Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird
I lost track of what the status is regarding the Russian navy basis and the Blacksea fleet in Sewastopol? Is it a shared command between Ukraine and Russia, or how did the row end that they had a couple of years ago. Access there is something that Russia must consider as a vital interest, more so than a navy base in Syria. I doubt they will sit idly by if political change in Ukraine threatens that by the country turning to the EU. In that case I not only think it is possible but likely that the Russian will react possibly even militarily with a joined intervention. EU megalomania can really cause very nasty results here. This is not Poland.
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I believe that after Russia threatened to turn the gas off they signed a treaty extending Russias ownership of the naval base until 2042, it was so popular in the Ukraine that a fight broke out in their parliament.
I have a niggling suspicion in the back of my mind that should it all go south in the Ukraine, Russia will very likely intervene.
The US and EU are already mumbling about sanctions, Lavrov (Russias foreign minister) has already told Kerry to butt out, but I can't see that happening, and if Russia does go in, I could see it spiralling out of control into a small civil war in the Ukraine which would not be a pretty sight.
Either which way, I don't see the EU or US being drawn into any kind of military operation, like you say this is not Poland, but it's certainly going to spark off the 'Russian/Soviet bogeyman' hype again, like we had in Georgia.