[Kapitan]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Still i would not underestimate brexit of having an impact. The exodus started in 2016.

Of course "When the pandemic struck and European trade slowed down, drivers were furloughed. Many went back to their home countries, to be with family.

But "Since the effects of Brexit, they haven't wanted to come back," explained Mr Gray.
"They can earn just as much in Germany, France or Poland, so there's no real need to be in the UK."

Since 1 January, EU citizens are covered by a new immigration system, which gives priority to high-skilled roles.
But HGV drivers are not among the list of eligible skilled occupations which means they are excluded from a skilled work visa.
So although it was Covid that made European drivers leave the UK, the new post-Brexit rules have stopped them coming back.

The Home Office said employers should "focus on investing in our domestic workforce, rather than relying on labour from abroad"."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-57656327

Can't expect Priti Patel to call back those bloody foreigners

In all honesty here Catfish I have never been against foreign labor working in the UK, like many nations the UK is built on foreigners. (it wasn't this that prompted me to vote leave either and yes I stand by my vote)

A big issue I have is a HGV driver must under go testing and re training every 5 years, yet is considered unskilled labor even though if I went an got a job driving a 360 on a building site I'm classified as skilled labor, this needs to change, HGV driving is a skill set in its own right and need to be recognized as such.

My biggest issues surrounding immigration is just how quickly it really did get out of hand and it couldn't be managed because we had to have an open border as part of the EU agreement.
I worked with a lot of Romanian, Polish, Bulgarian drivers employed many of them too and they were fantastic guys to work with.
Even they could see the affect the open border policies were having on their own countries, one of the drivers I worked with Marius went home to his own village which before joining had a population of over 10,000 people had only 2,500 people in it.
Lets not forget history here with the mass exodus and brain drain from East Germany in the 50's and 60's its the entire reason they built the Berlin wall to stop it.

They need to do what the USA Australia New Zealand and Canada do and that targeted immigration, This is the first time I have ever seen Truck drivers enter the list of in demand occupations in the USA, and they are giving priority to that group and I think the UK should do the same with a caveat which states you have to prove that you have previously worked in the UK for a UK company in order to get a visa (in this instance)
Going forward the visa supply should be as the need is required on a case by case basis like it is in the other countries mentioned.

Those countries rather than getting all the benefits of Europe and lets be truthful there are many benefits being in Europe ended up suffering because their own people got up and left, this clearly didn't help them countries.

When you look at what took place between 2004 and 2020 an increase of close to 10 million in the population that is un sustainable in the long term.
The UK infrastructure and housing just could not keep up, in London & South East they need to build close to 240,000 new homes per year to keep pace and right now they are managing only 100,000 per year.
That makes it almost impossible for young people to even get on the housing ladder.

Yes I'm lucky I own my own home in the UK outright and yes I have a second home in Canada.
My 3 bedroom bungalow in the UK is valued at £425,000 in reality a first time buyer has next to no hope of even being able to afford paying that market price. (and yes I am very lucky I do not deny that at all)

I also take issue with my own industry here as well and hold them predominantly to blame for the current issues, which is no fault of the EU (but they do have some fault to bare) in this respect and here's why.

When the first groups of migrants came over mainly from Poland haulage companies saw a big opportunity to exploit the new labor coming in.
Knowing that the UK £ was much better than the other currencies in Europe the companies basically started underpaying drivers.
If we look at it and what happened using this hypothetical (but near reality) scenario if Gregorz came in the door with a class 1 license he was getting £100 a day to do the same job as me and I was on £130 per day clearly no brainer you don't want me working for you I cost too much money.

Quickly other companies cottoned on and reduced the wages, the British driver was told that's the market now I'm afraid and if you don't like it that's just tough, well a lot of drivers retired early or left for other jobs.
This lead to under cutting of freight rates which made wage increases impossible, this lead to major mergers and smaller companies going out of business.
And by the way this wasnt just a UK issue it was happening in all the major western EU countries too.

