I found a very interesting article in the Swedish News paper aftonbladet. se.
By W. H
Have used google translate
"Secrecy creates speculations
Short summary.
Are we one hundred percent sure that a violation of Swedish waters occurred? Answer: No.
If the place is Russia, where the prime suspect? Answer: Yes
Can there be any other type of NATO? Answer: Yes
The grainy image of what could be some kind of submarine adds very little in practice. Although military experts can not seem to say what it is that tipster caught on picture
The picture is additionally taken two days after the surgery published. I suspect it will turn up many grainy images of defense for underwater vehicles as public speaking in the archipelago, but that could just as well be seals, rocks in the water or driftwood.
The quickest releases picture suggests that it is the only "picture proof" defense has for the suspected violations.
The defense also rejects SvD's data on emergency call and shaken submarine but is more vague with regard to encrypted communications
"Worth remembering"
Amid the hysterical atmosphere that prevails, it may be worthwhile to recall some things.
Sweden's ability to hunt submarines are much worse now than in the 80s. Because they suspected violations ceased soon after the Soviet collapse as has been piecemeal poised down the Swedish ability.
If a violation actually occurred, there is little chance that the defense will bring up the submarine, mini submarine or whatever it is. Not even in the 80's with all the felled depth bombs defense managed to get up any foreign vessel or nation determine the invaders with one hundred percent certainty.
From the Swedish side, it's as much about showing that you are on the ball and that we have the capacity to respond to violations
Russia has by his conduct in the last year all by themselves qualified for the main suspect in the case, the case of a violation.
The Kremlin has ordered its border defenses to behave very aggressively towards the outside world. It has flown risky near Swedish signals intelligence plane in international waters and ostentatiously displayed its vapenbestyckning. Russian ships have almost rammed a research vessel. A series of threatening behavior has been observed both in the Baltic and elsewhere
What do the Russians want?
So it is very clear that Russia wants to show that it has increased its presence and that it is back as a dominant military power.
The question was a possible underwater violation fits into the picture
Would Russia in fact that Sweden will discover that our waters are violated? Since we already know with certainty that Russia violated our territory in the air and generally behaved threateningly, is there any reason why you would not do it even underwater
The general objective may be to intimidate the Baltic countries and in Sweden's case, a warning not to take any further steps towards NATO membership.?
But if one wanted to keep secret intrusion and uncovered by accident so is Russia's objective another. Then will the Russian military may collect information about Swedish submarine defense for use in possible future operations.
In some ways, a more worrying scenario.
Although NATO submarines in the Baltic Sea. In theory, it is quite possible that, for example, the United States violates Swedish waters in order to put the blame on Russia. However, it is less likely as Sweden now collaborating so closely with NATO. Something we did not in the 80s.
On the basis of what we so far know for sure, it is still no guarantee that everything is a fake. Perhaps no one violated Swedish water whatsoever. The fact that several people have seen anything suspicious which is then interpreted is entirely possible.
Now that the Swedish military operation is generally known, it is difficult to see why the military would continue to conceal concrete evidence if you have any.
The Navy may have their own purposes in interpreting witness testimony in a certain direction.
"May have overreacted"
For many years, the Navy's ability to hunt a foreign underwater vehicles refitted down like the other defense. Now that the defense will be strengthened again comes to stay ahead to get increased funding.
I do not claim that the defense found on the violation but they may consciously or unconsciously have overreacted.
Defence secrecy and lack of facts contributing unfortunately that it is possible to speculate in all possible directions "
Markus
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