In my experience and in the current game state, the ships will individually change their speed. Some of them will decrease it, other will increase, and they will be changing it to keep the convoy together.
Have an eye on the smoke, while wind isn't implemented, it's an easy way to know what a ship did, just compare with the original angle. You could go with a calculator, newspeed = originalspeed x tan(original-smoke-angle) / tan(new-smoke-angle). You may do a table too.
I prefer do it judging by eye, or just taking the half of the ship lenght to calculate its speed (I'd like an vertical hovering line on the identification manual, toghether with the current horizontal for calculate ship height).
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