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Originally Posted by Tchocky
Rounding the turn into the fourth week of September, President Bush's lead over Massachusetts Democratic Sen. John Kerry seems to be somewhere in the mid-single digits. The differences between individual polls are amazing, however, ranging from Bush ahead by 16 points all the way to a statistical dead heat.
According to the handy RealClearPolitics average of national public polls, the president has a 6.8-point advantage in a three-way race over Kerry and independent Ralph Nader. The average was 6.5 points in a two-way, Bush-Kerry trial heat and the president's job approval rating averaged 51.1 percent. All three averages cover national polls released over the most recent seven-day period.
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Ahhh, Tchocky. I see what you mean but you're forgetting the third party candidate angle, and potential voters from those blocks. Not to mention, that the polling I just looked at from 2004, Kerry was showing leads within the margin of error in late October and still lost. This same thing happened with Gore, but only a more narrow subset. Basically, you can compare those years polling results, and look at today and see that the Obama camp may have something to worry about. I take polls with a grain of salt, but they usually always favor the Democrat......then the election happens. If Obama and McCain are within the margin right now, I have doubts that is a good thing for Obama.
Edit to add: Thanks August, you beat me to the third party point.
