Quote:
Originally Posted by mapuc
It is an interesting thoughts Reece came up with
Lets play a made-up war game scenarios.
Year
2022
Month
June
Day 11
Time
0600 local time.
A massive Chinese armada consisting of a huge air fleet and ships is heading towards Taiwan
China has decided to invade Taiwan.
What kind of response can we expect from Taiwan-USA-Japan ?
Will the war extend to other countries Like Australia and South Korea ?
Will North Korea see a change to do something not so clever now if SK is fighting China ?
Markus
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I would expect a massive cyber offensive first to cause confusion, disruption, sensor and intel blindess, damage, short: messing of C3I infrastructure and bringing down civil production and traffic, causing panic, reducing reaction times. Then a systematic attempt to isolate the air space around the island so that no supplies and reinforcements could get in, combined with the effort to keep the US carriers at long distance so that they cannot strike so easily. Extensive ASW operations as well. Maybe even attack them directly. I think they have the capability to kill them - if they manage to pinpoint their location. Just then I expect an intensification of the missile bombardement of the island, both industrial and military targets, and an armada of amphibious units and troop carriers crossing the strait. Probably also intense infiltration via special commands, for sabotaging, and collecting intel, many days ahead.
Some of what will happen, maybe will remind of what we have seen on the Crimean, and the Russian-Georgian war. The Russian tricks to spread confusion and keep the world wondering instea d of reacting, was extremely successful.
For the US, the risks of high losses are very immense, so nare the risks for the Chiense. But by their state setup and mentality they are better prepared to digest them. The US will be given hell at home.
I put my money on China. The open question only is at what price (losses) they will get their will. But they will get it.
The only thing that leaves doubt sin me is that China has a similiarly low war index as the US or the West. Party rule and totalitarianism and proaganda is all nice and well, still the society in China, its age structure, is atypical for an expansive aggressive political course. In 2017, China ha da war index of 0.99, the US of 0.96.
click:
I do not expect too much from Japan and Soutgh Korea, by numbers their possibilities simply are too limited.
As the US, i would do all what militarily could be done to widen the combat zone from Taiwan to all the coastal industrial centres and metropoles of the Chinese homeland. Why helping in the destruction of Taiwan by fighting there, instead of carrying the destruction to the attacker and making him bleed on his own land? If China does not pay the price, its pointless to fight it. This forces China to spread its forces to protect all its coast, instead of amassing its power at and around Taiwan, gaining absolute superiority there. Stealth, and long range missiles will play a dominant role. Go for the industry, the economy, the energy production, dams, nuclear powerplants, everything. Soft targets. And by that, maximising the pain for China and the price it has to pay. The public mujst feel that this war is not just some distant patriotic show event, but bites them into their noses right in their own private lives.
Both sides will desperately run extensive ASW operations. Numbers again are against the Americans.
IMO key would be to inflict and maximise punishing damages and losses on the Chinese - but not in the battle for Taiwan directly (which would only accumalate collateral damage to Taiwan), but everywhere
in China where the distance allows it. China is a highly developed and industrialised country in certain coastal regions: these translate into juicy, target rich areas, and I would hit there with all power I have, and repeatingly, as hard as possible. It may also help to minimise own losses. Force preserverance is of the essence, if you are as low in numbers and ammo, as the West and the US today is.
Focussing on a military and defensive fighting at Taiwan, imo has absolutely no chance to win, but is a guarantee for desaster. This war shall at no cost be played according to the Chinese rule book. Their rules must be avoided, at all costs. One needs to get out of their screenplay, and immediately.
This way ^, it will be a very bloody mess, outstandingly so. And I am not certain that American leaders have what it takes to turn into the kind of monsters that are needed to order for a fight that could win that war. Global trade will take a dive. And Alaska and the US West Coast are open for retaliation. So are shipping lanes and trade line bottle necks around the globe. The Chinese constantly work on getting a globally operational navy, and widen the network of support bases around all continents.
More ammo stocks in stealthed missiles and cruise missiles. More submarines. More surface platforms. More planes and/or drones. More cyberwar competences. High Tech compensates low own numbers to a certain degree, but not beyond. And Chinese hits at the West Coast must be expected if America plays outside the Chinese rule book and turns the war into something nasty. If America doe snto do this, it better does not even start playing.
Honestly said, I do not only doubt the US would risk a full war with China over Taiwan - I even recommend not to do it. Preserve the forces to protect your Western flank, and live some years longer as a slowly farewelling global superpower, while the Chinese rise and overtake you anyway in this century. What's in for you in Taiwan? Only losses, no gains.
Maybe the lonely single German frigate that is being send now, could improve the situation.
