[Pablo]

Hi!

I think the answer is probably out there, but it would require a huge amount of digging through archived records - maybe a PhD project in International Relations or National Security Studies. You would need to track a significant sample (or all) of the sailings of neutral merchant ships from all ports during the war, and get the following information from each sailing, such as:

• Was the cargo subject to seizure or destruction under the Hague Conventions?
• Did the ship's captain illuminate his ship at night, or did he sail blacked out? Did he change practice during the voyage?
• Did the ship sail in convoy at some part of each voyage, or was it always alone?
• If the ship did not reach port, do we know for sure that a U-boat sank it?
• Was the distance traveled between ports a factor?
• Was the relative success of U-boats in the area a factor?

Pablo