[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/31/a...-ml/index.html

if China tries to take Taiwan, are the United States and its allies able to stop it?And the alarming answer is: Quite possibly not. Analysts say China has more troops, more missiles and more ships than Taiwan or its possible supporters, like the US or Japan, could bring to a fight. That means that if China is absolutely determined to take the island it probably can.


But there's a caveat; while China could likely prevail, any victory would come at an extremely bloody price for both Beijing and its adversaries.

Many analysts say an invasion of Taiwan would be more dangerous and complex than the Allied D-Day landings in France in World War II. US government documents put the number of killed, injured and missing from both sides during the almost three-month-long Normandy campaign at almost half a million troops.And the civilian carnage could be far, far worse.
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Despite its numerical advantages in sea-, air- and land-based forces in the region, China has Achilles heels in each arena of war that would force Beijing to think long and hard about whether an invasion is worth the overwhelming human cost.
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In a quarantine scenario, the Chinese government would effectively take control of the air and sea borders of Taiwan," they wrote. "The Chinese government would run effectively a clearance operation offshore or in the air to screen incoming ships and aircraft. The screeners could then wave along what they regarded as innocent traffic."Anything regarded as belligerent, such as US military aid for Taiwan, could be blocked or confiscated as a violation of Chinese sovereignty, they say. Meanwhile, China could allow the Taiwan government to function as normal except for foreign affairs.

This option would have an advantage in China's eyes: the ball would be in the US' court as to whether to use force to end the quarantine. Then it would be the US that would have to consider whether to risk a war that could cost countless lives.