Are the proximity of ship explosions modeled into damage?
I had a simalar situation where I was lined up with a great plot, pop the scope up only to find gale conditions on the surface

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Since I suck at sonar ploting I had the bright idea to back up to within 100 yards of the plotted target course, set battlestations and set fire at will.
Sure enough, as soon as she came through the fog all hell broke loose and exploded before slipping back into the fog. 10 seconds later I get a slew of damage reports, mostly aft and 85 percent hull damage.