I'm getting the same issue from time to time, and I don't think it's related to an intentional reduction of deck gun accuracy because that would be... incredibly badly done, especially by the high standards of GWX.
Shots go off in the horizontal axis by far too much for an intended accuracy decrease especially at short range; it seems to have something to do with the offset rather than the angle. It's is also far too consistent/reproducable; as has been said you can still hit accurately if you take into account by how much the gun is off. The only thing this could model accurately is a broken/misaligned gun; not even operator error makes sense as the crew should either do this all the time or never.
There is some odd behaviour in the vertical axis that may or may not be intentional... sometimes the gunner apparently attempts to shoot down the moon, even in perfectly calm water.
This is slightly less jarring because that could be explained away by wave action (although it seems to be completely independent of the boat movement modeled in-game) and because it's not consistent - you can't simply fire at half the distance and rely on this error.
In either case, the current situation is that most shots are very accurate (not an expert, but more so than I would expect) and a few are so wide that I'm surprised I haven't shot my own conning tower off yet.
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