[Skybird]

Ikalugin,

at its tightest point, the street of Kertch is so narrow that its practically impossible to sail in its middle without violating the usually claimed 6 miles zones. Thats why the treaty of 2003 for the shared use of the Asowian and Kertch waterways/waterbodys was formulated to treat much of these as domestic waters of both countries. The strait at the passage under the bridge of the Crimean bridge West of the little island Tusla - that lies in the middle of the street of Kertch - is less than 8 km wide: 3.3 nautical miles.

Its quite clearly about putting pressure on the Ukraine by haunting its trade. The traffic from and to Mariupol and Bjerdjansk must pass through here, else the whole coast of the Ukraine in the region of the sea of Asow would be cut off from naval trade. And that is what this is about, from a Russian POV.


Porochenko on the other hand has become quite unpopular in the Ukraine, and there are upcoming elections. He must do somethign to keep the chances of his fraction and government, thats why he wanted martial law over all of the Ukraine - with parliament now having limited it to 30 days and only some provinces of the Ukraine falling under it. What purpose this ldrve militarily, is beyond me. But the whole manouver is aiming not at the Russian enemy anyway, but at the elections. For Porochenko, this incident is a blessed gift. And who knows, maybe the Russians want rioght this: assist him to secure he stays in power - and can continue to drive deep rifts into the civil society and the unity of the Ukrainian people. It may ocmpare to why Isarael always wanted to stay out of Syria and did noit like the West to move into Syria: for them, Assad was the lesser of the possible evils. For Putin, Porochenko maybe plays right into his intentions.

Russia started this latest of messy events. Porochenko happily joins it and tries to make best use of it for his own purposes.

That he had the nerves to demand German forces (NATO as well, but explicitely German forces) being sent and stationed in this area, I really take queer. Obviously he counts on us and NATO getting drawn into it all. Not only has Gemany not the military means to drop into a de facto embattled warzone that the eastern Ukraine is - demanding anything is what in this situation I take queer for principle reason alone already. We owe neither Porochenko in person nor the Ukraine in general anything. Even just asking, while acceptable in itself, would lead nowhere, since NATO is not willing to confront Russia under real martial conditions, nor is Germany capabe to do.

Putin does like long time ago I predicted: he keeps the conflict constantly simmering, to keep the Ukraine off balance and under threat of destabilizing further, keeping it weak that way. Stable peace with the Ukriane under any mutually agreed conditions - is not in the Russian interest, not locally, not globally.

That is why I am very pessimistic about the forseeable future of this conflict. If one side does not want peace in a war and instead has an active interest in keeping the war going, any negotiating is pointless. And for the West the risk simply is too high, and own interest in the matter to small. Possible that Putin one day may overplay it, and the latter point thus gets a fundamentally changed reevaluation. But this time has not yet come. And that means the Ukraine still is on its own, no matter what anyone thinks of that and what the sympathies are.