Russia's spring offensive is all but stalled. Attacks have not stopped, but the Russian army is hardly making any more progress in eastern Ukraine. Many military analyses speak of a culminating offensive. That is military jargon for an attack that has passed its peak, explains Peter Wijninga. The former colonel is attached to The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies: "The offensive is going to end like a candle."
Han Bouwmeester nuances this picture. According to the brigadier general and professor of military operational sciences, the Russian offensive never peaked and therefore cannot culminate. According to him, the attacks have "lost their momentum". The Russian attacks have failed, he thinks, because "there was no surprise, they never gained speed and all creativity was missing. Always the same frontal attacks."
Former Colonel Wijninga explains the jamming largely from the organization of the Russian army: "Poor coordination and poor management. It is far too hierarchical. For every problem, they have to call Moscow, so to speak. The Ukrainians are much more flexible, their decision-making is faster. There is much more responsibility at the low level, so they are more creative." The Ukrainians' information position would also be much better. "Because of all the help they get from the West, they see exactly what is happening on the battlefield, while the Russians are often behind."
Wijninga "does not want to be too adamant". Bouwmeester also warns that the attacks have not yet stopped. "Russian troops are still being moved and replaced. They haven't given up yet. But the question is how to proceed," said the HCSS analyst. Ten thousand troops have recently been trained in Belarus. How many of them have already been deployed is unclear. Some are probably already fighting in Luhansk province. These troops are better than the untrained mercenaries of the Wagner army, which tried to take Bakhmut, though. They have since been relieved by elite troops, but they are not successful either. Another sign that the Russian offensive has failed are the rumors surrounding the general staff. Another round of resignations is said to be imminent. It is likely that two sub-commanders will have to leave the field. "Because of the failures," states Wijninga.
The gigantic losses near Voelhedar are heavily blamed on local commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov. His days would therefore be numbered, assumes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US think tank. The ISW notes that critics of the Russian military are always more interested in punishment than in solving the problems facing the army.
Those Russian critics, the military bloggers, are also skeptical about the plan to station nuclear weapons in Belarus. President Putin announced that last weekend. He would do so at the request of the Belarusian president. Russian bloggers note that those nuclear weapons will not change anything about the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine. The nuclear weapons for Belarus are seen mainly as a signal to the West. Putin is said to want to instill fear so that the West stops supplying weapons. Bouwmeester says the deployment of the nuclear weapons is not so simple, either. "There is no suitable storage in Belarus," he says. Wijninga believes "in all cases there is symbol politics. Putin is also trying to appease his critical supporters in this way".
Putin has ordered his generals to control the entire Donbas region by 1 April. "That will not succeed anyway," Wijninga knows. The northern part of this region, Luhansk province, is almost entirely Russian. But the southern province of Donetsk is still one-third in Ukrainian hands. Missing the deadline is unlikely to affect Russian army commander-in-chief Valery Gerasimov. Meanwhile, the centre of gravity of the Russian effort has shifted somewhat to the south, from Bakhmut to Avdiivka. That is an attempt to encircle the rest of Donetsk province. A tank regiment, just trained in Belarus, is said to have lost much of all its tanks there. As a result of "frontal attacks", the British Ministry of Defense reported in its daily briefing. And so the Russian failures continue to string together for now.
https://nos.nl/artikel/2469250-russi...en-zich-aaneen
The picture shows the state of this war, the failure of Putin and his gang of criminals.