Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Tchocky
Quote:
|
So add 10 points to McCain automagically for those that refused to give their opinion.
|
Ha, why ten? |
Historically, Democrats always have the lead in the polls about this much time before an election. I believe Kerry was up by 12% against Bush last time around. Gore's results looked similar. Bush won both times. I don't know what's going to happen in November, but the fact that Obama and McCain are within the margin of error right now, it's a good bet that McCain's true polling would be well above Obama. Ten percent may be a conservative estimate.
Bottom line, if Obama is not up by at least 12% right now, I'd be worried if I were a Democrat.