[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


It cannot be overlooked that the Chinese leadership simulated an attack on Taiwan with its large-scale military maneuvers in the air, at sea and in cyberspace. The exercise of encircling the breakaway island had been prepared for a long time and was well organized, attracting worldwide attention. The question is what Xi Jinping intended by this beyond testing military capabilities with both domestic and international audiences.

The extent of the warnings and intimidation issued by Beijing in the run-up to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which had been announced since the spring, was unprecedented in the history of Chinese diplomacy. Nevertheless, Pelosi was not impressed and completed her visit with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. This came just three months before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, undoubtedly tarnishing Xi Jinping's image as his country's "great leader."

There is a lot at stake for Xi Jinping as he seeks to be elected leader for a longer period at the congress in the Great Hall of the People. For one thing, he must fear for his reputation within the party. Criticism of his policies was circulating internally even before Pelosi's visit, both in foreign policy and in economic policy. Now the flying visit by the high-ranking American threatens to torpedo his plan for a third term as party leader.

Second, he must withstand the harsh judgment of the many "patriotic" Chinese. After decades of brainwashing, the majority of mainland Chinese, especially the younger generation, are accustomed to taking a radical stance, at least verbally, toward Taiwan's "independence drive."

Thanks to intensified military exercises as well as some economic measures to "punish" Taiwan and the United States, Xi Jinping has apparently succeeded in consolidating his position. At least internally, he can claim to have given a "timely and strong response" to the "provocation" of Pelosi and the Taiwanese government. However, this does not change the fact that his foreign policy and economic track record is poor. With his invasion of Ukraine, best friend Vladimir Putin has become a problem case, and the zero-covide policy, with its associated disruptions, has caused the Chinese economic engine to stutter badly.

Furthermore, the war games over Taiwan were aimed at signaling to the Taiwanese government that Beijing, not Washington, is master of the Taiwan Strait and that America is incapable of effectively protecting the island nation militarily. Indeed, the military exercise appears to prove that China's People's Liberation Army is quite capable of controlling access to the island and imposing a comprehensive blockade. Since the 2015 military reform, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) considers itself capable of conducting integrated operations and forcing reunification by force.

Beijing has also been able to express its anger unimpeded because Taipei has been extremely restrained. Being forced to remain passive was de facto humiliating for the Taiwanese government. Not only were the six training areas right under Taiwan's nose, but a Chinese warship came within ten kilometers of the coast, and of the eleven East Wind missiles fired by the Chinese Air Force on August 4, four flew across the island. This maneuver was clearly intended as a mockery of Taiwan's sovereignty. It should get used to maneuvers of such caliber in the future.

Of course, the U.S. was also the addressee. In the Taiwan Strait, the signal went, China has the locational advantage. The Chinese People's Army's ever-improving military and technological equipment and its ability to wage coordinated warfare give China the upper hand militarily. Even the feared U.S. aircraft carriers no longer have a deterrent effect.

From Xi Jinping's perspective, all three goals have been achieved. And of course he is well aware of the side effects of his military show of force. Taiwan, for example, as an exemplary democratic system, has probably never attracted so much global attention and sympathy as it has these days. Beijing's reputation in the surrounding countries, especially in Japan and South Korea, has suffered greatly. In addition, the startled West is mentally preparing for a possible Taiwan war and wondering what it can do to prevent it.
Although military exercises have not officially ended, Beijing is unlikely to make any more aggressive military moves, at least this year. Beijing must create a geopolitical environment in which China remains the authoritative link in global supply chains and an important location for foreign investment. Xi himself is aware of the domestic political and economic frictions that largely accompany his "zero covid" policy. It is therefore even conceivable that China will withdraw individual sanctions against Taiwan and the USA. What is at stake is the favor of the world public, but also the smooth running of the 20th Party Congress.

Either way, the military exercise has made clear that Xi Jinping has a script in mind for reunifying the two Chinas. Xi has repeatedly stressed that "resolving the Taiwan issue and fully reunifying China are a historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China."

His predecessors also had in mind to fulfill this historic mission at some point, but Xi Jinping is focusing on urgency. He wants to realize the mission during his term as part of the national renaissance, but also as part of his own ambition. It is no coincidence that the pop song "I want to go to Taiwan in 2035" stormed the charts in China. But the current "Taiwan Blockade" military exercise is also a demonstration of this determination.

In retrospect, it is an exaggeration to hold Nancy Pelosi personally responsible for all the turmoil. After all, even without her visit, such military maneuvers would have taken place sooner or later. Pelosi's solidarity visit to Taipei provided Beijing with a suitable "justification" for this. After all, an exercise of this complexity and magnitude cannot be planned in a week or two. The PLA had been preparing for the maneuver long before Pelosi's travel plans.

Even though things will become quieter again around Taiwan, the time will come when the question of reunification could lead to the dreaded major conflict. UN Resolution 2758, which in 1971 recognized the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of the Chinese people, already contains procedural provisions. However, it does not address important details: should Taiwan become a province of the People's Republic as a matter of course on the premise of a single China? Another shortcoming of the resolution is that it does not answer the question of how to deal with the de facto existence of two separate and independent state entities within the framework of "one China." If there is to be reunification, how is it to be accomplished?

As long as these questions remain unresolved, military conflict in the Taiwan Strait is inevitable. As it stands, the UN is incapable of resolving the problem. Moreover, a consensus between China and Taiwan is completely unthinkable at present. Then the growing sense of responsibility of the West, above all the United States, for the democratic island state inevitably leads to an increase in tensions between Taiwan and China. The whole thing is fueled by the decidedly opposing characters and values of Xi Jinping and Tsai Ing-wen.

The only question then is what form the conflict will take: Will the situation result in a military-economic stalemate, or will there be a violent reconquest, i.e., an all-out war?

It is misleading to believe that Xi Jinping's position is currently already so weakened that the 20th Party Congress will not only be a flop for him, but that he could even be voted out of office. On the contrary, the military buildup around Taiwan has strengthened his power.

In the coming years, the following trends will become the new normal: Taiwan under Tsai Ing-wen will continue to make efforts to achieve diplomatic breakthroughs in the international arena, and more personalities and organizations from the Western camp will pay their respects to Taipei. Such constant visiting traffic will put a strain on Xi Jinping's nerves. China has therefore already begun to warn Europe about it - a trip by EU parliamentarians to Taiwan is due soon.

The major Chinese military exercise, in turn, has significantly altered the security status quo, as PLA ships and aircraft will henceforth routinely train east of the previously respected centerline in the Strait. Vessels disguised as fishing boats or drones will also pierce this boundary more frequently. And Taiwanese authorities will be scratching their heads over how to respond.


In the medium term, foreign investors still have a few years to be active in China, spared from the war. But the time bomb of a full-scale conflict with Taiwan will explode during Xi's term. The world should be prepared for that.

Junhua Zhang, born in Shanghai in 1958, is a senior associate at the European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS).

--------

A blockade and economic strangling, or a war - the conflict will come, it is inevitable. The only question is to what degree the West then has freed itself from the dependency regarding taiwanese microchip production - or, with dollar-signs in the eyes, refused to accept realities and stuck its head into the sand and did nothign but feeding illusions and did more business as usual to raise more short-sighted "profits". When China takes over Taiwan and we still hang on the drip of Taiwanese chips, we can say good-night.

Time to learn from the terrible mistakes we made with Russian energy. We must learn fast. Super-fast - time is running out.