Quote:
Originally Posted by Oberon
but it's certainly going to spark off the 'Russian/Soviet bogeyman' hype again, like we had in Georgia.
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And that's what it was: a bogeyman hype because the West fell for the real provocateur in Georgia who lied to and betrayed the West in order to make NATO starting a war on Georgia's behalf. As I said to Jim already: Georgia and Ukraine do not compare at all. It starts already with that the Georgian bad ape was hostile to Russia, while the Ukrainian one is pro Russia. The majority of Georgians seem to have been against Russia, but whether there is a true numerical majority in the Ukraine against Russia, imo is at least in doubt.
As far as Kerry and Obama are concerned, if they do not want to make jokes of themselves once again, after the ME debacles of recent years and the show of weakness and hesitation and wishy-washy manouvering, they better watch their mouths a little bit. The US has more serious and vital problems on its mind, one would assume. Same is to be said about the EU. This is the Ukrainian people needing to find their way and make their choices. For the EU, the Ukraine has merely narcissistic value. Strategically we would be better off to stay out of it and have it not joining the EU. We have troubles enough already, internally, fiscally, demographically, economically. The EU is way too big already, hopelessly overstretched and distanced from reality. To have a big cause for future anger and confrontation with Russia over the Ukraine is not in Europe's interest. For Russia, the vital stakes are much higher in this, than for the EU. And last but not least: gas. Mind you: the Ukraine does not produce the gas that goes to Europe via its pipes: it just is a transfer country, but the gas comes from Russia. And the Ukrainian pipes already are bypassed to some degree.
The worst the West could do is to react by some ancient cold war reflexes. That Putin maybe will do that, must not serve as our motivation to copy it. Sober cost-effect calculation is on order. The result, as I see it, is that we have little stakes in this that are not high enough to justify our costs if we get engaged too far.