To trace a family members wages in 1999 he was paid £500 take home per week, in 2009 that dropped to £460 per week take home and in 2018 it raise to £550 per week.
So in reality in 20 years the driver had a pay rise of £50 per week, now add on 2% interest and realistically its not much of an increase is it, and that was a decent wage (near top end) for a driver who under took general haulage spending 4-5 nights away from home per week.

The EU played its hand by forcing the UK to adopt the driver CPC which lead to the loss of 11,000 drivers across the country many experienced old hands , this mandatory certification costs the driver out of their own pocket and even though they have to legally note it down as work they often will not be paid to do the course, those who do do the course and the company pays for it often the company doesn't pay the driver to attend.

On top of that when the UK wanted to introduce the UK Levy where non UK Commercial vehicles pay £12 per day to use the road the EU challenged this saying it was unfair to non UK transport companies.

Is it fair that a UK truck has to pay road tax in Germany, France, Netherland, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Luxembourg? so why is it ok for them to charge us and we not charge them?

Can you see why the UK operator was a bit miffed ?

http://transportoperator.co.uk/2016/...enge-nonsense/

The EU also stepped in to dissuade the UK (and this is mostly the fault of the UK) to enforce cabotage, which required non UK HGVs to do 3 moves and out, what we saw was foreign trucks being sent over for months doing domestic works at much cheaper rates and the UK haulier couldn't do anything about it, yet if the UK truck did this in Germany or France or some other countries it would end up in a massive fine.

So again you can see why UK companies were miffed to the back teeth.

But this isn't entirely about the EU this is about a global shortage of just about everything and everyone.

Here in Denmark and in Sweden factories like Volvo has come to a standstill..lack of components.

Volvo supply chain USA is also suffering the same issues, the Mexico plant has been closed down and re opened which has meant truck deliveries are well behind (16 months) engine manufacturers in the USA have also suffered with cummings and Detroit suffering as well as other manufactures.

Right now the USA is being propped up in food from Canada, its laughable that Iowa the potato capital of North America is importing potato's from Manitoba and Alberta.
I have seen a massive influx of grains and cereals to the USA much more than 2019 or 2020!
The best thing that happened to Canada that meant we can help out the USA is China embargoed Canola, Peas and Pork now its being diverted to the USA to help keep their food chain going.

How many people in western democracies are able to grow their own food?

Quite a few as it goes, the USA has substantial agricultural power as does Canada, Australia, and New Zealand these are export nations and able to feed their own population to a degree, as I explained earlier the USA is short in some food areas right now.

Countries like the UK are unable to produce anywhere near enough to feed the population and is a net importer of food, in 1984 the UK produced enough to feed the population for 302 days of the year, the balance tipped and it declined substantially.
Since 2004 its less than 230 days, and with the population increase that will only get lower and lower as we use more and more farm land to build houses. (currently going on in my own home town)

There are hiddne shortages over here, too, Catfish, due to broken supply lines. The fiasco in the suez Channel, the problems in that one big Chinese mega harbour and Corona quarantines count for that. Mainly it is still about supplies needed in the producing industry. It gets felt my riasing prices, longer times you have to wait for something or someone, and products unavialable (PS5 as an exmaple, or cars delivered without certain computer-run features and just one smart key because of chip shortages). Myself I am waiting since 10 weeks for an electricion to show up to repair a wall mont, and he will not come before another 4 weeks. Here, another factor weighs in: demographics, and general shortages in qualified craftsman.

I placed a new test order for Ubiquinol from the UK. Lets see whether it runs better early this year. Back then the order stalled completely and the involved company said they retire from continental business completely. I hope it works, saves me an awful lot of money even with now increased custoimes and shipping. Shipping time is not so much a concern, as long as it finally arrives they can even take several weeks, if they want. German prices: 60x 200mg Ubiquinol 70-90 Euros. UK price if you check carefull and look out for good offers: 365x 200mg 75 Euros including VATS, plus customs. It does not compare.

Shortages are affecting me here in Canada as well, my fridge died in November 2020 I had to buy a new one, because of covid and the slow down it arrived in February 2021, many others were waiting until June and July.