I noticed after installing the Armageddon expansion that things certainly became more ahistorical than before. I had weird situations developing in the Balkans and France attacking me very early (as Germany.) None of which had happened before. In terms of major AI events, things seemed much the same as before: Munich, Czechoslovakia, Danzig and so on triggered historically enough.
Don't get me wrong, none of this is a complaint. The Balkans thing - where Italy basically dragged Bulgaria, Turkey, Greece, Romania and Yugoslavia into a crazy multi sided war was a real blast. I ended up having to send down a Heavy duty 'Peace keeping' force in order to smooth things over which was rather interesting considering I was getting ready for Barbarossa at the time. It was a lot of fun.