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Originally Posted by XabbaRus
Time for a big war, methinks...
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the current one did not help, but even contributed it'S share to the detoriation of things in the past two years, especially the oil price. Before the invasion of Iraq, the oil price was calcuated to be stable around 23-30 $ for the next ten years AT LEAST- and the costs of risen Chinese and Indian demand already were included. the price we see today and that is obviously beyond 30$ is caused by one half by speculators and investors using oil business as an investment fortune - a relatively new phenomenon, since investors usually gamble with other kinds of enterprises - and the other half is caused by the Iraq war.
So if a new war should help in any way, this time it would need to be a worldwar against all creditor nations to destroy there demands by overturning these nations. While the US has waged many wars against small opponents that in the beginning were perceived as inferior since WWII, it always evaded bigger enemies that could strike back. So I would say the chances we see this scenario in action are relatively thin. It also would be beyond the capacity of the US military which is already stretched, and I assume the American people also would not play ball.
And China with it'S life-threatening dollar-reserves - China is not weak enough anymore to play it against the wall this way, or in any other way. The average American cannot afford to buy goods "made in America" anymore, and many therefore buy "made in China" for that reason - that tells us something.