Skybirds posts are a perfect indication that moral people will always be the ones f....ed by the warmongers.
I simply don't buy the "just war" thing anymore, it has been done to death.
The "nuclear proliferation" is just an assumption, nothing more. Interestingly, Pakistan (directly or indirectly) sponsors pretty much every stupid terrorist there is, without ever giving them nuclear material sofar.
Why can't they simply revert to cold war logic? If somebody has nukes and launches them, he will be wiped out, it is as simple as that.
Regarding military options, there are a few problems:
If there is a limited strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, there is no 100% guarantee that every last facility will be destroyed.
With Israel, I doubt they can even pull this off, but with the US using B-2s and cruise missiles and a concerted air campaign from carriers and Iraqui bases, they could.
What would be the result? Ok, for now the threat is gone, but Iran could now officially announce they have the right to develop such weapons and publically announce that. The result would be some kind of perpetual semi-war against Iran, with airstrikes every now and then against selected targets.
Nobody could stop Iran from offensively expand terrorism in Lebanon and engage in small scale warfare in the straits of Hormuz. Keep in mind that even if the US navy wins control of the Straits of Hormuz, the oil price will still go through the roof, just because every tanker sailing there would be under the potential threat. Even if the US Navy has everything under control, the pressure on the markets would not subside.
Not to mention the costs of convoying them until the end of hostilities. And in such a quasi war, the hostilities might linger on for a decade or so. I wouldnt be suprised if the oil price would double in that chase, and this would simply crash the worldwide economy. Militarily it would be Gaza/West Bank on a scale of thousands of kilometers and quite one sided too, but economically, it could be fatal for the worldwide economy as it exists. Keep in mind our globalized free market is not made for international crises, as it always strives to operate at peak efficiency to keep shareholders happy, there just no leverage anyway to write off losses or cover dry spells. It is a fragile system, and the Iran situation might really make things go south economically.
In fact, the only war against Iran that would make any sense would be a full scale invasion. A land drive to Teheran with serveral divisions. Occupy the country, let the son of the Shah return and keep the Iranians under control again for the US. Such a war would take some time, cost casualties ranging in the thousands on the "coalition of the willing" side and maybe hundreds of thousands on Iranian side.
But I see neither the political will nor the actual capacity to launch such an offensive. Also the problem is that the starting point, Iraq, is not exactly the safest operational base either.
All said, such a war would be over some time, limiting the economic damage.
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