As I linked here:
http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=131843 ;
it is not only the law of supply and demand, but also a lot of speculators haunting the business (45%) who effectively distort the business tremendously.
However, guys, lets face it: in the next 20-30 years, oil's best times are over, and the old rules of when an oil field is considered to be non profitable anymore will no longer apply. Means: they will be run for longer, but that costs more money, and thus the oil prices will climb.
If the speculation component is not deleted, I would not be surprised to see a price of 200 dollars and more within the next 5-7 years. Within the next 20-25 years, I take the reaching fo that price mark as a given. If, as Brad thought loud, the business keeps to the dollar, which I consider to be in doubt. The pressure to overthrow the american monopole to print money as it likes is too hurting for too many parties, including OPEC, China, europe, and last but not least Russia. Why would any reasonable mind expect that the world agrees to damage itself eternally for the benefit of American fiscal interests alone? even more so since after the still not climxed mortgage crisis - now the American credit card crisis (too many people no longer can pay for the debts made with their credit cards) in the US is raising over the horizon? That one is doomed to become the next great fun, I tell you.
Where have all the bubbles gone,
that used to grow beyond the sun?
-long time passing-
Where have all the bubbles gone,
brokers blew them everyone.
-long time ago-
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?