Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfish
I have no idea how many "followers" Nadalny has, also i do not know whether he was the head of the 65,000 protesters in the march demonstration 2017, when a thousand or so were arrested. I am also not sure whether his nationalist leaning would be good for Russia, or if he just does that to amass more people against Putin or "the corruption".
I do not see any other independent candidate. Medvedvev? Lol. I just saw a video where Medvedvev and Putin were practicing in a gym, before having breakfast together.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...navalny-400063 |
The irony is that this was a short term move to generate money. Back in 2017 he misinformed his base and provoked them to protest at the wrong location etc. Then after the useful idiots got arrested he pocketed donations send to fund their legal representation.
Medvedev (like Navalny) is indeed a member of the same patronage networks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimbuna
Vladimir Putin set out a clear path to Russian military action in Belarus for the first time on Thursday, announcing that he had agreed to assemble a “law enforcement reserve” at the request of the country’s embattled autocrat Alexander Lukashenko.
Such forces, used only if the situation went “out of control”, would be provided under the terms of a joint security treaty, Mr Putin said.
https://www.independent.co.uk/indepe...-a9692116.html |
This is not military action, this is potential police support. Military support (ie under CSTO) has been specifically denied, the same way it was denied to Kurgyzia a while ago. Unless Belorussia comes under a credible external military threat (and Lukashenko is trying to present the situation as such very hard) they are not getting military help via CSTO.
What did happen recently was a series of nuclear posturing/signalling moves, such as the strategic bomber exercise, first joint Iskander-12th GUMO exercise (the later handles nuclear weapons) and so on, the standard re-assurance of allies stuff.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Catfish
Well one of those commandos seems to have failed:
Ukrainian intelligence lured suspected Russian mercenaries to Belarus, journalists report
But you are right it is the usual russian procedure already witnessed in Ukraine, maybe the russian maoeuvres near Alaska want to divert the US from what is going on with Russia and Belarus? 
With the conditions in the US Russia has it exactly where it wants it. Maybe just trying out what is possible.. Putin has won his gambling before. |
The difference between Belorussia and Ukraine is that there is no real anti-Russian drive so far in the mainstream opposition. Using hard military force would change this, hence why in Belorussia we are likely to act as a mediator of power transition, like we did in Armenia (another Russian CSTO ally).