Those are all excellent points; however, I think something else is going on in the particular case of the invasion of Java. The circumstances are unusual yet the same in either zone: one uncharted TF that the player discovers via proximity and can defeat using extremely aggressive tactics, and one charted TF following that can't be located, even in multiple attempts over several careers.
I assumed I had just missed the second eastern convoy previously, but once I finally bit the bullet and took the western route (I avoid the Java Sea whenever possible) and discovered the same pattern, it changed my mind. That's when I blockaded the narrowest point in the Celebes Strait and watched the phantom TF appear first off Davao, then only a few dozen km NE of my position. I was slightly to the left of the center of the Strait, in line with their predicted approach, but they never appeared on my SJ-1 scope, despite waiting several days. I repeated this experiment an equal distance on the other side of the strait. Nothing.
Using realism factors of around 30%, I can contact a fleet TF in at least 80% of patrols, even in ridiculous times like early August 1945. These phantom TFs though? Never.
I suspect it may have been intended to give the player a chance to do his part against the invasion while maintaining its inevitability.
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