Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Christopher Snow
If Obama takes and holds office for more than a few months (lawsuits notwithstanding), I think you will have cause to regret your enthusiasm this night.
I think you in the EU will very quickly come to realize the AMERICAN SECURITY RUG has been pulled right out from under you.
It won't be long before the Russians realize it too (and begin to press westward.)
Here's a hint for you (oh too late to DO anything about it, but that's the way the real world works I suppose: A SOCIALIST US will NOT be able to support it's end of NATO.
Which means you in the EU are SCREWED. We will no longer have the actual economic strength (let alone the willingness) to support you..and you will not have planned (or put aside savings) in the eventuality of our "failure to provide for your safety."
So the Russians can march right in...and we can't do anything about it (moreover, Obama wouldn't, even if he could--it would be too unpopular for a new President, don't you know...)
...or....
you can hope the Russians aren't feeling their oats.
Do you feel lucky? Do ya?
CS
|
Right, let's tackle this with a bit more common sense, kay?
First of all, in case of the US, it is not so much about US support for Europe against Russia. Russia has a gross domestic budget comparable to Portugal. They are big with sabre rattling, just like in the cold war era, but there is not much substance behind it to pose a real threat, especially with Russia's number 1 money maker, oil, going to the bottom right now and the country's economy beeing in big big trouble thanks to their Georgia adventure, which caused investors to leave the country, amplified by the financial crisis. Russia has some very basic and deep running domestic problems and is in no state to pose a serious threat within the next 10 years minimum as long no madman with a twitchy finger comes to power. But in such a case it really does not matter what a state the US is in anyways.
What is going to happen is that Obama will ask the Europeans for more support in Afghanistan. And given the current and ongoing debates in Germany about the Afghanistan deployment, and I think ppl here are slowly becoming aware we are fighting a real war there, I expect german and european policy to change to a more agressive stance there, which should help the US quite a bit. As you can see, it is not so much about support from the US to Europe, but vice versa. The US currently is in no condition, from a military POV, to make annother commitment anyways.
What you need to realize is the following. The US lost big time in the last 8 years. I do not know how much this got to the US population, but the world has seen the US becoming a ruthless, almost criminal country from its former status as a beacon of light for the west. Bush utterly corruped and destroyed the picture the world has had of the United States, and this plays a huge role in actual politics, how well the US is recieved and how open other nations are to US leadership and proposals. This does not go for it's allies alone, but to all of the world. The US simply lost respect and authority big time, to a degree much worse then any military debacle in Iraq or Afghanistan could have achieved alone. To regain this morale authority, a capital not as obvious as purely economic or military might, should be the US highest priority. It's more subtle then raw power, but in the end so much more effective in making a country's interest succesfull when it comes to behind the door talks and more importantly, acceptance of the population of any given country.
Now, I am not into US domestic politics too much. I have my personal stances which I am more then willing to make clear, but I seriously do not care "that" much if the US is socialist, social democratic or purely capitalistic. It's your choice what a country you want to live in and it's system. But, from an international POV, voting Obama into Office propably was the biggest gain in international respect the US ever got in one night. You got a huge bonus here after the Bush years, and the world will be willing to listen once again. Bush practically played no role anymore on the international stage. Nobody took him even remotely serious. That to change should even be in the interest of republicans.