine intentions, they believed in a scientific rational, even in war, also regarding social systems. Divinity had no place in that. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

05-16-21, 05:33 PM	#4
Rockstar In the Brig Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 12,614 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Certain people blamed a certain country for using a chemical wmd to poison someone. It was purported that only that certain country manfactured the substance. Therefore it had to be them. Look how many here willingly swallowed that pill! What happens when someone plants a nuke downtown? How far will some go to blame another who may not have had anything to do with it and end up starting Plan A?

05-17-21, 04:17 AM	#7
Sean C Grey Wolf Join Date: Jun 2017 Location: Norfolk, VA Posts: 984 Downloads: 16 Uploads: 2	I don't think our end will be nuclear war. Call me a hopeless optimist, but I think we'll go out with a whimper - not a bang. There are some crazy people on this planet. And some of those people have a lot of power. But not all the power. And those that are close to having all the power don't want to lose it. People like Kim Jong Un know that if they push that button, everything they have ever known will be erased. Along with their legacy. And Jong Un's generals know that, too. Besides, they're probably too scared their own missile will fall short and kill them. I would be. China ... pffft. We're their cash cow. Putin isn't a dumbass. And I think [hope] some people in Iran still remember being the most progressive middle-eastern country ever. Pakistan ... is kind of crazy, but not that crazy IMHO. Same goes for India. There is one group that I think might be crazy enough to do it. __________________ If you have a question about celestial navigation ... ask me! Celestial Navigation Spreadsheet

05-17-21, 09:45 AM	#9
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,535 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	When I read your threads it happens often that I get a Deja vu even in this case. I recall many of these documentary and news program from the 80's where Reagan was President and Minuteman was being placed in Europe, mostly in Germany while the Russian SS20 was placed in Poland, East Germany a.s.o From this I remember what these Military people and politicians said. There was a disagreement on when and how nuke would be used in a war between Soviet/Russia and NATO/USA. They agree on the other hand about whether nuke would be used or not. Every Russian officer, politicians, every American officer and politicians and European ditto agreed on nuke would be used in a war. So let us hope this stay as a theory forever. Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat

05-17-21, 10:04 AM	#10
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,604 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	No Minuteman 2 or 3 in Europe. Those were ICBMs and they had their own fixed silos. The short range missiles the US stationed in Germany after Helmut Schmidt (!) bitterly fought for them (originally the Americans did not want to station them), were Pershing-2s and the first generation of Cruise Missiles. That it were the German government wanting them and the Americans not so much, is a story from history that many do not know. But it is true. I just say so, because it may still make some eyebrows rising. Different to the Sovjet- and GDR-infiltrated German peace movement and the hesitating US government of his time, Schmidt, world war 2 veteran that he was, had no cozy illusions about how the game had to be played. The Minuteman is still in service, I think. Schmidt again showed what a tough dog he could be during the plane hostage taking of Mogadishu. No deal with hostage takers, was his motto form day one on. (In these regards nobody was well-advised to underestimate him. He had his own experience during the third Reich as a teaher, and he learned the lessons well). __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 05-17-21 at 10:13 AM.