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Originally Posted by DeepIron
NK couldn't afford a long-term war without fiscal support from somewhere else. NK arms and mobile infantry is really outdated and I imagine the war would degrade into a guerilla action as we've seen in Viet Nam and now in Iraq.
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For a guerrilla war to be successful, there needs to be a refuge and there needs to be a source of supply. (Funding is generally, but not always, necessary. Remember
Spiderman 2 opening with the superhero delivering pizza to stay alive? Even guerillas need to buy stuff. There are examples to the contrary, but money is always useful.)
In Vietnam, the refuge was North Vietnam and some neighbouring 'neutral countries' and the source of supply was North Vietnam, PRC and the Warsaw Pact. The same situation obtains in Iraq and Afghanistan, more or less, although both of these latter are honeycombed with caches.
If North Korea invaded, the odds of them being able to use PRC territory as a refuge are pretty slim. Beijing doesn't mind having unstable countries around, so long as they aren't around
them. If there was a clear understanding, even under the table, that the war would not move north of N Korea, the Chinese would probably sit it out. Indeed, an argument could be made for them invading themselves to try and bring some stability to the area (remember all those unconventional weapons?).
On the other hand, given the mindwashing there, guerrillas would probably not have to work too hard to find support from the people - classic Maoist strategy. But even Mao had to retreat to an inaccessable spot to lick his wounds at one point - the Long Walk.
Bottom line? It's a mess and is unlikely to get better.