Thread: Black swans
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Old 11-20-08, 04:33 PM   #6
AntEater
Grey Wolf
 
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Hmm, I don't like the idea of suddenly emerging events.
For the immidiately involved, it maybe seems so, but if you look at his historical examples like 911 or the first world war, all of those were the result of a long process before and most likely would have happened in a different shape.
I mean if the 911 terrorists somehow failed, it wouldn't have meant that Osama suddenly stopped plotting.
The next operation of that size or the one after that would've caused a similar devastation in the US and would have triggered a similar response.
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