I think it's by radar. But certainly, the bombing of your ship would be much tougher in a storm, as that relies on visual cues. Given that visibility is only ~600M for a big ship, an airplane would probably have to get within a few hundred meters to spot your sub. Not very likely, and nearly impossible with just the snorkel IMO. Now, I don't know if the game codes for that, but airplanes are less active at night and in stormy weather in my experience.
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