[Skybird]

Its a war of attrition, Russia forced it splay onto Ukraine, long tiem ago already, this way eroding reserves needed for forming new brigades, and take the remaining Western tanks and IFVs out of play. Quality of troops counts less, quantity of ressources counters decisively.



Since the fall of Avdiivka they have in parts advanced 20 km. They are threatening to gain an operational breakthrough.



Recent attacks of Ukraine of Crimea were meant to make headlines. Tactically they mean almost nothing if Ukraine has no troops in Crimea to push and gain relevant territory in the wake of the ATCAMS - of which it now has accordingly less already. Its not known how many the US provided, but the reserves are definitely limited for sure.



The ATACMS were needed one year ago. As always: too late, too few.



Russia has another 60km beforte it to reahc the district borders of Donbass and Luhansk and bring there territories under its control. While Putin seeks this triumpf for symbolicn reasons ove rthe May 9th festivities, do not get mislead. Its not vital for Russia to gain any further terrritory to win. It could in principle opt for just sitting where it now is and from this status quo continue to bomb Ukraione into poieces, day for day, night for night, until nothing essential is left anymore. That Putin does not do this but instead wastes troops for pushing forward shows no desperation but that he is extremely confident - enough so to think he can afford it.



Ukraine looses more and more bridges, power reserves and production capacity every day and night, and slowly reduces Ukraine's very limited reserves slowly, but constantly. Who is boiling a frog now...?

The only way to avoid the deadly outcome of this is to rush in material and reseves in quantities currently not imaginable and Ukraine mobilizing and readying a mass of new troops, so to enable Ukraine to break out of the Russian anaconda's embrace and counter attack decisively and cut the head off the body, so to speak. But I see no potential for building and arming forces needed for such an Ukrainian offensive. l not this years, and not next year. With what would they do that...?


I think Ukraine can only hope to survive this struggle through decisive mistakes made by the Russians. But these are not the Russians of two years ago anymore. They learned an awesome lot and now are superior.