To say the situation is precarious would be a gross understatement. The fact that Turkey is now facing a critical economic crisis only serves to ratchet tensions tighter. Faced with his current internal problems, Erdogan may believe military options could actually stabilize his control with a wavering populace. Dangerous men become doubly dangerous when their power is threatened.
I actually think he is seeking to rebuild the Ottoman Empire by drawing in the support of other Arab nations. If "Western" powers could be blamed for staring a conflict with Turkey it might well be surprising who would support Erdogan--as players line up for the spoils. Militarily Turkey is very strong. Getting support from just a few key Arab nations could upset the balance enough that the EU and even the US would not want to get involved. With problems Trump faces at home, he would be reluctant to engage in any conflict let alone one that involves another NATO country. The current political climate in the US could prevent him from taking action.
Russian involvement would probably be limited to diplomacy. Putin probably would stand to gain more by letting things happen and then trying to tap into potential rewards at the end of any conflict. His pipelines in the North would become much more valuable. Putin is pragmatic. He'll do what he thinks is more profitable with the least cost to Russia.
If the only countries willing to stand up to Turkey are France, Greece, probably Egypt and handful of other lesser powers, Erdogan would be tough to stop. His only real military weakness might be his navy. And if he really wants the US to stay out of it, a logical way to insure that is to kick off before the November elections in the US.
I really hope I'm wrong but there are just too many countries saber rattling right now. All it needs is one incident to light off the powder keg.
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