[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I hope this man is right and I am wrong. It would be better for the cause.



https://www.nzz.ch/feuilleton/marcus...&_x_tr_sl=auto

Originally Posted by Marcus Keupp

Marcus Keupp uses a tank calculation to explain how he came to the conclusion that the war was decided in October. In an interview with the "NZZ" he talks about estimates by western military analysts. Accordingly, at the beginning of the war, Russia had 2,900 deployable main battle tanks. He offsets these against estimates from the Oryx collective . This uses visual evidence to estimate the casualties suffered by Russians and Ukrainians in the war. "Here we are today at 1845 tanks that Russia lost - so about 5 per day of the war," Keupp explains. "The remaining reserve of 1055 pieces is enough for a maximum of 211 days of the war." The end of October is in 211 days - if Keupp's calculation comes true, Russia will finally run out of tanks in October. And in his opinion, the calculation is “still conservative”, the military economist explains to the “NZZ”. As soon as Western tanks arrive at the battlefield and the Russian army has to resort to older models at the same time, the technological advantage is likely to increase the casualties of the invaders, according to Keupp.

Russia was capable of producing about 100 battle tanks per year before the war - but under better economic conditions. However, at the current attrition rate of five tanks per fighting day, they would have to produce 1,500 tanks per year to compensate for attrition alone. Moreover, Western battle tanks will soon appear on the battlefields - this will once again fundamentally change the situation in Ukraine's favor. Western battle tanks can shoot down Russian ones from a distance. With this combat power, the Ukrainians will split the Russian front. Then it will be quite dramatic for the Russian troops, because the Ukrainian army will systematically attack their supplies. Wars are not decided by major battles, but by reserves and logistics. How can I ensure the best possible long-term supply of my troops? That is the all-important question. Russia's army is pretty bare, there is nothing left to take. The border with Finland, Kaliningrad, even the Far East has been stripped bare: everything Russia has in the way of operational material is in Ukraine. There will be a point where the front simply collapses, as it once did in the First World War.

Russia is a large Potemkin village that has been able to successfully fool the West into believing that it is strong and powerful. Anyone who has ever looked at the country outside the glittering metropolises of Moscow and St. Petersburg got an idea of this. But few Western politicians have ever gone there.

The revolution of 1917 began because the Russian soldier mostly came of regions outside Russia itself, treated like untermench they wanted to go home to support their families because they starved to work the land to survive. if you talk to Russian outside Russia you learn they know they are being used this was also before this war they never had any hope that Moscow will ever help them they know they are the ones that make Russia rich without they will ever get it better. there comes a time they gone walk home and Putin can not stop this he has not the power or force to stop them.