I am a bit 50 50 on this and heres why:
The German navy starves the UK into submission by destroying the ships on the atlantic, this means Germany will have free reign pretty much in the Atlantic with submarines.
Germany defeats Russia and is able to tap the Russian tank factory which can produce as many T34 and T36 as the Americans can with Shermans giving them almost a 1 to 1 parity, on top of that they continue producing the tiger and panzers giving them a slight numerical superiority.
The Baltic sea becomes a German lake and Sweden being rich in iron ore and other minerals is now exclusivly exporting to German with impunity from attack from the UK and Russia.
In order to effect a landing on the Atlantic side the United states would have to wrestle back control of the Atlantic, now had this happened prior to December 1941 that Germany defeats the UK that would be the hardest part yet.
The UK has a top secret program called Tube alloys based in Wales had the scientists and material not been transfered to the USA and Canada the atomic bomb project would likely have not happened thus Japan may have continued the fight, had the Germans Defeated the UK it would leave them free to asssist the Japanese in a lot of key areas, while Germany had no carriers they did have some ships and no doubt would have requestitioned any ship or aircraft the british left behind.
With Russia now in the pocket of German the logistics chain between Japan and Germany would be tiny in comparision to the USA plus with Russia being one of the Major oil producing countries and rich in natural gas as well as other much needed minerals Japan could have continued without having to run the gauntlet of USN Submarines.
The Key area to defeat the USN would have been in the Pacific islands midway and Hawaii because now your forcing the Americans to operate either from Australia or their own west coast line, this means predictability, technically you could cycle many submarines in and out of the areas effectively blockading them in port and the Germans would have had plenty of spare boats had the atlantic been secured.
As for total defeat of America via invasion i would say no this is because any amphibious landings on the mainland would have been met with total unity from the American and Canadian people i couldnt see it being sucessful.
What i could see is a negotiated peace where Australia and New zealand would be free but the rest would be Japanese control, while much of Europe would ceed to Germany (likely including control of british empire territories), Italy would control the Med and most of north africa and some of the middle east.
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