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Old 10-16-08, 05:25 AM   #35
Rockin Robbins
Navy Seal
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: DeLand, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vanjast
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockin Robbins
Finding targets was a mathermatical probability directly proportional to the number of square miles of ocean surface searched. Every square mile not covered meant fewer Japanese ships on the bottom.
Ultimately proven by the code breakers that this method had a minor effect, as there were not enough boats to cover the whole ocean, whereas knowing where the convoys would be at a certain time, proved to be the 'weapon' of choice. Thus allowing a commander to lay in wait (submerged of course).
A fine observation for those rare times when other circumstances made a counter strategy useful, but 95% of the time they were developing targets on their own and maybe 5% in pursuit of an Ultra target.

If you were correct, sinkings would have been more uniformly distributed among boats. In fact, a few boats with bolder search strategies dominated the fleet in the last year of the war, especially including Barb with Admiral Fluckey. Search as I've laid out was almost alone responsible for producing the most decorated boat and crew of the war. Fluckey's promotion to Admiral Lockwood's job afterwards tends to lend credence to my conclusions.

The code breakers didn't know anything about submarine strategy. They were just experts in interception and interpretation of enemy communications. Their information was often sketchy, imprecise or wrong. When they were right the typical run to the required position had to be on the surface WFO to a location not quite possible to reach in time.

If they DID arrive on time, they would, of course, slow down. But submerging would be a terrible strategy if you're expecting a convoy headed your way. Your first means of detection would be your radar. To use that you would at least have to be at radar depth. Then you have to be ready for extended evasion after the attack. This demands full batteries that you would not have if you lurk submerged waiting for them to appear. In the game you can hover at zero speed. A real sub couldn't do that under normal circumstances. In any event, waiting submerged any longer than absolutely necessary would severely handicap your chances of success in attack and/or surviving the encounter.
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