[Molon Labe]

30 April 1942

Japan
USS Trout got into a gunfight with a light cargo ship in the Korea-Japan gap. The ship was set alight by multiple 3" and even .50cal hits, but getting close enough to use ma deuce meant it could hit back, so the Trout took some damage as well.

Sumatra
Oosthaven got shelled again, and then swept. We got 2 fighters up against the sweep and lost both.

Timor
In a rare sub v sub surface encounter, the O-24 torpedoed and sank a small Japanese sub. This is probably the 3rd such encounter of the war, but I believe it's the first to result in a torpedo hit.

Thailand
They attempted a sweep at Tavoy, we broke even at one fighter apiece. The force of 10,000 has caught up with my troops. I think I have the slightly stronger force; roughly even numbers of troops and artillery, but I have more tanks. I'm not going to order an attack, I'll let them try to hit me and hopefully get some kills thanks to the terrain defensive bonus.

Philippines
At long last, an enemy army is moving against my final base, Cagayan. These guys have been cut off since forever and have been getting bombed daily. They're going to fold like a cheap table when the enemy arrives.

Java
The enemy siezed several coastal islands with paratroops as mopup operations on the mainland continue.

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Strategic Outlook:

We're still in no shape to take on the KB directly, part of that is due to the numbers--effectively 5 on 2 right now thanks to the Lex and Saratoga both being down for repairs/upgrades. But as long as he feels compelled to make Alfred Mayhan roll in his grave by dividing his fleet carriers, I'll be looking for opportunities to defeat a smaller group in detail.

Setting aside Pearl, his campaigns in most areas are behind historical schedule (the Phillipines being the major exception):

Philippines: Historically, resistance ended April 9, with Corregidor mopped up by May 6. In this campaign, Bataan was taken on February 9 in this campaign.

Malaya: Singapore historically fell February 15. Here, we hold Singapore. We will be able to continue to hold Singapore until Sumatra falls.

Borneo: Historically, Balikpapan fell on January 24th. In this campaign, he got it on 15 February here.

Java: Historically fell March 8. In this campaign, April 25.

Sumatra: Historically 28 March. Here, the campaign is just beginning.

Burma: Historically, invaded December 1941; here I've invaded Thailand from Burma instead.

So, overall I think I'm doing OK. My biggest problem at the moment is that he's going to knock over most of Sumatra like it's nothing. Palembang itself will be a hard nut to crack, but once Palembang is isolated, it's going to become difficult to keep Singapore supplied and they're going to be in the same ticking-clock situation that Pearl is in. My best bet to change that situation is probably to re-invade Malaya from the north and start taking back airfields. But, with 2 enemy divisions deployed to Bangkok stalling my advance, and with my air forces suffering significant attrition, it's going to take a lot of reinforcements to get that moving again. Japan, on the other hand, seems to be suffering their losses with a smile and pressing on.

Of note, the Brits are now up to 3 carriers in theatre, which means if I had sufficient land and land-based air forces available, an amphibious operation bypassing Bangkok might just be possible. I might be able to scrounge up some armies in India, but fighters I just don't have right now. Without fighters to protect the supply ships I'd be bringing in to save Singapore (and sustain my armies), there's not much point.

I reviewed the Japan Economy Guide, and according to it, Japan starts with enough fuel to last 200 days--just for their economy, ship deployments are extra. They've also got a year's worth of oil to send to their own refineries, so after their stockpiles are depleted they can still produce fuel, just not nearly enough to sustain themselves. So that means they're probably going to be in dire straits before the end of June--but again, that doesn't account for ship deployments.

So far, he's seized small-ish oil/fuel centers in northern and eastern Borneo. (And soon, Surabaya will be producing for him as well, he just needs to clear out the defensive minefield.) I've been mining these ports pretty frequently, blockading them with subs, and even hitting convoys headed there with air attacks. That said, I know there are some tankers getting through. I can't really quantify it. He's also been refueling some of his fleets from these bases directly during high OPTEMPO, so a good chunk of his fuel costs aren't coming out of Japan's stores. And he'll be able to continue to operate in the Java Sea area using "my" fuel instead of Japan's.

Final conclusion on the fuel situation: He has to be under pressure. I don't know when it's going to become critical, but he's going to need to take Palembang and establish a safe convoy route at some point. Hopefully that pressure makes him take some bad gambles.