[Skybird]

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/26/p...ame/index.html

If China were to seize one of Taiwan's outlying islands, the US would have few good options to respond without risking a major escalation and a war between the superpowers, according to the conclusions from a recent war game conducted by foreign policy and defense experts.The scenario, outlined in a report from the Center for a New American Security, began with China using military force to take control of Dongsha, a tiny atoll in the South China Sea between Taiwan and Hong Kong, where approximately 500 Taiwanese troops are stationed.
This type of limited aggression could be a precursor to the seizure of other islands near Taiwan or an outright invasion of the democratically governed island as Beijing seeks to test and prod Washington's resolve to defend Taiwan.But once China has established its own military footprint on Dongsha and removed the Taiwanese troops, the US had no credible way to compel China to return the island to the control of Taipei, the report states.

https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/f...441&focal=none

the way the United States responds to smaller-scale territorial Chinese aggression
may affect Chinese future decision-making; if the United States allows Chinese coercion or aggression to
go unopposed, China may extend its aggressive behavior elsewhere and may even posit that the United
States wouldn’t defend Taiwan from invasion. Such actions, or lack thereof, could undermine deterrence
by calling into question U.S. willingness to uphold its security commitments.

With Chinese assertiveness rising, U.S. and Taiwanese policymakers need to think through the challenges
of responding to a crisis strongly enough to defend their security interests without turning crisis into conflict.
By gaming out these challenges, the United States and Taiwan can fully grasp the urgency of building an
effective deterrence strategy now to help prevent a future Chinese fait accompli.