[CaptainHaplo]

What-if scenarios are not just based on what the Japanese could have done - but also the state of things and the reaction.

What if the major carrier elements of the USN had been moored in Pearl during the attack? Had they been catastrophically crippled like our battleship force was, the war in the pacific would have been entirely different. The ONLY reason that we responded with carrier forces is because thats all the heavy firepower we had left. The navy brass at the time still felt that heavy warships (BB's and CA's) were the "backbone" of the fleet and would be the major combatants in the coming future conflict. Make no mistake, naval planners in the 30s were planning on having to face the Japanese.

The idea of Carrier warfare for the US was not borne of great inspiration, it was developed out of dire need. This is not to say that even the loss of our carriers as well as the rest of our surface navy would have insured a Japanese victory, but it would have extended the war tremendously.

Where the German blunders were either broadly tactical on a large scale (such as base location for the Luftwaffe) or strategic (such as the Western Invasion) - the Japanese made the mistake that the CSA in the Civil War made. They didn't really have any strategic vision - no long term goal other than to expand in whatever direction presented itself. Other than the attack on the Phillipines and the attempt to take Midway (which was folly - whether we had Ultra or not!), they really never focused on attacking the US after Pearl Harbor. Instead they looked for whatever target of opportunity could be exploited. This is what led to the creation of ABDA, which the Japanese promptly ran all over. ABDA was a polyglot collection of various naval vessels that was to defend certain areas. The only reason ABDA was smashed was it was in the way.

The Coral Sea battle is a perfect example - it was designed to defend against, and possibly eliminate Australia from the war. While I have nothing against my Aussie friends, its not like Australia was the big dog on the block in the Pacific. The Japanese saw an opening tactically they thought they could exploit. But expansion without a goal is reckless - and Coral Sea set the Japanese up for defeat at Midway.

The other thing that cost Japan was its "death before dishonor" and fanatical devotion to Hirohito. While I normally dont draw "modern" parallels - the rank and file military were told that upon their deaths they would immediately be in heaven due to their service to the Emperor. This was told to not just kamikaze pilots, but the army and navy as well - be it banzia charges or the human torpedo's that were created. This not only is a horribly ineffective waste of manpower, but it creates a "no retreat" policy that did not allow the Japanese to withdraw and consolidate along a truly defensible perimeter in the pacific. This is also told to the extremist who are encouraged to blow themselves up with as many civvies as they can so they can go to "heaven" and get a bunch of "pure girls" to enjoy eternity with.... Just something people should think about on occasion.

Lastly, the foolishness of not insuring a land corridor up the coast to where they could just sail raw materials across a small body of water instead of leaving their supply lines vulnerable to the enemy is insanity. Especially when our subs started really hurting them. They had the ability to secure a northern corridor, they just never thought of it. With them, it was Attack Attack Attack until they had wasted their strength. Once that was done, the war was over for them.